Front Page Picks (Fri., Jun 6)

Willie Bee · 06-06-08, 11:17 AM

Lincecum, Giants -110 at Nationals

Game Time: 06/06/2008 07:35 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | covers.com

San Francisco's offense came to life in their recent series against the Mets, and with Tim Lincecum on the mound tonight the Giants should handle the Washington Nationals.

The Giants head to the East Coast to start a four-game set with Washington. San Francisco is coming off a series loss at home to the Mets but the offense showed a big spark in that series, averaging 6.3 runs per game in that three-game series.

The Giants are 8-6 over their last 14 games as the pitching has allowed three runs or fewer in half of those games while the offense has scored six or more runs in half as well. San Francisco has won six of its last eight road games heading into Friday.

Washington snapped a four-game skid with a victory over the Cardinals last night in the second game of its doubleheader. It was just the fifth win in the last 15 games for the Nationals who have not won back-to-back games since May 18-19. The offense exploded for 10 runs in Game 2 after scoring a total of two runs in the previous four games. Washington is hitting .234 on the season including .236 at home, both of which are dead last in all of baseball.

All Tim Lincecum does is throw quality outings. He has tossed 11 straight quality starts and his lone non-quality effort came in a relief appearance in his first game of the season against the Dodgers. The Giants have won his last three starts and are 8-3 overall including a 4-1 record on the road. Lincecum’s ERA actually dips from 2.23 to 1.72 on the road where he has allowed no home runs. He faced Washington once last season, allowing just one run in seven innings of work.

Jason Bergmann came back to reality in his last start as he allowed four runs in eight innings against Arizona. The outing wasn’t horrible but all four of those runs came on solo homers. He had gone three straight starts without allowing a run but Washington came away with just one win during that span and that was a 1-0 nail biter.

Bergmann has a 5.03 ERA at home this season and the Nationals are 0-3 in his three home start, in part because the offense has averaged just 2.3 rpg in those contests. Play San Francisco for 1½ units.

Free Pick: Giants -110

accuscoresucks · 06-06-08, 11:49 AM

nice post willie

thanks for sharing

the_orangekat · 06-06-08, 11:51 AM

Willie Bee · 06-06-08, 12:50 PM

Brewers -140 at Colorado Rockies

Game Time: 06/06/2008 09:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

The Rockies won four of six from the Brewers last season, including a three-game sweep in Coors Field. But Colorado is hurting now while Milwaukee has won nine of 10 coming in.

Our Friday night MLB selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers in the Mile High City over the Colorado Rockies.

This is the first meeting between these two teams in 2008, and although the Rockies pretty much owned the Brewers last seaon, taking four of six games and outscoring Milwaukee 50-22 in the process, this is a much different Rockies team than in 2007. For one thing, Colorado currently has three of its biggest offensive weapons (if not their best offensive weapons) – outfielders Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe, and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki – on the DL right now.

Secondly, one of the Rockies' best young starters down the stretch last year, right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez who was a nice surprise for them in the 2007 playoffs, has been simply horrific this season with a 1-6 record and a 5.37 ERA. And Colorado is an even worse 1-11 in games which Jimenez has started.

The Brewers have a few injuries as well, but they all involve their pitching staff and their potent offense is perfectly healthy at this point. TTonight's starter, right-handed veteran Ben Sheets, has been brilliant lately and the Brewers have to be thrilled that he finally seems to be healthy.

The Milwaukee bullpen has been solid with a 2.31 ERA in its last three games, while the Rockies pen has been quite the opposite (10.43 ERA in their last three). Take the Brewers.

Free Pick: Brewers -140

Willie Bee · 06-06-08, 12:51 PM

LA Angels -120 at Oakland Athletics

Game Time: 06/06/2008 10:05 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

The top two teams in the AL West meet in a crucial weekend series, and the Game 1 edge sits with John Lackey and the Angels against Joe Blanton and the Oakland Athletics.

The Angels open a weekend series with the Athletics in a matchup of the top two teams in the American League West when John Lackey takes on Joe Blanton.

Since his return to the starting lineup, Lackey has been a model of consistency, lasting seven or more innings in all four starts with a 1.80 ERA. And according to our MLB Weekend Cheat Sheet, he's also 7-1 with a 1.81 ERA in his last eight team starts against Oakland while Blanton is 4-7 with a 3.32 ERA his his MLB career team starts against the Halos.

By the book, we'll back Lackey and the Angels against Blanton and the A's here tonight.

Free Pick: Angels -120

accuscoresucks · 06-06-08, 12:54 PM

yeah funny willie

Willie Bee · 06-06-08, 12:57 PM

Play Pirates +140 vs. Diamondbacks

Game Time: 06/06/2008 07:05 PM -
By: Scott Spreitzer | phoenixsports.com

Even with Brandon Webb on the hill for the Diamondbacks, Arizona is not a team that should be laying this chalk on the road. Play the Pittsburgh Pirates and Ian Snell on Friday.

I'm playing the underdog Pittsburgh Pirates with Ian Snell on Friday night at home in PNC Park.

Arizona has been an absolute mess away from the desert and should not be laying this high of a price to anybody, even if Brandon Webb is the starter. The Diamondbacks can't be stopped when matched up against fellow NL West opponents. But they're an anemic 12-20 against the rest of the league. And to show just how "fake" their status as "division leader" is, Arizona has gone 2-11 in their last 13 road games.

In fact, they have lost 12 of their last 16, overall, no matter where they've played. Making matters worse (or better for us) the D-Backs are 1-4 in road night games against right-handers where they score an average of just 3.6 runs per game.

Meanwhile, the Pirates have won back-to-back contests and they're a healthy 17-12 at home this season. Snell takes the bump tonight and while his overall stats look bad, he's actually pitched quite well at PNC. The Bucs are 3-1 in his four home starts where the righty sports a 3.55 ERA in 25.1 IP. Snell is 2-0 in four starts against Arizona in his career, allowing only seven earned runs in 24.2 innings of work...a 2.55 ERA!

There's no denying Webb's successes again this season. But Arizona has lost each of his last two road starts, where he's allowed seven earned runs and 19 base runners in just 11.1 IP. That's an un-Webb-like 5.76 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. So, you can see why I believe this price has been heavily inflated due to faulty public perception. I'll take the value and back the home team Pirates on Friday.

Free Pick: Pirates +140

Willie Bee · 06-06-08, 01:00 PM

San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals Under 7½

Game Time: 06/06/2008 07:35 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

Two right-handers in good form go at it in DC tonight with Tim Lincecum on the bump for the Giants and Jason Bergmann for the Nationals. Take the Under in this one.

Tim Lincecum (7-1, 2.23 ERA), the San Francisco Giants starting pitcher, has been extremely consistent this season as is evident by not allowing no more than three earned runs in any of his 10 overall starts.

This kid is a star in the making, and is currently one of the top rated throwers in my power ranking system. He is backed by a viable bullpen with a 3.68 road ERA.

His pitching opponent, Washington's Jason Bergmann, is also currently in top form, allowing a total of just four earned runs in his last 20 + innings of work for a stingy 1.74 ERA. His biggest problem remains his own team's lackluster offense, especially when facing right-handers like Lincecum. Note that the Nationals are hitting righties for a lowly .219 BA on the season.

Bottom line: Two light hitting offenses and two quality work horse pitchers make for what I think will be a low -coring snooze fest.

Final Notes & Key Trends: Washington has gone under in 11 of 13 games against right-handers this season, with the average combined score clicking in at 6.8 RPG. Play Under.

Free Pick: Giants-Nationals Under 7½ (-105)

Willie Bee · 06-06-08, 01:05 PM

Baltimore Orioles +160 to surprise Marcum, Blue Jays

Game Time: 06/06/2008 07:07 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Blue Jays may have a tough time recovering from that loss to the Yankees yesterday, and O’s starter Burres pitched seven scoreless innings last time in Toronto.

Now we have a lot of respect for what Shaun Marcum of the Toronto Blue Jays has done this season, but the Baltimore Orioles seem to ooze value at this price here.

Now we realize that Brian Burres has been plagued by the home run ball in his last two starts, but he did allow three earned runs or less in six of his previous seven outings, and he also tossed seven scoreless innings the last time he pitched in Toronto, so he is certainly capable of getting himself straightened out here. Besides, at the earliest hint of trouble, Baltimore always has a quality bullpen to fall back on, as they rank third in the American League with a 3.18 ERA.

Now we like Marcum a lot, but even we must wonder if he has pitched over his head to this point, with a fantastic 0.94 WHIP in 78.2 innings. After all, Marcum does not blow people away and he often pitches to contact, and while he has been vintage Maddux-like in keeping the ball off of the fat part of the bat, is he really this good or is a correction in order? Besides, the Jays may be a bit fragile after that devastating loss to the Yankees yesterday, when they blew an early 7-2 lead and a two-run lead with two outs and nobody on with their great closer B.J. Ryan on the hill in the ninth inning.

That was they type of loss that could have some residual effect for a game or two, and given that the Orioles have been surprisingly competitive thanks to some great pitching, they get the call at this rather inflated price.

Free Pick: Orioles +160

Willie Bee · 06-06-08, 01:07 PM

Lackey, Angels -120 at Oakland A's

Game Time: 06/06/2008 10:05 PM -
By: Dave Cokin | phoenixsports.com

Both teams enter this one off sweeps earlier this week, but the Angels have the pitching advantage tonight behind John Lackey over Joe Blanton and the Oakland Athletics.

The Angels and A's open a key weekend set in Oakland tonight with John Lackey slated to throw for the visitors against Joe Blanton.

Both teams come into the series in excellent form off series sweeps to start the week. The key here should be the starting pitching. Lackey has basically owned the Athletics forever and he's been superb following a stint on the DL to start the season.

Blanton is doing his usual adequate job eating innings and keeping his team in the game. But he's been unable to do much winning at home, where he's just 1-5 for the year. I'm banking on those numbers to play true here and I'll back the Angels as moderately priced road chalk.

Free Pick: Angels -120

Willie Bee · 06-06-08, 01:11 PM

New York Mets and San Diego Padres Under 7

Game Time: 06/06/2008 10:05 PM -
By: Doc's Sports | 10starpicks.com

Mets left-hander Johan Santana will find San Diego's Petco Park to his liking, and with the Padres' offense powerless, the Under should cash when the teams collide Friday.

This is Game 2 of this series between the Mets and the Padres, and takes place Friday night at Petco Park in San Diego.

Both teams send southpaws on the mound in Johan Santana going for New Yorks and Randy Wolf going for San Diego. Santana has been plagued this season by the home run ball and pitching in Petco's big dimension should offset that.

The Padres have had trouble scoring runs all season long and thus this sets up for a big play with the Under.

Free Pick: Mets-Padres Under 7 (-115)