Math Man 2011 MLB plays

[million2one]

What's up people, Math Man here bringing my talents to the MLB.
I am big time stat guy and math teacher and have some methods that I've tested over the years, only for sports involving spreads however.
I had some success with NBA this year and am testing out my methods to games involving money lines.
If you have seen my plays before you know I play mostly underdogs, so I presume the same will hold true in the MLB.

I will play these for very small amounts each for one unit.
Any and all help is appreciated.

I am looking at some other angles that may come about, one being a three game chase, and one is playing prop bets. But for now just straight bets.

[million2one]

Going to the dark side here. May come with some more for the later games

Bet 1: New York Yankees (+125)

[darkenergy]

Wanna wish you best of luck on your first pick of the thread, but I'm on Tiger.
Best of luck to this thread

[million2one]

Bet 1: New York Yankees (+125)[/B]

Good way to start the thread, still unsure here in the early going if I should just play one game or multiple games.
Last night would have been a good night for me to make multiple picks, so I'm gonna go with that theory for now.

Bet 2: Washington Nationals (+190)
Bet 3: Cleveland Indians (+116)
Bet 4: Chicago Cubs (+140)
Bet 5: LA Angles (+142)

You see I am all about value and making units, don't care so much about win %.

YTD: 1 - 0 +1.25 units

[LGHT]

Good call yesterday. I also had Yanks and was still shocked that a team who is 7-3 was not favored against a team who 3-7!!

I can understand hoping to cash in on dogs always making + money. Overall it's a good method as bullpens far too often determine the outcome of games when 2 good pitchers are throwing.

Out of all your plays I think WAS has the best chance of pulling it out with hernandez who already beat philly once this year going 6.2 innings and only giving up 1 run. If he can hold them down again until the 7th the pen isn't that bad with an 3.23 overall ERA.

The biggest problem with WA is they can't hit for beans! They are hitting .213 as a team and only 1 team in the entire league has an lower team hitting average. That's probably the biggest reason they are such a dog!

I think Philly wins a close one at home 4-1.

GL

[cobeez]

good luck man. I will be following your thread to see how you do and take the chance to ride your hot streaks.

[mp5070]

Lets do it, mil

[million2one]

Bet 2: Washington Nationals (+190)
Bet 3: Cleveland Indians (+116)
Bet 4: Chicago Cubs (+140)
Bet 5: LA Angles (+142)

That's how I do.
2 - 2 on the night but picked up some units, gotta love the dogs.
Not sure where to go tonight as the teams I like already picked up wins in their series'.
This is a work in progress and will get a better feel for what to do as the season rolls on.
So not playing anything tonight.

YTD: 3 - 2 for +1.81 units

[million2one]

It looks like most of my plays are going to come from the beginning of new series'.
Lots in play for today so here is the value I am liking.

Bet 6: Tampa Bay Rays (+106)
Bet 7: Kansas City Royals (+114)
Bet 8: Colorado Rockies (+105)

[million2one]

Taking another stab with TB

Bet 9: Tampa Bay Rays (-101)

Be back later with update and more plays

[DIRTYDIRTY]

cant wait lovin the doggg plays thanx

[million2one]

Thanks DIRT, so close yesterday as the Rockies were up 3 - 0 and their bullpen blew it, and Kansas City only lost by one run.
Even though I went 1 - 2 yesterday I am encouraged.
One more play for today

Bet 10: Atlanta Braves (+105)

[million2one]

It looks like most of my plays are going to come from the beginning of new series'.
Lots in play for today so here is the value I am liking.

Bet 6: Tampa Bay Rays (+106)
Bet 7: Kansas City Royals (+114)
Bet 8: Colorado Rockies (+105)

YTD: 4 - 4 for +0.86

[million2one]

Bet 9: Tampa Bay Rays (-101)

Bet 10: Atlanta Braves (+105)

No harm, no foul as I break even for the day.
Tampa Bay has been good to me, gonna ride 'em out in this series.

Bet 11: Tampa Bay Rays (-120)


YTD: 5 - 5 for +0.86

[million2one]

.

Bet 11: Tampa Bay Rays (-120)

Rode Tampa Bay like a cheap hooker and it felt good.
Hoping some dogs will cash for me today.

Bet 12: New York Mets (+161)

Bet 13: San Diego Padres (+125)


YTD: 6 - 5 for +1.86

[million2one]

Bet 12: New York Mets (+161)

Bet 13: San Diego Padres (+125)

0 - 2 last night, but again both plays lost by just one run, perhaps I have to start playing the +1.5 run line.
Not yet though, I am staying the course and trying to cash with some big dog plays tonight.

Bet 14: Chicago White Sox (+109)
Bet 15: Arizona D-Backs (+165)
Bet 16: New York Mets (+145)
Bet 17: San Diego Padres (+148)
Bet 18: Detroit Tigers (-105)

YTD: 6 - 7 for -0.14

[million2one]

I am also adding a three- game (series) chase system to my thread for shiggles.
I am only doing this chase for SBR points, for now, and to see if there are other ways to make bank.

Series Chase system:
Chase 1: Atlanta Braves (-205)

[wade1]

Chase system will kill you, stick with the dogs

[GaryDN]

Yankees are old and boring Time for new blood. NY Mets

How crazy is that???

[million2one]

Chase system will kill you, stick with the dogs

Thanks Wade, I totally agree with this, just having some fun and is why I am only using my SBR points.
Chase will be totally separate from the units I am tracking in this thread.

[million2one]

Taking an early game, still some work to do, so be back later with a full update.

Bet 19: Detroit Tigers (+111)

[million2one]

Bet 14: Chicago White Sox (+109)
Bet 15: Arizona D-Backs (+165)
Bet 16: New York Mets (+145)
Bet 17: San Diego Padres (+148)
Bet 18: Detroit Tigers (-105)

Needed one more win to get the big night last night.
My only play for today has been posted above.

YTD: 8 - 10 for -0.69 units

[million2one]

Bet 19: Detroit Tigers (+111)

That's more like it, back in the green with a below 50% win clip, gotta love the underdogs.
Of course San Diego gets the win today, where were they in the first two games when I took them.
No much action tomorrow so possibly no plays until Friday


YTD: 9 - 10 for +0.42

[million2one]

Taking a shot with the early game here.

Bet 20: Tampa Bay Rays (-107)

[million2one]

Bet 20: Tampa Bay Rays (-107)

Adding two more plays for today.

Bet 21: Kansas City Royals (+177)
Bet 22: Seattle Mariners (+136)

[million2one]

Bet 20: Tampa Bay Rays (-107)
Bet 21: Kansas City Royals (+177)
Bet 22: Seattle Mariners (+136)

Thank you K.C. for making a good night, tempted to take them again today, but they just missed by cut for me.
More Dogs, watch them both lose by one run, I'll kick myself.
Still mulling over this concept and may have to start taking the +1.5 run line for a half unit if this keeps happening.
Anyone out there play the run lines? Are you having success?

Bet 23: Arizona DBacks (+166)
Bet 24: San Diego Padres (+159)


YTD: 11 - 11 for +2.19 units

[million2one]

Series Chase system:
Chase 1: Atlanta Braves (-205) (-200) (-177)

Almost forgot this joke of a system, or chase system.
Almost lost all my SBR points on my very first chase play.
**THIS CHASE IS JUST FOR FUN, AND SBR POINTS, I WOULD NOT RECOMMEND THIS TO ANYONE**

Series Chase System:
Chase 2: Tampa Bay Rays (-177)

YTD (Chase System): 1 - 0 for SBR points

[freeagent]

Good luck with your plays man, keep hammering away!

[million2one]

Bet 23: Arizona DBacks (+166)
Bet 24: San Diego Padres (+159)

Feel like I'm walking in mud playing these underdogs.
Got an early game today, how can I pass on the Phils with these odds.

Bet 25: Philadelphia Phillies (+150)


YTD: 11 - 13 for +0.19 units

Series Chase System:
Chase 2: Tampa Bay Rays (-177)

On a brighter note.

YTD (Chase System): 2 - 0 for SBR points

[jorge1]

Great work my man..keep it up!

[million2one]

Bet 25: Philadelphia Phillies (+150)

Gonna start taking stab's with these run lines.

Bet 26: Baltimore Orioles (+156)
Bet 27: Baltimore Orioles (+1.5)(-140)


YTD: 11 - 14 for -0.81 units

[million2one]

*THIS CHASE IS JUST FOR FUN, AND SBR POINTS, I WOULD NOT RECOMMEND THIS TO ANYONE*

Series Chase System:
Chase 3: Cincinnati Reds (-153)

YTD (Chase System): 2 - 0 for SBR points

[million2one]

Bet 26: Baltimore Orioles (+156)
Bet 27: Baltimore Orioles (+1.5)(-140)

Damn, so close with the O's last night.
It was a good time to play the run line at least. I think I'll continue to play the run lines when the odds are not so crazy.


Bet 28: Cleveland Indians (-105)
Bet 29: Milwaukee Brewers (+108)


YTD: 12 - 15 for -0.81 units FYI Dogs are risk one unit, Faves are to win one unit

*THIS CHASE IS JUST FOR FUN, AND SBR POINTS, I WOULD NOT RECOMMEND THIS TO ANYONE*

Series Chase System:
Chase 3: Cincinnati Reds (-153)

On another note chase is off and running.

A = 2 - 1
B = 0 - 1
C = 1 - 0

YTD (Chase System): 3 - 0 for SBR points

[BOSTONFAN]

Gl with your plays

[million2one]

[quote=million2one;10026375]

Bet 28: Cleveland Indians (-105)
Bet 29: Milwaukee Brewers (+108) [quote]

Break even last night, not much for me today.
But I do have a rare favorite that sticks out to me.
I am always leary about taking a big fave so gonna play it safe and take the -1 RL, maybe put some SBR points on the ML.

Bet 30: Oakland Athletics (-1) (-122)
Bet 31: Oakland Athletics (-176) Decided to go for it


YTD: 13 - 16 for -0.81 units