SOLID PLAY for Early 5/20 (1:05 ET Start)

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Deke101
    SBR MVP
    • 11-15-07
    • 1213

    #1
    SOLID PLAY for Early 5/20 (1:05 ET Start)
    New York Mets (22-19) @ Atlanta Braves (22-21)

    Pitching:

    Mets: John Maine (5-2) 2.81
    Maine is 2-2 on the Road with an ERA of 3.33
    Maine is 2-1 in Day Games with an ERA of 3.63

    Bullpen has a 5.09 ERA on the Road. Usually going 2.6 IP and allowing 1.8 Runs.

    Braves: Tom Glavine (1-1) 4.41
    Glavine is 0-0 (in 2 GS) at home with an ERA of 6.52
    Glavine is 0-1 in Day games with an ERA of 15.43
    (This was from a day game at home vs. Cincinnati where Glavine gave up 6 ER in 4.2 IP. Final score was 14-7 Braves.)

    Bullpen has a 2.82 ERA at Home. Usually going 3.7 IP and allowing 1.5 Runs.

    Batting:

    Mets Averages:
    5.0 Runs in All Games
    5.4 Runs in Road Games
    5.0 Runs vs. LHP
    5.6 Runs in Last 7 Games

    Hitting Percentages:
    .284 vs. LHP
    .266 on the Road
    .260 in Day Games

    Braves Averages:
    4.8 Runs in All Games
    5.8 Runs in Home Games
    5.6 Runs vs. RHP
    4.0 Runs in Last 7 Games

    Hitting Percentages:
    .283 vs. RHP
    .312 at Home
    .299 at Home

    Based on these numbers:

    Mets will score 5.25 Runs (based on their average runs scored in those 4 categories).
    Braves will score 5.00 Runs (based on their average runs scored in those 4 categories).

    That totals 10.25 before you factor in the pitchers poor ERA's in the categories, and the good batting for each team as well.

    Concerns: The Mets/Braves rivalry that may keep the game under control as far as runs go. These teams met twice earlier this year in Atlanta in early April. The first game was 11-5 Braves with the Pitchers being Maine/Hudson. The second game was 3-1 Braves with the pitchers being Santana/Smoltz. Obviously Santana and Smoltz are better than the other two.

    I feel very confident that both teams are going to score runs.

    PLAY:

    Over 9 (-120)
  • Deke101
    SBR MVP
    • 11-15-07
    • 1213

    #2
    I have to wait until the morning to get the line from bodog. Roughly around 10am central I think...and hopefully i get a good line. As of now, I still plan on playing this very strong.
    Comment
    • j$
      SBR MVP
      • 03-07-08
      • 3831

      #3
      I just played the under 9 -105
      Comment
      • j$
        SBR MVP
        • 03-07-08
        • 3831

        #4
        great stats
        Comment
        • AgainstAllOdds
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 02-24-08
          • 6053

          #5
          If you like laying wood, Mets are the best play here...
          Originally posted by SBR_John
          AAO = good dude. Buying you a drink in Vegas buddy.
          Comment
          • j$
            SBR MVP
            • 03-07-08
            • 3831

            #6
            Originally posted by AgainstAllOdds
            If you like laying wood, Mets are the best play here...
            Only lay the wood on my girl
            Comment
            • j$
              SBR MVP
              • 03-07-08
              • 3831

              #7
              honestly this game puzzles me anything could happen
              Comment
              • nysmoneyman
                SBR MVP
                • 04-13-08
                • 3101

                #8
                it happens every time...u feel the over has to come in and then it goes the other way...went with the under 7 1/2 in the cin/cle game...both pitchers have lowest ERA in baseball...got burned again

                CIN 6, CLE 4Volquez (7-1)Lee (6-1)
                Comment
                • Deke101
                  SBR MVP
                  • 11-15-07
                  • 1213

                  #9
                  Originally posted by nysmoneyman
                  it happens every time...u feel the over has to come in and then it goes the other way...went with the under 7 1/2 in the cin/cle game...both pitchers have lowest ERA in baseball...got burned again

                  CIN 6, CLE 4Volquez (7-1)Lee (6-1)
                  Very true. Things happen the opposite of what you'd think sometimes. That total even moved to 8, and obviously it shouldn't have been that high I thought.
                  Comment
                  • LT Profits
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 10-27-06
                    • 90963

                    #10
                    Over may not be bad here, but I like value of Braves as home dog better. See Underdog thread for longer writeup.
                    Comment
                    • Deke101
                      SBR MVP
                      • 11-15-07
                      • 1213

                      #11
                      I just woke up for the day to see that the line went to 9.5 -110. I don't mind giving up a half a point for -110 instead of -125...

                      If I had to pick a side, I would lean towards the Braves +115 for value. But it can go either way. Someone wins 6-5 late...
                      Comment
                      • LT Profits
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 10-27-06
                        • 90963

                        #12
                        Originally posted by AgainstAllOdds
                        If you like laying wood, Mets are the best play here...
                        Be careful AAO! Braves kill righties at home and Maine had his worst start of the year here. I bet Braves +125 on 5 Dimes overnights, and the line movement here suggests sharps are with me.
                        Comment
                        • Deke101
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-15-07
                          • 1213

                          #13
                          Line just bumped in favor of the under.

                          9.5
                          Over -105
                          Under -115
                          Comment
                          • Deke101
                            SBR MVP
                            • 11-15-07
                            • 1213

                            #14
                            The under is getting pounded...its now to

                            Over 9.5 EVEN
                            Under 9.5 (-120)

                            If it comes back to 9 I'm putting more on the over..
                            Comment
                            • LT Profits
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 10-27-06
                              • 90963

                              #15
                              OVER 9.5 +100 could be good, or if you don't mind laying juice, OVER 9 -130 at 5 Dimes.
                              Comment
                              • Deke101
                                SBR MVP
                                • 11-15-07
                                • 1213

                                #16
                                Originally posted by LT Profits
                                OVER 9.5 +100 could be good, or if you don't mind laying juice, OVER 9 -130 at 5 Dimes.
                                I'm only set up at bodog. I've looked into other books but they all have cashout fees and weird deposit setups. Plus I think bodog is the easiest to use as well.

                                Glad to see you like the Over too LT. Your the first one to comment in my favor.
                                Comment
                                • Deke101
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 11-15-07
                                  • 1213

                                  #17
                                  I still love this play despite the line movement and I regret jumping on it so early. I wish I would've waited and got Over 9.5 +105 and I shoulda waited on the Braves too because I took +115 and its at +122. Oh well...game time.
                                  Comment
                                  • Deke101
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 11-15-07
                                    • 1213

                                    #18
                                    4-1 through 6 innings. Alright Mets time to get some runs now...Glavine is out now and Ohman is gonna give up some runs and let the Mets back in it. Lets atleast get a closer game going so we can see a bottom of the 9th.
                                    Comment
                                    • Deke101
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 11-15-07
                                      • 1213

                                      #19
                                      Mets can't hit these lefties right now.

                                      And also can't be leaving guys on base, we need an inning with more than 1 run being scored. Gotta rally. Can't just scrap a run and give up for the inning. Both teams will get to the heart of their line-ups still too (if the Braves can get some hits going this inning)...
                                      Comment
                                      • Deke101
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 11-15-07
                                        • 1213

                                        #20
                                        Perfect At Bat by McCann, grinded it out from 0-2 to a full count then hit a 2 run homer...exactly what I need and its stil no outs. Braves will get back to the top of the line-up in this game...and the Mets will get to theirs. Come on..3 more runs
                                        Comment
                                        • j$
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 03-07-08
                                          • 3831

                                          #21
                                          Sorry bout the under...told u ...I had a feeling it was going under....Seems like when a pitchers hirtorically good against a team that it doesnt matter whos on it , but Glavine proved today he is still good against the Mets. I cashed the under and braves +113..Gl next game bud
                                          Comment
                                          • McBa1n
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-02-06
                                            • 2642

                                            #22
                                            set your watch to the mets losing to atlanta a LOT
                                            Comment
                                            • nysmoneyman
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 04-13-08
                                              • 3101

                                              #23
                                              next time u get the urge and everyone says look out...lay it down and pick another game...that's what i do
                                              Comment
                                              • SexyMit
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 10-12-06
                                                • 6139

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                OVER 9.5 +100 could be good, or if you don't mind laying juice, OVER 9 -130 at 5 Dimes.
                                                I think Lt is the one that made the line move on the Atlanta game today...
                                                If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!

                                                I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
                                                Comment
                                                • Deke101
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 11-15-07
                                                  • 1213

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by j$
                                                  Sorry bout the under...told u ...I had a feeling it was going under....Seems like when a pitchers hirtorically good against a team that it doesnt matter whos on it , but Glavine proved today he is still good against the Mets. I cashed the under and braves +113..Gl next game bud
                                                  Congrats...I took the Braves so it didn't hurt too bad. The Mets definitely didn't pull their weight, but you can say that after any losing bet. The stats pointed to the Over, you just said under with no explanation, that doesn't help me much. And there is no such thing as "hey everything points to this, so lets take the opposite" Because if there was such a thing, then you wins at sports betting? Oh well...I got winners tonight, haha.
                                                  Comment
                                                  SBR Contests
                                                  Collapse
                                                  Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                  Collapse
                                                  Working...