Originally posted by jolmscheid
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I'm just lucky I use such a conservative money management system. I am down over 200 units and touched less than 20% of my bankroll.
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Monday May 16, 2001
16 – Kansas City Royals +104 (I actually picked up a +115 line earlier)
16 – Kansas City Royals +1.5 -160
16 – Atlanta Braves -225 (only bet to win 1/3 of unit size)
16 – Atlanta Braves -1.5 -110
BTW don't upgrade to 4.0 for Firefox, my BetOnline account javascript stopped working. I had to remove 4.0 and re-install 3.6 to get it working again. Apparently this is a known issue with javascript and Firefox peeps are working on it, stick with 3.6 and you will be fine.
BoL to us all,
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Damn!! KC losing 19-1, that is just crazyOriginally posted by DukeJohnMonday May 16, 2001
16 – Kansas City Royals +104
16 – Kansas City Royals +1.5 -160
16 – Atlanta Braves -225
16 – Atlanta Braves -1.5 -110
I don't know guys, ya might be better off fading my picks. I haven't had too many winning days. By now the systems should be working really well and they still aren't. The only change will be when another filter is added in June.
Best of luck to us all,
MLB 2011 Season – Free Picks System Record
52 - 68 43.33% :: ROI= -7.49% ::Units= -22.46
MLB 2011 Season – Personal All Systems Record
82 - 102 44.57% :: ROI= -20.43% ::Units= -209.79
MLB 2010 Record Final
255 - 170 60.00% :: ROI= +19.69% ::Units= +269.39
MLB 2009 Record Final
ROI = +26.11%Comment -
Tuesday May 17, 2011
17 – Kansas City Royals -104
17 – Kansas City Royals +1.5 -165
Let's hope they don't get beat down this time.
Best of luck to us all,
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Well congrats if ya started fading meOriginally posted by DukeJohnTuesday May 17, 2011
17 – Kansas City Royals -104
17 – Kansas City Royals +1.5 -165
MLB 2011 Season – Free Picks System Record
52 - 70 42.62% :: ROI= -8.38% ::Units= -25.15
MLB 2011 Season – Personal All Systems Record
82 - 105 43.85% :: ROI= -21.46% ::Units= -214.56
MLB 2010 Record Final
255 - 170 60.00% :: ROI= +19.69% ::Units= +269.39
MLB 2009 Record Final
ROI = +26.11%Comment -
Wednesday May 18, 2011
18 – Kansas City Royals +123
18 – Kansas City Royals +1.5 -140
Yes, riding Kansas into the ground
Gonna need more than luck,
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ouch. I don't really see this pick winning. Ogondo piching for Texas. Good luck tho.Originally posted by DukeJohnWednesday May 18, 2011
18 – Kansas City Royals +123
18 – Kansas City Royals +1.5 -140
Yes, riding Kansas into the ground
Gonna need more than luck,
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Originally posted by ace_awarenessIn-the-end at least it was a close one, going into extra innings. At the bottom of the 10th the score was tied and KC had bases loaded with 1 out, I thought for sure they would finally get the win, but nope Texas managed to hold them off and in-the-end Texas took home the win.Comment -
Ended up even here but down a little with all my picks.Originally posted by DukeJohnWednesday May 18, 2011
18 – Kansas City Royals +123
18 – Kansas City Royals +1.5 -140
MLB 2011 Season – Free Picks System Record
53 - 71 42.74% :: ROI= -8.38% ::Units= -25.15
MLB 2011 Season – Personal All Systems Record
83 - 107 43.68% :: ROI= -21.70% ::Units= -217.96
MLB 2010 Record Final
255 - 170 60.00% :: ROI= +19.69% ::Units= +269.39
MLB 2009 Record Final
ROI = +26.11%Comment -
Thursday May 19, 2011
Finally a day off. No picks today, no day of losing money, unless you are fading me of course
You guys take care and I will see ya Friday morning.
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Yeah, that was scary. I thought I lost for sure at that pointOriginally posted by DukeJohnComment -
LOL, I bet soOriginally posted by ace_awareness
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HAPPY BIRTHDAY SIS!
Friday May 20, 2011
20 – Philadelphia Phillies -162
20 – Philadelphia Phillies –1.5 +135
Being my sisters birthday and all, hopefully I can bring in a win.
BoL,
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Originally posted by DukeJohn
20 – Philadelphia Phillies -162
20 – Philadelphia Phillies –1.5 +135
MLB 2011 Season – Free Picks System Record
54 - 72 42.86% :: ROI= -8.38% ::Units= -25.15
MLB 2011 Season – Personal All Systems Record
85 - 108 44.04% :: ROI= -21.11% ::Units= -209.48
MLB 2010 Record Final
255 - 170 60.00% :: ROI= +19.69% ::Units= +269.39
MLB 2009 Record Final
ROI = +26.11%Comment -
Don't forget, today is the End of the World or at least the Rapture, so make sure you plan accordingly.
Saturday May 21, 2001
21 – Toronto Blue Jays -193
21 – Toronto Blue Jays –1.5 +110
Wait! am I the only one still here? Damn! oh no, no damn, sorry just slipped out...
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HA HA....go get 'em today Duke!
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Duke, i like your style, and know a MASSIVE turnaround is due to get your current numbers "in the same ballpark" statistics-wise to that of the two previous years.
Point of clarification tho'...what we're getting in this thread is the "Free Picks System"...currently composed of 126 plays with a -25.15 units (-8.38% of bank as you'd recommend) due to a 42% hit rate that is WAY UNDER your 60% rate for the previous year. This is basically 0.67% flat stakes (0.333% ML + 0.333% RL) per selection.
What about the remaining 67 plays that you add to the above to get the "Personal All Systems Record", which must be performing at a rate of 31-36 and a whopping -184.33 (61.44% of stake). Such a huge unit magnitude (pos or neg) on such a small (5 game) win-loss difference means these plays are staked much larger on average.
Are you running a Dr.Jekyl/Mr.Hyde betting life...small grinding on two-thirds of your plays...and "balls to the wall" (12% of bank/36 or your units on avg) for the remaining plays.
I like the carefully-grinding Dr. Jekyl side we're seeing on this thread...any place we could find the Mr. Hyde plays...
I'd also like to know, if it's not too much of a hassle is to get a breakdown of the % of MLB2010 units caused by the super-conservative Free-Picks system vs. the cocaine-rush heavy-betting Remainder.Comment -
Originally posted by jolmscheidHA HA....go get 'em today Duke!
Thanks
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Originally posted by fitguy67"Free Picks" vs "Personal All Systems"
My personal all systems picks are weighted heavily depending on several filters and/or factors. Some are chases and some are just heavily weighted. For example this last play was weighted by a factor of 10 or about 10 units, now if I was chasing, wow, that would have been a huge amount of units come to the end, but of course this was not a "chasing" type play for me.
As for the Free Picks, what I am posting, I never back tested this type of straight up betting for the MLB, so this first year with it isn't really going so good, although, this is not a typical year either, so there is that. I still believe somewhere deep down I can turn around my personal system, but as for the Free Picks, idk, it seems almost impossible, but we shall see what happens.
My personal systems and the methods for picking them and even the weights of the picks are not posted anywhere due to this is my way of life, how I put food on the table, a trade secret and I just will not give out that information. However, I suppose a really, really good mathematician, could somehow figure it out, but that would be a hell of a lot of work and if they could, well then they probably are already doing something else that makes them more money
Now, I was hoping the "Free Picks" system would be doing better, at least be having a winning pick percentage to give something back to the SBR community, however, unfortunately that is just not happening currently. Who knows, it may turn around, but it is pretty far down to come back from on a straight up system, but we can always hope.
Best of luck,
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Well, I guess the Rapture happened but none of us were worth saving.Originally posted by DukeJohn
21 – Toronto Blue Jays -193
21 – Toronto Blue Jays –1.5 +110
However, Toronto pulled out a nice win, maybe the only thing taken was my incredible losing streak...
MLB 2011 Season – Free Picks System Record
56 - 72 43.75% :: ROI= -7.68% ::Units= -23.05
MLB 2011 Season – Personal All Systems Record
88 - 108 44.90% :: ROI= -19.61% ::Units= -195.83
MLB 2010 Record Final
255 - 170 60.00% :: ROI= +19.69% ::Units= +269.39
MLB 2009 Record Final
ROI = +26.11%Comment -
Sunday May 22, 2011
No plays today. Enjoy the day and see ya tomorrow.
Have a wonderful day,
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The personal plays record is misleading to say the least, but it is how I keep track. The 67 plays are the same plays but across different systems.Originally posted by fitguy67
For example, lets say I had 2 systems that picked the Yankees, then I would count it as 4 picks.
Yankees - sys 1
Yankees - sys 2
Yankees - Free Pick
Yankees - Free Pick
Now if the Yankees lost horribly, that would be a 0-4 for my all personal record and a 0-2 for the Free Picks. So, there isn't any other picks, but you are right, my personal bets, while still conservative can sometimes take on a Mr. Hyde trait that can be very destructive, however, it can also be very rewarding.
Best of luck,
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Duke, Your thoughtful answer is much appreciated...Comment -
Monday May 23, 2011
23 – Cleveland Indians +105
23 – Cleveland Indians +1.5 -160
23 – Milwaukee Brewers -172
23 – Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 +120
23 – Philadelphia Phillies -163
23 – Philadelphia Phillies –1.5 +130
23 – Texas Rangers -152
23 – Texas Rangers -1.5 +130
Nice size betting card today
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Wow, hit the nail on the head this timeOriginally posted by DukeJohnMonday May 23, 2011
23 – Cleveland Indians +105
23 – Cleveland Indians +1.5 -160
23 – Milwaukee Brewers -172
23 – Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 +120
23 – Philadelphia Phillies -163
23 – Philadelphia Phillies –1.5 +130
23 – Texas Rangers -152
23 – Texas Rangers -1.5 +130
MLB 2011 Season – Free Picks System Record
64 - 72 47.06% :: ROI= -4.73% ::Units= -14.20
MLB 2011 Season – Personal All Systems Record
102 - 108 48.57% :: ROI= -16.20% ::Units= -180.88
MLB 2010 Record Final
255 - 170 60.00% :: ROI= +19.69% ::Units= +269.39
MLB 2009 Record Final
ROI = +26.11%Comment -
Tuesday May 24, 2011
24 – Colorado Rockies – G1 (DH) -170
24 – Colorado Rockies – G1 (DH) -1.5 +125
Only go to game 2 if Colorado loses the 1st game:
24 – Colorado Rockies – G2 (DH)
24 – Colorado Rockies – G2 (DH)
If Colorado wins the 1st game then the play is over. If they lose then take Colorado for the 2nd game and the -1.5 line too.
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Hey Duke, been away awhile, just wanted to stop in and see how the plays are going. I will continue to follow. Good hit today and yesterday.Comment -
ThanksOriginally posted by kjrudemi
It has been a good couple of days...Comment -
The -1.5 game was a push for me as there was a pitcher change apparently.Originally posted by DukeJohnTuesday May 24, 2011
24 – Colorado Rockies – G1 (DH) -170
24 – Colorado Rockies – G1 (DH) -1.5 +125
MLB 2011 Season – Free Picks System Record
65 - 72 47.45% :: ROI= -4.39% ::Units= -13.17
MLB 2011 Season – Personal All Systems Record
104 - 108 49.06% :: ROI= -15.79% ::Units= -178.82
MLB 2010 Record Final
255 - 170 60.00% :: ROI= +19.69% ::Units= +269.39
MLB 2009 Record Final
ROI = +26.11%Comment -
Wednesday May 25, 2011
25 – Colorado Rockies -123
25 – Colorado Rockies -1.5 +170
This pick is coming from my worst performing system. As a matter-of-fact, that system is currently at -185.84 units.... So, proceed with caution. Of course I am not, but that is me
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Well, par to the course, the particular system that made the above pick lost again. I, of course, will continue with it, however I will make note each time it picks a play, so you guys can stay clear of it, at least until IF or when it turns itself around.Originally posted by DukeJohnWednesday May 25, 2011
25 – Colorado Rockies -123
25 – Colorado Rockies -1.5 +170
MLB 2011 Season – Free Picks System Record
65 - 74 46.76% :: ROI= -5.13% ::Units= -15.40
MLB 2011 Season – Personal All Systems Record
104 - 111 48.37% :: ROI= -17.51% ::Units= -195.26
MLB 2010 Record Final
255 - 170 60.00% :: ROI= +19.69% ::Units= +269.39
MLB 2009 Record Final
ROI = +26.11%Comment -
Thursday May 26, 2011
26 – Colorado Rockies -158
26 – Colorado Rockies -1.5 +130
Above picks are from a system down -200.05 Units, proceed with caution.Comment -
Gl grinding away Duke..
Those systems of yours, are they trend based or stat based?
Do you use sabermetrics?Comment -
ThanksOriginally posted by greva
Some of the systems are pure stat based and some are triggered by trends and then filtered by stats.
As for Sabermetrics, I looked into it a couple of years ago, my biggest issue, I believe, if I remember correctly, was back testing. The amount of work required to back test would be staggering, so I gave up on it. It did look promising and with my money management system, I am pretty confident I would be able to figure something out with it, but I just do not want to put the amount of effort it would require to develop a profitable system.
Best of luck though if you decide to give it a try,
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What I have found over the years is that capping baseball is like capping horseracing. In the end you find who[ should ]win the race or game but not who[ willl] win. Thats why my wife can pick just as many winners as me and never looks at a statComment
