Big Dog MLB 2011

[bombCanada]

6/4:
Cubs +171 9.00u
Nationals +148 9.00u
Astros +140 9.00u
Twins +135 9.00u
Athletics +175 9.00u

Best luck!

[bombCanada]

gl with the dogs today, lets have a dog day!!!

thanks!

[bombCanada]

been out of town checking back in looks like +160 is the way to go?

rkelly is the man.

[bombCanada]

not meaning to brag or anything aye? lol
nah im kidding this thread is pumping and while this system is up a ridiculous amount (which is nice) i agree that 3 units is pretty much a bust system. too much work for such small return. this is simple and pays dividends.

a) part of keeping score is winning. Winning happens in different ways.

b) people get distracted by shiny pennies because they're shiny. Morrison has marketed the crap out of that system, and the books have caught on. Can you imagine me marketing this system and saying "never mind the system that never loses, this system loses more than it wins and makes a lot more money!" Most people can't wrap their heads around such a concept.

[bombCanada]

@bombCanada - Two questions -
1) betting rules for this 'system'? I did a quick search and couldn't find anything - I may have accidentally skipped over it (what without coffee in me)
2) Not to take anything away from sbr, but is there any interest in slapping your/system picks up on twitter, for those who can't get onto here?

1) they're here, and it's so easy a caveman could do it. Read from the beginning and you'll catch on.
2) No interest. It's a triumph of self discipline that I've only missed a couple of days here. Posting in 2 places would bury me.

[bombCanada]

They have so much shit going on in that thread.

I have JM's picks sent to me, he's 7-0 (official bets) since 4/26.
Undefeated in unofficial bets also. All together +10 or 11 units.

Yah, a lot of noise in there. Hard on the brain. is 7-0 seven winning chases?

How does he distinguish between official and unofficial bets?

But still, 11 units for the season? I admit that +200u is unbelievable and probably unrepeatable, but at 11 units 1/3 of the way into the season, and maybe 30 units for the year, well, that's a LONG day.

[bombCanada]

No problem, buddy. Just picking and choosing for even better money management.

I do print outs for each days games and some odds just jump off the
page at me. I then go back and see how they did. If I like the outcome,
I just track from there.

A lot of your picks don't turn into +160 odds until 11 am est at my book
and could be different for other people.

I could post the games if anyone's interested.

Be my guest... post away. The guy with no pants is interested. And so am I.

So what you take advantage of is favorites tend to get bid up. That's a time based luxury I don't have the time for. But some day!

[rkelly110]

Yah, a lot of noise in there. Hard on the brain. is 7-0 seven winning chases?

How does he distinguish between official and unofficial bets?

But still, 11 units for the season? I admit that +200u is unbelievable and probably unrepeatable, but at 11 units 1/3 of the way into the season, and maybe 30 units for the year, well, that's a LONG day.

Yes, now 8-0, 3 game chases. He picks teams who were swept previously
and playing the same team who swept them. It's a revenge thing. Official bets are w/in .15 RPI of one another. Un are .15 and over RPI. (Relative Power index)

He just got started and there aren't plays every day.

I can post the +160 plays when they come up.
I have that luxury being an unemployable old fart and all.

[YOWN650]

@bombCanada - Nono, I meant I'd take on that (twitter) side of things. it's an open offer - for those who can't get on here, but have phones for twitter.

[eldian]

gl with your plays today everyone, after every negative days comes a positive one, lets get some dog winners today!!!

anyone here keep a database or opening line and closing line?

[Tower]

Good luck!

[rkelly110]

Two +160 plays for today. Cubs and Oakland. Bet one unit on ML, bet to win 2 units on +RL.

These are the 1st for the month, let's get 'em.

[rkelly110]

Hard fought games, but 2 winners on RL. +2 units.

[Dollar Bin]

Hard fought games, but 2 winners on RL. +2 units.

Nice!

[bombCanada]

6/4:
Cubs +171 9.00u *lose*
Nationals +148 9.00u *lose*
Astros +140 9.00u *lose*
Twins +135 9.00u *win*
Athletics +175 9.00u *lose*

117-139 +183u

[bombCanada]

[bombCanada]

6/5:

Pirates +172 9.00u
Nationals +150 9.00u
Astros +164 9.00u
Twins +139 9.00u
Tigers +137 9.00u

Best luck!

[doesnotcompute]

This month is cursed! I did very well in May, then come June, I've been 0-6. Calling it quits for a while.

[rkelly110]

One +160 play for today. Pittsburg. Bet 1 unit ML, bet to win 2 units +RL.

Can they shut out the mighty Phils? I would say no, but I would lay money they will
be w/in one run. GL

[eldian]

Just some numbers for who ever is interested in tracking dogs with this system. Using 5Dimes opening and closing lines and playing each dog play at 1unit each these are the numbers I get up to June 4th 2011.

Opening Lines (5Dimes)
Dogs +135 and up
Total Plays - 309
W/L - 129-180 41.75%
Profit - +21.51u
ROI - 6.96%

Closing Lines (5Dimes)
Dogs +135 and up
Total Plays - 302
W/L - 125-177 41.39%
Profit - +19.87u
ROI - 6.58%

[rkelly110]

Nice numbers, eldian.

Sorry about Pittsburg guys. Home +160 doesn't fair too well. -1 unit total.

[bombCanada]

6/5:

Pirates +172 9.00u *lose*
Nationals +150 9.00u *win*
Astros +164 9.00u *lose*
Twins +139 9.00u *win*
Tigers +137 9.00u *win*

120-141 +203u

[bombCanada]

6/6:
Dodgers +176 9.00u
Nationals +190 9.00u
Twins +139 9.00u
Tigers +137 9.00u

Best luck!

[fenexusa]

Good luck

6/6:
Dodgers +176 9.00u
Nationals +190 9.00u
Twins +139 9.00u
Tigers +137 9.00u

Best luck!

[eldian]

Hey bombCanada, curious to why you didn't play the Cubs yesterday they were +150. They didn't fit the system or did you just missed the play. They lost anyways.

[eldian]

Up to June 5th 2011

Opening Lines (5Dimes)
Dogs +135 and up
Total Plays - 315
W/L - 132-183 41.90%
Profit - +22.87u
ROI - 7.26%

Closing Lines (5Dimes)
Dogs +135 and up
Total Plays - 309
W/L - 128-181 41.42%
Profit - +20.14u
ROI - 6.52%

[Tower]

Good luck today!

[rkelly110]

+160 play is LA Dodgers. Bet 2 units on ML, bet to win 3 units on +RL.

GL

[eldian]

Breakdown of Dogs. Lines used from 5Dimes. Each play 1U. Numbers updated to June 5 2011.

Opening Lines +100-+109: 90-91 41.42%, +3.20U, 1.77% ROI
Closing Lines +100-+109: 84-71 54.19%, +15.97U, 10.30% ROI

Opening Lines +110-+119: 70-78 47.30%, +1.82U, 1.23% ROI
Closing Lines +110-+119: 59-67 46.83%, +0.48U, 0.38% ROI

Opening Lines +120-+129: 52-65 44.44%, -0.78U, -0.67% ROI
Closing Lines +120-+129: 53-63 45.69%, +2.85U, 2.46% ROI

Opening Lines +130-+139: 42-51 45.16%, +5.36U, 5.76% ROI
Closing Lines +130-+139: 37-63 37.00%, -13.34U, -13.34% ROI

Opening Lines +140-+149: 37-46 44.58%, +6.86U, 8.27% ROI
Closing Lines +140-+149: 28-41 40.58%, -0.52U, -0.75% ROI

Opening Lines +150-+159: 21-33 38.89%, -0.56U, -1.04% ROI
Closing Lines +150-+159: 29-35 45.31%, +9.33U, 14.58% ROI

Opening Lines +160-+169: 24-30 44.44%, +9.43U, 17.46% ROI
Closing Lines +160-+169: 15-29 34.09%, -4.43U, -10.07% ROI

Opening Lines +170-+179: 10-15 40.00%, +2.28U, 9.12% ROI
Closing Lines +170-+179: 20-16 55.56%, +18.68U, 51.89% ROI

Opening Lines +180-+189: 14-19 42.42%, +6.77U, 20.52% ROI
Closing Lines +180-+189: 11-19 36.67%, +1.77U, 3.90% ROI

Opening Lines +190-+199: 3-3 50.00%, +2.85U, 47.50% ROI
Closing Lines +190-+199: 4-2 66.67%, +5.65U, 94.17% ROI

Opening Lines +200: 1-10 9.09%, -7.90U, -71.82% ROI
Closing Lines +200: 1-8 11.11%, -6.00U, -66.67% ROI

Opening Lines +100-+149: 291-331 46.78%, +16.46U, 2.65% ROI
Closing Lines +100-+149: 261-305 46.11%, +5.44U, 0.96% ROI

Opening Lines +150-+199: 72-100 41.86%, +20.77U, 12.08% ROI
Closing Lines +150-+199: 79-101 43.89%, +30.40U, 16.89% ROI

So far dogs +150-+199 have been paying out well. Dogs +100-+149 are so so, even though opening line dogs +100-+149 are up +16u the ROI isn't the greatest(better than negative money I guess). Dogs +200 are .

[bombCanada]

6/6:
Dodgers +176 9.00u *lose*
Nationals +190 9.00u *lose*
Twins +139 9.00u *win*
Tigers +137 9.00u *win*

122-143 +210u

[bombCanada]

6/7:
Dodgers +166 9.00u
Cubs +155 9.00u
Mets +176 9.00u
Rays +157 9.00u

Best luck!

[rkelly110]

Thanks for your hard work eldian. There are other good dog numbers I see also.

My seek and destroy +160 is bombing (no pun intended) this month so far. 0-4 ML 2-2 RL.

I never turn down a +1.5 opportunity, the ML is just icing on the cake.

[keel44]

Can I ask what percent of your bankroll is 1 unit?

[doesnotcompute]

Can I ask what percent of your bankroll is 1 unit?

1%. With a br of 1k, 1 unit would be $10.

[fenexusa]

I like this picks...good luck

6/7:
Dodgers +166 9.00u
Cubs +155 9.00u
Mets +176 9.00u
Rays +157 9.00u

Best luck!