Top 10 Bullpen ERA Teams as of May 1

[LT Profits]

Remember that my bullpen system kicks in today:

Rank	Team      	ERA
1	Tampa Bay	2.51
2	Arizona    	2.58
3	Philadelphia	2.68
4	Oakland   	2.72
5	Florida     	3.16
6	LA Dodgers	3.21
7	Toronto   	3.23
8	Cincinnati	3.34
9	NY Mets  	3.40
10	Chi. White Sox	3.43

[Bshark]

What system is that LT?

[rake922]

summary of system?

[gizmo2431]

not sure the exact of the system, but he posted an article at the beginning of the baseball season that explained that betting the better bullpen of teams would of made you so many units per season, and how that is just as important of a factor than the starting pitcher. i'm sure it has something to do with that.

[strictlywinners]

summary of system?

Just a guess but I'm pretty sure he means cap based on team with better bullpen. If you want to read into it a little more you could also come up with way of weighting the games based on the bigger ERA differential between the bullpens.

[LT Profits]

In summary, bet any Top 10 bullpen ERA team beginning May 1 as an underdog of any price or as a favorite less than -130 if they are not playing another top 10 bullpen ERA team. If two top 10s face each other, pass the game.

I recapped the last three years' results at the top my feature article on the MLB page today:

Rays, Diamondbacks early bullpen leaders


For my original article on this subject:

Bullpens: The key to winning MLB handicapping

[PLUSLINES]

LT,

Great info from you sir! In the runline system I use that has many filters, I incorporate very similar(but not exact) information into a filter very early in the system. I am in strong agreement with you in the fact that bullpens are a crucial part of successful MLB sports wagering. Within a specific filter which utilizes bullpen ERA within the system I use, I focus more on available bullpens performance over the last 3 games than over a season average.

Pitching...Pitching...Pitching. I dont think it can be stressed enough.

[ChuteBoxe]

Will you be updating the list daily LT? If not, is there a site where we can get this info in this format, so we don't have to keep bothering you for it?

[PLUSLINES]

Will you be updating the list daily LT? If not, is there a site where we can get this info in this format, so we don't have to keep bothering you for it?

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/statistics/2008/bullpenstatistics_mlb_regular.html

[LT Profits]

Yep, covers works ChuteBox

[ChuteBoxe]

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/statistics/2008/bullpenstatistics_mlb_regular.html

Yep, covers works ChuteBox

Excellent. Thanks guys.

[EaglesPhan36]

Super start to the system today. I won with Oakland late. Be fun to follow this.

[chipski]

bullpen #s game check

[QUOTE=LT Profits;717759]In summary, bet any Top 10 bullpen ERA team beginning May 1 as an underdog of any price or as a favorite less than -130 if they are not playing another top 10 bullpen ERA team. If two top 10s face each other, pass the game.

I recapped the last three years' results at the top my feature article on the MLB page today:

Rays, Diamondbacks early bullpen leaders



the #s of the best bullpen eras can be close , not much seperation .

how does the true differential show itself when there can be some bad bullpen showings from 1 or 2 pitchers that send the era #s that are suppoed to be a true reflection , into space ...
alot of ways to ask this question as it is complicated yet simple at the same time ...

example ? angels in tonights game against the A's gave up 5 , 4 , and 1 run . Mosely gave up 5 runs coming out the bullpen , ODay gave up 4 runs out of the bullpen , bootcheck gave up 1 . these 3 guys came out of the bullpen so this CREATES the angels bullpen stats .
10 runs given up by the bullpen in one game . ONE GAME <

so the true (talent , future showing) value of the angels bullpen could be deceptive correct ? the #s .

also what about bullpen guys that BLOW UP THE TEAMS BULLPEN #s that get sent back to the minors or get hurt and are no longer an x facTOR for said teams bullpen ?


any feedback ?

[chipski]

needless to say the angels will not be a team you will be going with any time soon ? numbers got blown up in this one game .... ?

[diogee]

True that Chipski but the Angels pen has sucked all year...I know this because they have imploded on me several times.

[chipski]

the value of a good team in various categories works more by a month by month showing . a team can have the worst team starter era one month and be tied for first in era the next month . bullpen era is the same .
team batting average is the same . every category is the same and shows fluctuation from day to day , week to week , easiest to truly look at month to month .

mets go 14 - 12 in april , they wont go 14 - 12 in may , just like the bullpen era , blown saves , starter wins , team ba , everything that is a stat will change , SOME WITH DRAMATIC RISES AND FALLS .

I'm not knocking the system at all as I see it has value ....

when teams have great months in the win column the stats tend to go up in all categories as well , soooo , the angels for example would not be a play but could INDEED BE THE BEST BULLPEN FOR THE MONTH OF MAY ... this applies to every team , every pen , every stat . I do like the system though , not trying to debate because there really is none . the system should work very well .

[diogee]

Yeah I see where you are coming from and definitely agree.

[PLUSLINES]

LT,

1. Have you ever experimented with using the Runline where you would otherwise use the moneyline on favored teams? Do you think that there could some success here?

2. In your opinion, would the results improve even to a greater result if the ERA bullpen numbers were used a of L-10 games rather than YTD rolling totals?

3 Are the plays that you post in the "Best Bets" section those plays that fit the Bullpen system, or are you posting them separate in another thread?

Thanks,

PL

[LT Profits]

1 - I hate Run Lines in general, and would rather not go back anc look that up. It would literally take days, and is something that should be done during the off season.

2 - I used to think along those same lines, bu utlimately resigned myself to the fact that YTD has produced the best results. Besides, with an average of almost +100 in three years, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

3 - No, as I mentioned somewhere else, my best bets are NOT exclusively BPS plays I do mark the pen plays as such in those threads, but I do not list all of them. That thread is literally for my best plays of the day, and I have not stopped handicapping in more conventional ways.

[ryanXL977]

lt, how long have you done this? how long did it take you to learn this stuff.

[LT Profits]

I've noticed that bullpens are undervalued in the lines for about 10 years, but it wasn't until the last three years or so that I have been able to quantify that info into this system.

[MakeMoney]

LT do you update the top 10 bullpens on this thread? once a week/month?

[diogee]

LT do you update the top 10 bullpens on this thread? once a week/month?

Covers.com then scroll over mlb then clidk on statitics.b

[SexyMit]

How has this system done so far this yr?

[diogee]

How has this system done so far this yr?

So far including the 4 games that have been finalized today it is 9-7 +2.1 units using Betjam closing lines. Ari +112 and STL -116 are still pending for today.

[LT Profits]

diogee is all over the YTD record!

[diogee]

diogee is all over the YTD record!

Glad it matches up.