Dexter's 2011 MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

you ever use fangraphs?.....love that site

That is my primary source for advanced stats...been using it for years and it is vitally important to my model. Thank god its free

[Dexter]

That is my primary source for advanced stats...been using it for years and it is vitally important to my model. Thank god its free

do you have a way of feeding raw data from the site? do you use a database like matlab?

[Love The Action]

do you have a way of feeding raw data from the site? do you use a database like matlab?

I'm still in the stone ages to some extent, and although my methods have become more automated, I still scrape into an excel vba platform. However, my model is merely the starting point for my overall capping process which I use to identify possible value in relation to opening numbers. After I identify possible investment options, then the real work begins.

What are your thoughts on the cards/phillies series?

[Dexter]

I'm still in the stone ages to some extent, and although my methods have become more automated, I still scrape into an excel vba platform. However, my model is merely the starting point for my overall capping process which I use to identify possible value in relation to opening numbers. After I identify possible investment options, then the real work begins.

What are your thoughts on the cards/phillies series?

phillies will get past them easily. wainwrights presence will be missed now. garcia is a home pitcher. not sure how hes lined up but if in citizens bank hes toast

[Dexter]

Futures Bets:

(3u) rays +150 (Series vs Texas)
(3u) brewers -160 (Series vs Arizona)

(1u) rays +500 (AL Pennant)
(1u) brewers +350 (NL Pennant)
(1u) rays +900 (World Series)
(1u) brewers +800 (World Series)

[Dexter]

Friday 9/30:

(1u) yankees -130

[Dexter]

Arz/Milw game 1 is an A3...wait for 7.5

playing phils/cards game 1 under for 1 or 2u...waiting for 7.5

[lakerboy]

Futures Bets:

(3u) rays +150 (Series vs Texas)
(3u) brewers -160 (Series vs Arizona)

(1u) rays +500 (AL Pennant)
(1u) brewers +350 (NL Pennant)
(1u) rays +900 (World Series)
(1u) brewers +800 (World Series)

Friday 9/30:

(1u) yankees -130

you really like the rays dont you?

I like your thinking on MIL.

[No coincidences]

you really like the rays dont you?

I like your thinking on MIL.

Not sure about Brewers' pitching. Greinke still has a lot of headcase in him, YoGa likes to blow up at inopportune times, and the rest of their staff is garbage.

[Dexter]

you really like the rays dont you?

I like your thinking on MIL.

the giants proved last year that you dont need hitting, and the rays actually have a legit stud bat that can carry them.

i just think these are the 2 best value plays. of course if i had a gun to my head i would pick phillies vs yankeess, but thats not how you make money.

Milw has an excellent bullpen and are my choice over TB....

[Dexter]

Not sure about Brewers' pitching. Greinke still has a lot of headcase in him, YoGa likes to blow up at inopportune times, and the rest of their staff is garbage.

thats a pretty lethal 1-2 punch for a short series. greinke is not a milton bradley headcase, he just suffers from anxiety issues. but yeah, curious to see how he performs on a big stage. his stuff is as nasty as anyone in the majors, and he really turned the corner in the 2nd half.

they have the bats and bullpen to compensate for their weak 3/4 imo...

[Dexter]

moore pitching now for the rays tonight. this kid is legit...

how are my lines compared to what online books have?

my buddy at work said he can get +1600 on the rays for WS..

[nervousTic]

i got +1275 @ sbg...

[Bs1194]

I got it at +1250 last night. Right now it's at +1100 on 5dimes.

[Dexter]

damn....should have waited.

[Anthonyg7]

Good luck Dex

[Dexter]

anyone see the umps yet for todays games?

[doin]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/West-Scott-Layne-and-Davis-head-umpire-crews-93935714

Updated Sep 29, 2011 7:18 PM ET
NEW YORK (AP)

Joe West, Dale Scott, Gerry Davis and Jerry Layne will be the umpire crew chiefs for the first round of the playoffs.
Major League Baseball announced the umpire crews on Thursday.
Scott will handle the AL series between Tampa Bay and Texas that begins Friday. He will work with Mark Carlson, Kerwin Danley, Greg Gibson, Brian Gorman and Marvin Hudson.
Davis will work the AL matchup between Detroit and the New York Yankees that starts Friday night. He will be joined by Tony Randazzo, Eric Cooper, Dan Iassogna, Ted Barrett and Bill Welke.
West will call the NL series between Arizona and Milwaukee that opens Saturday. Also on his crew are Ron Kulpa, Alfonso Marquez, Bruce Dreckman, Jeff Kellogg and James Hoye.
Layne will head the crew for the NL matchup between St. Louis and Philadelphia beginning Saturday. He'll work with Chris Guccione, Jerry Meals, Angel Hernandez, Gary Cederstrom and Chad Fairchild.

[Love The Action]

anyone see the umps yet for todays games?

According to redscot's post in my thread, these are the assignments....they are accurate according to what I have seen af well

Looks like Joe West will be behind the plate for that one, that could be a deterrent.

1st game umps look like:

Dale Scott in Texas

Gerry Davis in NYC

Joe West in Milwaukee

Jerry Layne in Philly

*These coming from a source who has been pretty reliable, but not confirmed*

[Dexter]

nice....def gonna hit under phillies hard.

[emeka]

rangers gonna win today for sure

[supr_villn]

TB 2day TEX series TEX world series

[Dexter]

think im gonna go buy a rays jersey....

[Dexter]

Saturday 10/1:

(1u) under yankees 9.5
(1u) under rangers 8.5

[Dexter]

under milw is an A3...waiting for 7.5

[Dexter]

(8u) under brewers 7 (A3)

[Dexter]

good call gibson....why the hell would you pitch to fielder in that spot.

[Dexter]

boo ya!!!!!!!!!

[Dexter]

(4u) under phillies 7

[Dexter]

looks like layne is not the ump...dammit

[Dexter]

under yankees was cancelled - game is starting in 2nd inn...

[Dexter]

what a weird situation....i called my bet in this afternoon, the old man took it and then i get an email from my guy that the bet is void due to the game starting in the 2nd inn.....my other guy is just continuing the action from last nights game (i didnt have yankees with him last night).

so unless i can find a buddy to book a new play for me, im shutout of this game tonight.

[balleryen]

under yankees was cancelled - game is starting in 2nd inn...

how come pinnacle didnt cancel it??....

[Pauulzcappin]

Brewers/Yankees in the series bro.

[Dexter]

Sunday 10/2:

(8u) under phillies 7 (A3)
(1u) brewers -1.5/+140