Dexter's 2011 MLB Plays

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  • Love The Action
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-08-10
    • 10952

    #3256
    Originally posted by Dexter
    you ever use fangraphs?.....love that site
    That is my primary source for advanced stats...been using it for years and it is vitally important to my model. Thank god its free
    Comment
    • Dexter
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 12-24-08
      • 25829

      #3257
      Originally posted by Love The Action
      That is my primary source for advanced stats...been using it for years and it is vitally important to my model. Thank god its free
      do you have a way of feeding raw data from the site? do you use a database like matlab?
      Comment
      • Love The Action
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 11-08-10
        • 10952

        #3258
        Originally posted by Dexter
        do you have a way of feeding raw data from the site? do you use a database like matlab?
        I'm still in the stone ages to some extent, and although my methods have become more automated, I still scrape into an excel vba platform. However, my model is merely the starting point for my overall capping process which I use to identify possible value in relation to opening numbers. After I identify possible investment options, then the real work begins.

        What are your thoughts on the cards/phillies series?
        Comment
        • Dexter
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 12-24-08
          • 25829

          #3259
          Originally posted by Love The Action
          I'm still in the stone ages to some extent, and although my methods have become more automated, I still scrape into an excel vba platform. However, my model is merely the starting point for my overall capping process which I use to identify possible value in relation to opening numbers. After I identify possible investment options, then the real work begins.

          What are your thoughts on the cards/phillies series?
          phillies will get past them easily. wainwrights presence will be missed now. garcia is a home pitcher. not sure how hes lined up but if in citizens bank hes toast
          Comment
          • Dexter
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 12-24-08
            • 25829

            #3260
            Futures Bets:

            (3u) rays +150 (Series vs Texas)
            (3u) brewers -160 (Series vs Arizona)

            (1u) rays +500 (AL Pennant)
            (1u) brewers +350 (NL Pennant)
            (1u) rays +900 (World Series)
            (1u) brewers +800 (World Series)
            Comment
            • Dexter
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 12-24-08
              • 25829

              #3261
              Friday 9/30:

              (1u) yankees -130
              Comment
              • Dexter
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 12-24-08
                • 25829

                #3262
                Arz/Milw game 1 is an A3...wait for 7.5

                playing phils/cards game 1 under for 1 or 2u...waiting for 7.5
                Comment
                • lakerboy
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 04-02-09
                  • 94379

                  #3263
                  Originally posted by Dexter
                  Futures Bets:

                  (3u) rays +150 (Series vs Texas)
                  (3u) brewers -160 (Series vs Arizona)

                  (1u) rays +500 (AL Pennant)
                  (1u) brewers +350 (NL Pennant)
                  (1u) rays +900 (World Series)
                  (1u) brewers +800 (World Series)
                  Originally posted by Dexter
                  Friday 9/30:

                  (1u) yankees -130

                  you really like the rays dont you?

                  I like your thinking on MIL.
                  Comment
                  • No coincidences
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 01-18-10
                    • 76300

                    #3264
                    Originally posted by lakerboy
                    you really like the rays dont you?

                    I like your thinking on MIL.
                    Not sure about Brewers' pitching. Greinke still has a lot of headcase in him, YoGa likes to blow up at inopportune times, and the rest of their staff is garbage.
                    Comment
                    • Dexter
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 12-24-08
                      • 25829

                      #3265
                      Originally posted by lakerboy
                      you really like the rays dont you?

                      I like your thinking on MIL.
                      the giants proved last year that you dont need hitting, and the rays actually have a legit stud bat that can carry them.

                      i just think these are the 2 best value plays. of course if i had a gun to my head i would pick phillies vs yankeess, but thats not how you make money.

                      Milw has an excellent bullpen and are my choice over TB....
                      Comment
                      • Dexter
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 12-24-08
                        • 25829

                        #3266
                        Originally posted by No coincidences
                        Not sure about Brewers' pitching. Greinke still has a lot of headcase in him, YoGa likes to blow up at inopportune times, and the rest of their staff is garbage.
                        thats a pretty lethal 1-2 punch for a short series. greinke is not a milton bradley headcase, he just suffers from anxiety issues. but yeah, curious to see how he performs on a big stage. his stuff is as nasty as anyone in the majors, and he really turned the corner in the 2nd half.

                        they have the bats and bullpen to compensate for their weak 3/4 imo...
                        Comment
                        • Dexter
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 12-24-08
                          • 25829

                          #3267
                          moore pitching now for the rays tonight. this kid is legit...

                          how are my lines compared to what online books have?

                          my buddy at work said he can get +1600 on the rays for WS..
                          Comment
                          • nervousTic
                            SBR Rookie
                            • 07-25-08
                            • 14

                            #3268
                            i got +1275 @ sbg...
                            Comment
                            • Bs1194
                              SBR MVP
                              • 11-10-10
                              • 1025

                              #3269
                              I got it at +1250 last night. Right now it's at +1100 on 5dimes.
                              Comment
                              • Dexter
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 12-24-08
                                • 25829

                                #3270
                                damn....should have waited.
                                Comment
                                • Anthonyg7
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 11-27-10
                                  • 1281

                                  #3271
                                  Good luck Dex
                                  Comment
                                  • Dexter
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 12-24-08
                                    • 25829

                                    #3272
                                    anyone see the umps yet for todays games?
                                    Comment
                                    • doin
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 02-27-09
                                      • 457

                                      #3273
                                      Get MLB news, scores, stats, standings & more for your favorite teams and players -- plus watch highlights and live games! All on FoxSports.com.




                                      Updated Sep 29, 2011 7:18 PM ET
                                      NEW YORK (AP)

                                      Joe West, Dale Scott, Gerry Davis and Jerry Layne will be the umpire crew chiefs for the first round of the playoffs.
                                      Major League Baseball announced the umpire crews on Thursday.
                                      Scott will handle the AL series between Tampa Bay and Texas that begins Friday. He will work with Mark Carlson, Kerwin Danley, Greg Gibson, Brian Gorman and Marvin Hudson.
                                      Davis will work the AL matchup between Detroit and the New York Yankees that starts Friday night. He will be joined by Tony Randazzo, Eric Cooper, Dan Iassogna, Ted Barrett and Bill Welke.
                                      West will call the NL series between Arizona and Milwaukee that opens Saturday. Also on his crew are Ron Kulpa, Alfonso Marquez, Bruce Dreckman, Jeff Kellogg and James Hoye.
                                      Layne will head the crew for the NL matchup between St. Louis and Philadelphia beginning Saturday. He'll work with Chris Guccione, Jerry Meals, Angel Hernandez, Gary Cederstrom and Chad Fairchild.
                                      Comment
                                      • Love The Action
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 11-08-10
                                        • 10952

                                        #3274
                                        Originally posted by Dexter
                                        anyone see the umps yet for todays games?
                                        According to redscot's post in my thread, these are the assignments....they are accurate according to what I have seen af well

                                        Originally posted by Redscot
                                        Looks like Joe West will be behind the plate for that one, that could be a deterrent.

                                        1st game umps look like:

                                        Dale Scott in Texas

                                        Gerry Davis in NYC

                                        Joe West in Milwaukee

                                        Jerry Layne in Philly

                                        *These coming from a source who has been pretty reliable, but not confirmed*
                                        Comment
                                        • Dexter
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 12-24-08
                                          • 25829

                                          #3275
                                          nice....def gonna hit under phillies hard.
                                          Comment
                                          • emeka
                                            Restricted User
                                            • 01-12-10
                                            • 454

                                            #3276
                                            rangers gonna win today for sure
                                            Comment
                                            • supr_villn
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 02-16-11
                                              • 990

                                              #3277
                                              TB 2day TEX series TEX world series
                                              Comment
                                              • Dexter
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 12-24-08
                                                • 25829

                                                #3278
                                                think im gonna go buy a rays jersey....
                                                Comment
                                                • Dexter
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 12-24-08
                                                  • 25829

                                                  #3279
                                                  Saturday 10/1:

                                                  (1u) under yankees 9.5
                                                  (1u) under rangers 8.5
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Dexter
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 12-24-08
                                                    • 25829

                                                    #3280
                                                    under milw is an A3...waiting for 7.5
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Dexter
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 12-24-08
                                                      • 25829

                                                      #3281
                                                      (8u) under brewers 7 (A3)
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Dexter
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 12-24-08
                                                        • 25829

                                                        #3282
                                                        good call gibson....why the hell would you pitch to fielder in that spot.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Dexter
                                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                          • 12-24-08
                                                          • 25829

                                                          #3283
                                                          boo ya!!!!!!!!!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Dexter
                                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                            • 12-24-08
                                                            • 25829

                                                            #3284
                                                            (4u) under phillies 7
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Dexter
                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                              • 12-24-08
                                                              • 25829

                                                              #3285
                                                              looks like layne is not the ump...dammit
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Dexter
                                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                • 12-24-08
                                                                • 25829

                                                                #3286
                                                                under yankees was cancelled - game is starting in 2nd inn...
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Dexter
                                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                  • 12-24-08
                                                                  • 25829

                                                                  #3287
                                                                  what a weird situation....i called my bet in this afternoon, the old man took it and then i get an email from my guy that the bet is void due to the game starting in the 2nd inn.....my other guy is just continuing the action from last nights game (i didnt have yankees with him last night).

                                                                  so unless i can find a buddy to book a new play for me, im shutout of this game tonight.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • balleryen
                                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                                    • 08-10-11
                                                                    • 19

                                                                    #3288
                                                                    Originally posted by Dexter
                                                                    under yankees was cancelled - game is starting in 2nd inn...
                                                                    how come pinnacle didnt cancel it??....
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Pauulzcappin
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 04-23-10
                                                                      • 20295

                                                                      #3289
                                                                      Brewers/Yankees in the series bro.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Dexter
                                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                        • 12-24-08
                                                                        • 25829

                                                                        #3290
                                                                        Sunday 10/2:

                                                                        (8u) under phillies 7 (A3)
                                                                        (1u) brewers -1.5/+140
                                                                        Comment
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