Dexter's 2011 MLB Plays

Anthonyg7 · 07-11-11, 11:46 AM

You are a beast.. You are on a sick run.

sacks13 · 07-11-11, 12:10 PM

Hey Dex,

Congrats on the great first half. A data/system question for you, if you don't mind.

Your A1-A3 plays are all based on WHIP numbers, and in the case of A1, WHIP discrepancies. Do you have, or know of, any database that you could use to tweak your system based on results? I understand you might not want to based on just a half of baseball, but do you at least have the ability to see whether changing your WHIP limits might lead to better results?

Thanks!

bea$tmode · 07-11-11, 12:26 PM

Originally posted by Anthonyg7

You are a beast.. You are on a sick run.

Thanks man. Yeah I've been doing pretty well since I started my thread. I post a lot of plays everyday though, which I should prob cut down some.

Dexter · 07-11-11, 12:36 PM

Originally posted by sacks13

Hey Dex,

Congrats on the great first half. A data/system question for you, if you don't mind.

Your A1-A3 plays are all based on WHIP numbers, and in the case of A1, WHIP discrepancies. Do you have, or know of, any database that you could use to tweak your system based on results? I understand you might not want to based on just a half of baseball, but do you at least have the ability to see whether changing your WHIP limits might lead to better results?

Thanks!

im not a quant/tech guy....but im sure you can use some software like matlab to really backtest it.

Access Denied

http://www.mathworks.com/products/matlab/

this is not the first year im doing A1-A3.....i have tweaked the whip #'s over the years, added the bullpen filter and the 3 starts in the last 30 days.

Dexter · 07-11-11, 12:39 PM

Originally posted by bea$tmode

I love Kemp tonight too Dex...keep an eye out, you may be able to get some better odds to lay a little more if you are looking. I got +780 this morning on Kemp at 5dimes...

GL man

damn, i figured that was such an overlay that it would fall. shows how much i know about props...

Dexter · 07-11-11, 12:49 PM

Originally posted by bea$tmode

Thanks man. Yeah I've been doing pretty well since I started my thread. I post a lot of plays everyday though, which I should prob cut down some.

i noticed your thread and you do seem to have a ton of units in play each day...how come you never make a base 1 unit play?

lets get that kemp prop....

bea$tmode · 07-11-11, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

i noticed your thread and you do seem to have a ton of units in play each day...how come you never make a base 1 unit play?

lets get that kemp prop....

The damn Kemp line just went up to +850 at 5dimes so I missed that jump too..oh well, Go Kemp!

About my thread, I have made a few 1 unit plays since I started it. They haven't done very well. My approach is more of a rating system, I guess. As far as the units go, I would never expect someone to lay $100 units on my plays and have that much at risk everyday. I like to have the risk spread over a lot of games which is why I generally have a lot of plays at a big range of units. I personally am playing very small units right now. I am a recent college grad, haven't started work yet, and have a load of student loans so I really don't have the ability to play big units right now.

To be honest, this is my first thread used to track my plays and this is the first time that I have seriously tracked my plays at all in the few years I have been betting. I am still trying to work out what works best for my capping style and stuff. In hindsight, I think I would have rather tracked the thread at lower unit ranges but since I started it with a 1-10 range, I figured I might as well keep it that way to not alter the record much. I kinda based it off of GG's style I guess because I had seen his thread a couple times before I started mine. I probably should have looked around more to see what others were doing haha.

In threads for future seasons, I will likely lower the unit ratings somehow. I just gotta figure it all out.

Dexter · 07-11-11, 01:25 PM

Originally posted by bea$tmode

The damn Kemp line just went up to +850 at 5dimes so I missed that jump too..oh well, Go Kemp!

About my thread, I have made a few 1 unit plays since I started it. They haven't done very well. My approach is more of a rating system, I guess. As far as the units go, I would never expect someone to lay $100 units on my plays and have that much at risk everyday. I like to have the risk spread over a lot of games which is why I generally have a lot of plays at a big range of units. I personally am playing very small units right now. I am a recent college grad, haven't started work yet, and have a load of student loans so I really don't have the ability to play big units right now.

To be honest, this is my first thread used to track my plays and this is the first time that I have seriously tracked my plays at all in the few years I have been betting. I am still trying to work out what works best for my capping style and stuff. In hindsight, I think I would have rather tracked the thread at lower unit ranges but since I started it with a 1-10 range, I figured I might as well keep it that way to not alter the record much. I kinda based it off of GG's style I guess because I had seen his thread a couple times before I started mine. I probably should have looked around more to see what others were doing haha.

In threads for future seasons, I will likely lower the unit ratings somehow. I just gotta figure it all out.

keeping your plays tracked in a thread is a great way to keep yourself disciplined. i still get out of control at times, but thats usually in college sports...lol

your young - dont get yourself in trouble betting bigger then what you can handle. play small and have fun. if you make a few bucks, thats icing on the cake.

bea$tmode · 07-11-11, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

keeping your plays tracked in a thread is a great way to keep yourself disciplined. i still get out of control at times, but thats usually in college sports...lol

your young - dont get yourself in trouble betting bigger then what you can handle. play small and have fun. if you make a few bucks, thats icing on the cake.

Thanks for the advice, I appreciate it. I think I am going to try and maintain threads at least for baseball and hockey which are my two best sports. I have enjoyed it so far and it definitely has helped me notice mistakes I make and stuff which is really helpful.

I won't bet bigger than I can handle...I started betting basically to give me another reason to constantly watch sports haha. I'm gonna take it easy and not get out of my comfort level.

My future threads will likely use different unit grades and stuff, but I'll finish this one out how I started.

GL tonight dex and GL in the second half. Let's hope Kemp gets loose tonight.

Dexter · 07-11-11, 02:46 PM

if anyone sees the umpires assigned to the all star game, please post asap. im pretty sure i will take the under. if matt kemp wins tonight, i will throw that house money on the under....

raqnarok · 07-11-11, 03:14 PM

I think it's Dale Scott according to this http://tinyurl.com/6guka9e

atofsu32111 · 07-11-11, 05:43 PM

Mybologna, want to meet up in the city? I'll be there tomm to collect from my bookie ha I could text you?

Mybologne · 07-11-11, 06:38 PM

Originally posted by atofsu32111

Mybologna, want to meet up in the city? I'll be there tomm to collect from my bookie ha I could text you?

No way!!! traffic sucks on the weekdays

Dexter · 07-11-11, 07:48 PM

Originally posted by raqnarok

I think it's Dale Scott according to this http://tinyurl.com/6guka9e

Thanks.

Dale Scott is 14-6 (70%) to the over this year. He was 19-15 (56%) to the over last year. think i may go with the over once this hits 8. balls fly out of arizona.

atofsu32111 · 07-11-11, 08:17 PM

I take the train in lol. I thought you work in the city?

Pick'nParlays · 07-11-11, 08:17 PM

"just get one matt....just get one"

Dexter · 07-11-11, 09:30 PM

Originally posted by Pick'nParlays

"just get one matt....just get one"

is he bombing (in a bad way)? im not even watching...lol

Pick'nParlays · 07-11-11, 09:36 PM

yeah he didnt have it today Dex, oh well.

bea$tmode · 07-11-11, 10:18 PM

Wow dex, Kemp screwed us. You're lucky you weren't watching when he was on.

Mybologne · 07-11-11, 10:36 PM

Originally posted by atofsu32111

I take the train in lol. I thought you work in the city?

dex works in the city I'm in the bx

Anthonyg7 · 07-11-11, 11:58 PM

Originally posted by bea$tmode

The damn Kemp line just went up to +850 at 5dimes so I missed that jump too..oh well, Go Kemp!

About my thread, I have made a few 1 unit plays since I started it. They haven't done very well. My approach is more of a rating system, I guess. As far as the units go, I would never expect someone to lay $100 units on my plays and have that much at risk everyday. I like to have the risk spread over a lot of games which is why I generally have a lot of plays at a big range of units. I personally am playing very small units right now. I am a recent college grad, haven't started work yet, and have a load of student loans so I really don't have the ability to play big units right now.

To be honest, this is my first thread used to track my plays and this is the first time that I have seriously tracked my plays at all in the few years I have been betting. I am still trying to work out what works best for my capping style and stuff. In hindsight, I think I would have rather tracked the thread at lower unit ranges but since I started it with a 1-10 range, I figured I might as well keep it that way to not alter the record much. I kinda based it off of GG's style I guess because I had seen his thread a couple times before I started mine. I probably should have looked around more to see what others were doing haha.

In threads for future seasons, I will likely lower the unit ratings somehow. I just gotta figure it all out.

Congrats on your recent college grad.. i just finished school myself 3 weeks ago and luckily found a job right after... Student loans are a pain in the ass.. I have quite a lot to pay back. Everyone has their own style of playing, if you check out my thread.. my average play is between 1-2 units and playing only games i really like.. it has worked out for me thus far, but i definately feel like getting a bit more aggressive after the ASB. Good luck man.

allabout the $$$ · 07-12-11, 08:36 AM

Originally posted by Anthonyg7

Congrats on your recent college grad.. i just finished school myself 3 weeks ago and luckily found a job right after... Student loans are a pain in the ass.. I have quite a lot to pay back. Everyone has their own style of playing, if you check out my thread.. my average play is between 1-2 units and playing only games i really like.. it has worked out for me thus far, but i definately feel like getting a bit more aggressive after the ASB. Good luck man.

congrats to all you guys who have just graduated college wish i did it was just a party for me

anthony why would you want to change what you have been doing if it is obviously working and turning you a profit? i have been gambling about 20 years and imo if its not broke dont fix it normally once you start playing more games and opening up your playing style is when people start to lose because they change everything that got them to that point if you were losing obviously you should do something different but since you have something profitable wait till the end of the season to change things so you can back test and see if you have another winning formula good luck to you in the 2nd half

zebra58 · 07-12-11, 11:48 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

Thanks.

Dale Scott is 14-6 (70%) to the over this year. He was 19-15 (56%) to the over last year. think i may go with the over once this hits 8. balls fly out of arizona.

dexter when you have time could i get your take on these props for the all-star game

how many hits amer? hits national?
how many strikeouts amer? strikeouts nat?

you can p.m them if you like i just want to compare w/what i have, thanks

CHAZ · 07-12-11, 12:09 PM

"

bea$tmode · 07-12-11, 01:39 PM

Originally posted by Anthonyg7

Congrats on your recent college grad.. i just finished school myself 3 weeks ago and luckily found a job right after... Student loans are a pain in the ass.. I have quite a lot to pay back. Everyone has their own style of playing, if you check out my thread.. my average play is between 1-2 units and playing only games i really like.. it has worked out for me thus far, but i definately feel like getting a bit more aggressive after the ASB. Good luck man.

Congrats to you too. I've got a ton of loans too. I did find a job right after, but I'm not starting until late August. Right now, I am just studying for the CPA exam ALL DAY EVERYDAY. Literally the only highlight of my day is betting and watching baseball. That's why I started the thread haha, but I'm glad I did and will continue to track my plays in threads. I am gonna try and knock out some of the plays I am unsure on after the break...I'll definitely check out your thread. GL

Dexter · 07-12-11, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by zebra58

dexter when you have time could i get your take on these props for the all-star game

how many hits amer? hits national?
how many strikeouts amer? strikeouts nat?

you can p.m them if you like i just want to compare w/what i have, thanks

those are so random - i really have no idea...sorry

Dexter · 07-12-11, 04:24 PM

"

Dexter · 07-12-11, 04:25 PM

(1u) over AL/NL 8

WIZARDOFBEANTOWN · 07-12-11, 07:21 PM

good luck dexter

Dexter · 07-12-11, 08:13 PM

dale scott aint gonna matter tonight......1-0 final coming up

fly fisher · 07-13-11, 06:58 PM

so with the All-Star break, do you think we will tend to seem more unders becasue of the layoff from swinging the bats or does the MLB generally perform as normal. I would think a rest for pitchers is more of an advantage for them, and a rest for hitters is more of a disadvantage. I would also think that fielding would be about the same, might see a few more errors but nothing significant. Any thoughts for tommorrow's unders?

Dexter · 07-13-11, 07:21 PM

Thursday 7/14:

(2u) under giants 6.5
(1u) indians -110

Anthonyg7 · 07-13-11, 07:25 PM

back to the grind.. gl tomorrow Dex and the entire 2nd half of the season. I'll be looking at tonight's games once i get home from work.

Dexter · 07-13-11, 07:25 PM

Originally posted by fly fisher

so with the All-Star break, do you think we will tend to seem more unders becasue of the layoff from swinging the bats or does the MLB generally perform as normal. I would think a rest for pitchers is more of an advantage for them, and a rest for hitters is more of a disadvantage. I would also think that fielding would be about the same, might see a few more errors but nothing significant. Any thoughts for tommorrow's unders?

usually when the weather heats up, many hitters come alive and balls fly out in the warm weather. plus i think hitters have more of an advantage in the heat since pitchers have to work hard for long periods of time on the mound. thats just my opinion, and i certainly wont look to take more overs because of it. i would expect there to be more A2's though....

tomorrow i played under sf and also leaned under col/milw. the other games look like overs to me.

fly fisher · 07-13-11, 11:00 PM

thanks for the info Dex. Good to see you on Colo under and Cleve, I took them earlier, now feel good about them seeing that you are on them. Hadn't taken SF, but will jump on the train and tail you on that one. Still on the road but had some time to catch up today. Good luck tomorrow.