Dexter's 2011 MLB Plays

[bhunter]

lol....not yet!

Well something that might change your luck is that i started fading your A4's - and my record over the last 3 weeks is awful, losing around $9,000 and wiping out 75% of my profit for the year.

In fact it started yesterday where i faded the Welke A4, but luckily i took Under 9 so got a push whereas you got the win right at the end.

Am tailing your A1, 2 & 3's though so might be a while before those rebound!

PS only reason i'm fading the A4's is that i think linemakers are wise to the umpire factor with the lines being adjusted fractionally accordingly, and i think over a long stretch they will tend to even out close to 50%

[Dexter]

Monday 5/2: (8u) angels -110 (A1)

(4u) under giants 7.5 (A4 - Darling)

(2u) over braves 7.5_culbreth

[Dexter]

Well something that might change your luck is that i started fading your A4's - and my record over the last 3 weeks is awful, losing around $9,000 and wiping out 75% of my profit for the year.

In fact it started yesterday where i faded the Welke A4, but luckily i took Under 9 so got a push whereas you got the win right at the end.

Am tailing your A1, 2 & 3's though so might be a while before those rebound!

PS only reason i'm fading the A4's is that i think linemakers are wise to the umpire factor with the lines being adjusted fractionally accordingly, and i think over a long stretch they will tend to even out close to 50%

fair enough - just dont come here doing an endzone dance when you win and i lose...haha

but you do realize the 7 umps i selected hit that high % for 2 years in a row? i couldnt pull the data (didnt look hard enough) for 2008 but perhaps these guys were trending the same way then.

i have not seen anything fishy with the A4 lines....i actually make my own projected total each day and i havent noticed anything way off on the A4 games....there were plenty of umps who were great over guys in 2009 then they were under guys in 2010 (and vice versa)...i think looking at 2 years of data will give me the edge....

[Dexter]

thats a messed up start

Clay Buchholz pitching:Maicer Izturis :Strike looking, Foul, Ball, Izturis singled to right, Izturis out at second.Bobby Abreu :Strike looking, Strike looking, Ball, Abreu singled to center.Howard Kendrick :Ball, Pickoff attempt, Kendrick singled to left, Abreu to second.Torii Hunter :Strike looking, Ball, Ball, Ball, Hunter grounded into double play third to first, Abreu out at third.

[Anthonyg7]

Gl today Dex.. I'm on Cards ML.

[Dexter]

Gl today Dex.. I'm on Cards ML.

lohse has been filthy....RL or ML?

[Anthonyg7]

lohse has been filthy....RL or ML?

Took the ML. Volstad has a 2.14 Road Start Whip.

[Dexter]

Tuesday 5/3:

(5u) under cards 8 (A4 - Layne)

[Anthonyg7]

Took the ML. Volstad has a 2.14 Road Start Whip.

G Sanchez homered to left center, C Volstad, C Coghlan and H Ramirez scored. Ouch..

[Anthonyg7]

G Sanchez homered to left center, C Volstad, C Coghlan and H Ramirez scored. Ouch..

Cards come out and respond.. entertaining game.

L Berkman homered to right, C Rasmus and M Holliday scored.

[Dexter]

so much for that 3rd ranked bullpen...

redsox simply own the angels....

[Anthonyg7]

so much for that 3rd ranked bullpen... redsox simply own the angels....

that was brutal.. wow..

[Dexter]

a2 is on over twins today...waiting as it looks like 8.5 could happen...

[Dexter]

a2 is on over twins today...waiting as it looks like 8.5 could happen...

Wind blowing OUT TO RIGHT 7-12

*good sign for morneau....he just hit his first homer the other day and its about time he starts reverting to his mean.

[bhunter]

fair enough - just dont come here doing an endzone dance when you win and i lose...haha

but you do realize the 7 umps i selected hit that high % for 2 years in a row? i couldnt pull the data (didnt look hard enough) for 2008 but perhaps these guys were trending the same way then.

i have not seen anything fishy with the A4 lines....i actually make my own projected total each day and i havent noticed anything way off on the A4 games....there were plenty of umps who were great over guys in 2009 then they were under guys in 2010 (and vice versa)...i think looking at 2 years of data will give me the edge....

Told you your luck had changed! 0-1-1 on the fade when following you i could've been 2-0!

I hear what you're saying about the long term trends. I may end up switching sides and tailing you... but on the other hand you might want to bribe me not to given the way my luck is at the moment!

[Dexter]

Told you your luck had changed! 0-1-1 on the fade when following you i could've been 2-0!

I hear what you're saying about the long term trends. I may end up switching sides and tailing you... but on the other hand you might want to bribe me not to given the way my luck is at the moment!

you had 8 on the braves total?

[bhunter]

When was the Braves total? Might've missed it.

I've played under 9 on detroit/cleveland and over 7.5 on sf/wash

Today florida/st louis over 8

Is your A2 play confirmed, but just waiting for a line change? I'm in Europe and have to go to bed soon!

[d33m]

Playing A2 tonight, MIN Over right?

[Dexter]

When was the Braves total? Might've missed it.

I've played under 9 on detroit/cleveland and over 7.5 on sf/wash

Today florida/st louis over 8

Is your A2 play confirmed, but just waiting for a line change? I'm in Europe and have to go to bed soon!

oh, you were talking about det/cle from sunday.

yes, all the data lined up. just waiting for an 8.5....

[Dexter]

Tuesday 5/3:

(5u) under cards 8 (A4 - Layne)

(3.5u) under reds 8.5 (A4 - Miller)

[bhunter]

(3.5u) under reds 8.5 (A4 - Miller)

I took the over 8... so another winner for you!

[Dexter]

Tuesday 5/3: (5u) under cards 8 (A4 - Layne)

(3.5u) under reds 8.5 (A4 - Miller)

(5u) over royals 8.5 (A4 - Reynolds)

[Dexter]

I took the over 8... so another winner for you!

did you buy .5 run? if so, whats ur price?

[bhunter]

did you buy .5 run? if so, whats ur price?

I got the 8 at pinnacle for -113. Think the 8.5 was +105 there and +109 at matchbook.

You'd laugh if you'd seen how many bets i've lost recently that have been in OT (hockey) or extra innings in baseball. Hence taking the 8!

[bhunter]

And i got -118 & -120 for the under 9 in the balti/kansas game at unibet and centrebet which was way better than pinnacle (-128)

[Dexter]

(8u) over whitesox 9 (A2)

[Dexter]

Wednesday 5/4:

(5u) under reds 9 (A4 - Hoye)

[Dexter]

Tue 5/3:

(4u) under a's 7.5 (A4 - Joyce)

[Dexter]

nothing like having the over when a pitcher has a no hitter.....gonna get buried nicely tonight.

[d33m]

who would have known that 2 shitty pitchers would play like rock stars...oh well

[Dexter]

i love how gullien bats dunn(160avg) 3rd...brilliant.

definitely fading liriano next game off all these pitches....hes not used to this.

[Dexter]

Wed 5/4:

(1u) under rays 8
(1u) under a's 7

[d33m]

I think fading pitchers coming off a stellar performance is a great idea. Rarely do you see them pitch as well the next game. Let's keep an eye out for Liriano's next game.

[Dexter]

can someone please go to MLB.com and post the umpires for the day games? thx.

[hogfan]

Dex, tell me how and I can look them up for ya.