Fade Livan Hernandez for the rest of the year

[ROFLcopter]

His 2nd half slide has begun. I'm surprised it didn't start earlier. He started off great for the Mets last year and by this time he was out of the rotation. Check out his last two starts:

8/23 vs CHC at home : 4.1 innings, 10 hits, 4 BB, 7 ER

8/28 vs STL at home: 6.1 innings, 8 hits, 5 ER

Pirates are the play tonight and the early line movement clearly says so. Livan will get smoked again. The old man is out of gas

[thebestthereis]

when summer is over he goes on a canoli binge and it shows

[ROFLcopter]

3.5x on the Pirates for me

[bigsmitty]

Ouch-canoli binge...Thought maybe he was playing hurt. Cheers and good luck.

[GTeater]

I'm on the Pirates as well, 3x FF, 2x ML

[ROFLcopter]

Thanks and good luck

[Power Play]

Both pitchers are gascans at times (but capable of surprisingly good performances). Pitching probably favors Pirates just because Livan's wearing down. Plus Pirates are better at home than the Nats are on the road.

[ROFLcopter]

i thought about the over but the line set at 8.5 is VERY fishy. I'm thinking the UNDER is the play

[Chuck Sims]

Somebody started a thread saying the Nationals -115 was his biggest bet of the year tonight. He got the worst of it as the Nationals are +102 at Matchbook.

[ROFLcopter]

Yup i just read/commented in there. His user name is also Nats Fan

[ROFLcopter]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-handicapping/649407-roflbrothel-special-line-nats-110-a.html

I'll take another 10 points here

[ROFLcopter]

[thebestthereis]

when you turn on comedy central, every so often they flash on the tv that the washington nationals are favored on the road. they should just keep that on for 30 minutes, it is its own show and the funniest one on that network.

[ROFLcopter]

You're right, I forgot to even mention that. That's hysterical

[phillybadboy]

nice call top three sbr rolfcopter paco cappinpicks

[ROFLcopter]

Not over yet though, they're still the Pirates after all

[thebestthereis]

no it's not over, just the fact they opened as road favorites was funny as shit. i don't even care about this game, that right there had me lmao.

[GTeater]

Straight Wager 09/03/10 11:34 ET bet 100.00 to win 90.90 Result: Pending First Full 5 Innings Line and Total - Listed Pitchers Nationals (Hernandez)
Pirates (Duke) 09/03/10(19:05 ET)
Pirates (Duke) -110

[GTeater]

Thanks

[ROFLcopter]

Congrats on the nice hit

and thanks for the points, very much appreciated. First time i've gotten points for one of these threads

[ROFLcopter]

Another 2 hits in this inning. Livan's ERA will end above 4 before the season is done

[GTeater]

Lets finish this



13) BET ID=322071129 Straight Wager 09/03/10 11:32 ET
bet 150.00 to win 142.90 Result: Pending Nationals(Washington) Hernandez
Pirates(Pittsburgh) Duke 09/03/10(19:10 ET)
Pirates(Pittsburgh) -105

[ROFLcopter]

Good thing I didn't take the under here
Should of taken FF but didn't want TOO much riding on the Pirates

[ROFLcopter]

Another 2 hits in this inning. Livan's ERA will end above 4 before the season is done

7-1 Pirates. Livan's ERA from 3.49 to 3.76. Maybe it'll reach 4 before this game is over?

edit: And he's finally done. Let's get that 8th run in.

Final line: 4.1 IP, 8 hits, 2 walks, 7 ER (runner on 2nd pending)

[ROFLcopter]

8 ER, ERA at 3.81. This guy is good for 1/2 the year, remember that next year as well

[GTeater]

Looks like the Bucs are paying for my Nocturnal Fest tickets !

Excellent analysis/pick Copter. You we're 110% correct.

[ROFLcopter]

Congrats on the big win

[ROFLcopter]

Wednesday, 9/8

Livan takes on a Mets offense that has shown some signs of life. The Mets opened up at -107 but have dropped down to +100 at Pinny, and this might be the best time to grab them. This initial movement means nothing to me, as I will wait till late tomorrow morning and a little before the game to examine the line. This is the rubber game of the series, and we all know how unlikely it is for the Mets to win on the road, let alone win a road series, however, there are some things to consider.

1. The Mets were -140 to win this series
2. The Mets +1.5 RL is juiced at -206 right now.

Some early signs that the Mets are the play. Will take a look at the line tomorrow morning but I will likely put in a play tonight and look to add more tomorrow. That might be in the form of more on the ML, Mets FF, or Mets TT over. Will wait until all the lines are released

[Pauulzcappin]

Mets ML and alt RL for me, I just the game was on Citi Field, Carlos Beltrán can actually hit something past the infield there

[ROFLcopter]

Like that Alt RL also

[ROFLcopter]

Mets +100 (4x) - Very likely to add more. Lets see how the lines go tomorrow.

Can anyone tell me the line for the Mets Alt. RL? Not up on 5Dimes yet

[Pauulzcappin]

Mets +100 (4x) - Very likely to add more. Lets see how the lines go tomorrow. Can anyone tell me the line for the Mets Alt. RL? Not up on 5Dimes yet

Not up on Pinny yet but probly be around 180

[ROFLcopter]

Thanks Pauulz.

Mets +101 (1x) so thats 5x total.

It just jumped from +101 to -102 on 5Dimes. If anyone is interested in taking the Mets, I think this will be the best number available.

[Pauulzcappin]

Thanks Pauulz. Mets +101 (1x) so thats 5x total. It just jumped from +101 to -102 on 5Dimes. If anyone is interested in taking the Mets, I think this will be the best number available.

I'm gonna look at some stuff, but I think I'll play them

[PayDay]

Livan actually has good history vs Mets, and Wright/Reyes could miss tomorrow game. Knuckle ball Dickey has trouble vs the nats before.

I am gona wait to confirm if Wright/Reyes status before fading Livan.