**'s Wednesday Bases...A very TOUGH Card....and my BLOG about it....
Yesterday: 2-0 +2.22
Been looking at this card for a while and only came up with one play. One of the toughest cards that I have seen in a while. Very few big favs there. I normally find value on the other side, but cant find much with Perkins @ Danks. The other big fav is SD with Correia vs Pitts and McDonald. McDonald pitched very well last time, and has tons of upside. Would like to say theres value with this dog, but really cant. Then we have Wainwright at a very cheap price. But hes in Cinci and hes not as good on the road as he is at home. Arroyo has been good too. Have to stay away. Hanson vs Wandy is a great match up. Wandy has been very good since the break. Houston is at home. Too tough to play. Billingsley @ Oswalt is another great pitching match up. Once again...no obvious value with either side. Col and Francis @ Niese and the Mets? Perhaps some value there with the Mets. But I cant trust Niese. He was great for a while, then tailed off. If he was the dog I would probably play it. But not now as the fav. D-Backs @ Brewers...How can anyone put me on this game? Its a coin flip. I like SF vs Gorzo and the Cubs...but I cant justify Zito being a -165 fav. Chicago has some solid right handed bats as well. Staying away. Garza @ Verlander...another solid match up. Verly is a slight fav. Dont trust the Tigers. Some value on Garza. Not enough to play right now though. Greinke @ Weaver is another great match up. The Angels are the better team. And its really not such an expensive price with Weaver at -155. But you never know when Greinke puts it all together. Plus the Royals are an underrated hitting team. Too tough to play. Oak with Braden @ Seattle with French. Braden more reliable. But Oakland looked so bad vs Felix, they might be in a 3 day hitting funk. Too tough to play with Oak as the mini fav. The red-hot O's @ Cleveland, with Cle as a -145 favorite? Is Cliff Lee back in Cle? No. But Tomlin has been good, and Baltimore is throwing out a gascan. Cant play the fav or dog here. Lean to the dog because they are very hot. Might become a play later. Buccholz vs Marcum is another great match up. Oddsmakers have it as a coin flip. So do I. You just cant touch this. Unless of course you like flipping coins. NYY and Vasquez vs Cliff Lee. I am really surprised Lee is only a -160 favorite here. The Yanks are in a bit of a funk and are getting too much respect. I dont think Teixeira will be playing again. Yanks just have so much trouble vs lefties. They did nothing vs CJ Wilson. And they have never touched Cliff Lee. I think there is tons of value here with Cliff Lee only at -160. Problem is I am a die hard Yankees fan, and I dont want to root for the opponent in such a huge game. If I can bet with my head and not my heart, this might become a play.
And finally for the one play I did find value on, and was able to bring myself to call it an official play is Florida +105 @ Olsen and the Nats. Washington is coming off such a downer with their savior coming up very small. The place will likely be empty tomorrow. Volstad is a solid arm for a Florida team that just better than the Nats. Getting them as a small doggie for the day after a Strasburg loss is nice.
Been looking at this card for a while and only came up with one play. One of the toughest cards that I have seen in a while. Very few big favs there. I normally find value on the other side, but cant find much with Perkins @ Danks. The other big fav is SD with Correia vs Pitts and McDonald. McDonald pitched very well last time, and has tons of upside. Would like to say theres value with this dog, but really cant. Then we have Wainwright at a very cheap price. But hes in Cinci and hes not as good on the road as he is at home. Arroyo has been good too. Have to stay away. Hanson vs Wandy is a great match up. Wandy has been very good since the break. Houston is at home. Too tough to play. Billingsley @ Oswalt is another great pitching match up. Once again...no obvious value with either side. Col and Francis @ Niese and the Mets? Perhaps some value there with the Mets. But I cant trust Niese. He was great for a while, then tailed off. If he was the dog I would probably play it. But not now as the fav. D-Backs @ Brewers...How can anyone put me on this game? Its a coin flip. I like SF vs Gorzo and the Cubs...but I cant justify Zito being a -165 fav. Chicago has some solid right handed bats as well. Staying away. Garza @ Verlander...another solid match up. Verly is a slight fav. Dont trust the Tigers. Some value on Garza. Not enough to play right now though. Greinke @ Weaver is another great match up. The Angels are the better team. And its really not such an expensive price with Weaver at -155. But you never know when Greinke puts it all together. Plus the Royals are an underrated hitting team. Too tough to play. Oak with Braden @ Seattle with French. Braden more reliable. But Oakland looked so bad vs Felix, they might be in a 3 day hitting funk. Too tough to play with Oak as the mini fav. The red-hot O's @ Cleveland, with Cle as a -145 favorite? Is Cliff Lee back in Cle? No. But Tomlin has been good, and Baltimore is throwing out a gascan. Cant play the fav or dog here. Lean to the dog because they are very hot. Might become a play later. Buccholz vs Marcum is another great match up. Oddsmakers have it as a coin flip. So do I. You just cant touch this. Unless of course you like flipping coins. NYY and Vasquez vs Cliff Lee. I am really surprised Lee is only a -160 favorite here. The Yanks are in a bit of a funk and are getting too much respect. I dont think Teixeira will be playing again. Yanks just have so much trouble vs lefties. They did nothing vs CJ Wilson. And they have never touched Cliff Lee. I think there is tons of value here with Cliff Lee only at -160. Problem is I am a die hard Yankees fan, and I dont want to root for the opponent in such a huge game. If I can bet with my head and not my heart, this might become a play.
And finally for the one play I did find value on, and was able to bring myself to call it an official play is Florida +105 @ Olsen and the Nats. Washington is coming off such a downer with their savior coming up very small. The place will likely be empty tomorrow. Volstad is a solid arm for a Florida team that just better than the Nats. Getting them as a small doggie for the day after a Strasburg loss is nice.
