MLB Betting Preview: Nats Visit Atlanta Braves
The Major League Baseball schedule returns to normal this week and opens with a matchup of Aces in Atlanta when Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals meet Tim Hudson and the Braves.
So, have you seen this Steven Strasburg kid yet?
You may have noticed baseball fans and bettors paying a lot more attention to the Washington Nationals these days. They’ve been tremendous fade candidates the past couple of seasons, losing over 100 games and well over 20 betting units in both 2008 and 2009.
The Nationals are still scuffling along in last place in the National League East at 33-43, but that’s enough of an improvement to stem their 2010 losses thus far at 1.59 units.
Strasburg is the reason we’re paying attention. He’s been nothing short of brilliant – we’ll get to that in a moment – but there’s one problem: Washington couldn’t hit water if it fell out of a boat.
The Nationals are ranked No. 21 in the majors with a .725 OPS and No. 22 overall with 310 runs scored. That’s just under 4.1 runs per game, and in Washington’s four games with Strasburg on the mound, that support has dropped to 3.75 runs. The Nats have lost his last two starts by a combined score of 3-1. Strasburg chalkeaters are already out 2.14 units despite two wins in his first two starts.
Low scoring is not the kind of problem you want to have going into a series against the Atlanta Braves. Their rebuilding program is a success; Atlanta has reclaimed top spot in the NL East at 44-32 (8.93 units) with the fourth-best pitching in the majors at 4.11 xFIP. The Braves are also ranked No. 11 in hitting with a .745 OPS, and they have the best batting eye in the league with 11.3 percent of their plate appearances converted into walks.
Atlanta’s success against the betting odds is further assured by one of the best bullpens in baseball – second in the majors with a 3.62 xFIP, even while closer Billy Wagner (2.69 xFIP) pitches on a sore left ankle. The Nationals bullpen is healthy and performing well if you go by ERA (3.49, No. 10), although not so well if you use xFIP (4.48, No. 20). However, we can blame some of that on Miguel Batista (4.12 ERA, 5.82 xFIP) and his unsustainable .227 BABIP. Batista has already pitched 39.1 innings, but as a mop-up man, he isn’t being used in high leverage situations.
Here are the projected starters for this three-game set. Monday’s opener will be shown on ESPN2 to give us some more Strasburg.
Steven Strasburg vs. Tim Hudson
Monday, June 28, 7:10 p.m. ET
Strasburg is everything the scouts said he would be. His MLB numbers after four starts are even more eye-popping than his minor league and college numbers: 1.35 xFIP, 14.57 strikeouts per nine innings, and 1.78 walks per nine innings. By the way, all of those walks (five) were in his win over the Cleveland Indians.
Hudson (2.54 ERA, 4.37 xFIP) has gotten some luck this year with a .232 BABIP, but the Braves are only 8-7 in his starts for 0.54 units of profit.
TBA vs. Derek Lowe
Tuesday, June 29, 7:10 p.m. ET
The Nationals had yet to announce at press time who would start Tuesday’s contest. This is John Lannan’s spot in the rotation, but he was demoted to AA-Harrisburg last Monday to help him regain his confidence after three awful outings.
Craig Stammen (4.18 xFIP) and Matt Chico (two earned runs in five innings) have been mentioned as candidates. Lowe has a 4.30 xFIP and a profit of 3.56 units on a team record of 10-6.
J.D. Martin vs. Kris Medlen
Wednesday, June 30, 7:10 p.m. ET
Martin (4.02 xFIP) is in his second year in the majors after making 15 starts for the Nats last year. The 6-foot-4 righty was once a prospect of some note with Cleveland before injuries derailed his career. He may be back on track now after Tommy John surgery in 2005, but Washington has amazingly lost all five of his starts for a deficit of 5.42 units.
Medlen (3.83 xFIP) is also getting a shot at the big time while Jair Jurrjens recovers from a hamstring injury. The Braves have been making the most of it with an 8-1 record and 7.64 units in earnings.
The Major League Baseball schedule returns to normal this week and opens with a matchup of Aces in Atlanta when Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals meet Tim Hudson and the Braves.
So, have you seen this Steven Strasburg kid yet?
You may have noticed baseball fans and bettors paying a lot more attention to the Washington Nationals these days. They’ve been tremendous fade candidates the past couple of seasons, losing over 100 games and well over 20 betting units in both 2008 and 2009.
The Nationals are still scuffling along in last place in the National League East at 33-43, but that’s enough of an improvement to stem their 2010 losses thus far at 1.59 units.
Strasburg is the reason we’re paying attention. He’s been nothing short of brilliant – we’ll get to that in a moment – but there’s one problem: Washington couldn’t hit water if it fell out of a boat.
The Nationals are ranked No. 21 in the majors with a .725 OPS and No. 22 overall with 310 runs scored. That’s just under 4.1 runs per game, and in Washington’s four games with Strasburg on the mound, that support has dropped to 3.75 runs. The Nats have lost his last two starts by a combined score of 3-1. Strasburg chalkeaters are already out 2.14 units despite two wins in his first two starts.
Low scoring is not the kind of problem you want to have going into a series against the Atlanta Braves. Their rebuilding program is a success; Atlanta has reclaimed top spot in the NL East at 44-32 (8.93 units) with the fourth-best pitching in the majors at 4.11 xFIP. The Braves are also ranked No. 11 in hitting with a .745 OPS, and they have the best batting eye in the league with 11.3 percent of their plate appearances converted into walks.
Atlanta’s success against the betting odds is further assured by one of the best bullpens in baseball – second in the majors with a 3.62 xFIP, even while closer Billy Wagner (2.69 xFIP) pitches on a sore left ankle. The Nationals bullpen is healthy and performing well if you go by ERA (3.49, No. 10), although not so well if you use xFIP (4.48, No. 20). However, we can blame some of that on Miguel Batista (4.12 ERA, 5.82 xFIP) and his unsustainable .227 BABIP. Batista has already pitched 39.1 innings, but as a mop-up man, he isn’t being used in high leverage situations.
Here are the projected starters for this three-game set. Monday’s opener will be shown on ESPN2 to give us some more Strasburg.
Steven Strasburg vs. Tim Hudson
Monday, June 28, 7:10 p.m. ET
Strasburg is everything the scouts said he would be. His MLB numbers after four starts are even more eye-popping than his minor league and college numbers: 1.35 xFIP, 14.57 strikeouts per nine innings, and 1.78 walks per nine innings. By the way, all of those walks (five) were in his win over the Cleveland Indians.
Hudson (2.54 ERA, 4.37 xFIP) has gotten some luck this year with a .232 BABIP, but the Braves are only 8-7 in his starts for 0.54 units of profit.
TBA vs. Derek Lowe
Tuesday, June 29, 7:10 p.m. ET
The Nationals had yet to announce at press time who would start Tuesday’s contest. This is John Lannan’s spot in the rotation, but he was demoted to AA-Harrisburg last Monday to help him regain his confidence after three awful outings.
Craig Stammen (4.18 xFIP) and Matt Chico (two earned runs in five innings) have been mentioned as candidates. Lowe has a 4.30 xFIP and a profit of 3.56 units on a team record of 10-6.
J.D. Martin vs. Kris Medlen
Wednesday, June 30, 7:10 p.m. ET
Martin (4.02 xFIP) is in his second year in the majors after making 15 starts for the Nats last year. The 6-foot-4 righty was once a prospect of some note with Cleveland before injuries derailed his career. He may be back on track now after Tommy John surgery in 2005, but Washington has amazingly lost all five of his starts for a deficit of 5.42 units.
Medlen (3.83 xFIP) is also getting a shot at the big time while Jair Jurrjens recovers from a hamstring injury. The Braves have been making the most of it with an 8-1 record and 7.64 units in earnings.
