Ok, now that i've settled into the grind of pouring over the infinite number of stats and trends that accompany the capping of bases and met with some success and more failure, I've decided to return to my 1st year experiment and work on a chase system.
The system will take into account a short list of simple matchup stats for upcoming series, looking most closely at bullpens and hitting while keeping an eye on the starting pitching matchups for the duration of the series.
All of my plays will be on a unit basis so any who decide to tail or fade can do so on their own terms adjusting real dollar bet sizes accordingly. All series will begin with the goal to win one unit, and unit $$$ value will increase at a time to be determined later, (after a streak of wins obviously,) but seeing as I plan to have each unit equal 5% of my bankroll i'm looking to increase unit size by 2.5% once the bankroll has increased by 50%. These are just rough #'s of course and I will change bet size at a time where it feels comfortable, most likely erring on the side of BR safety.
I'm looking to make this slow and conservative so let's see what we can do. As well these picks will not cross series, I will not continue chasing a team just because I don't want the blemish on the record or don't want to take the $ loss. Again all plays will stay within their respective series.
So as not to clutter up my sig which has precious little room anyways, my previous records from the failed sides and parlays thread i had were
2010 MLB 67-69-1(-44u) 49.2%
Parlays 0-11(-15u) 0%
Not good i know, but i got kind of crazy with unit sizing towards the end so that had an impact on the amount down i was. No biggie tho as I've said before, this is merely a year of learning for me so I'm still settling in to where my strengths in capping are (if i have any) and looking to plug the leaks.
On with the plays guys
Tuesday 6/15
Yankees -125 -- 1.25u / 1u
Rockies +137 -- .73u / 1u
Rangers +140 -- .71u / 1u
Odd choices I know, but these are the only 3 series that made all the cuts so I'm feeling confident with them.
The system will take into account a short list of simple matchup stats for upcoming series, looking most closely at bullpens and hitting while keeping an eye on the starting pitching matchups for the duration of the series.
All of my plays will be on a unit basis so any who decide to tail or fade can do so on their own terms adjusting real dollar bet sizes accordingly. All series will begin with the goal to win one unit, and unit $$$ value will increase at a time to be determined later, (after a streak of wins obviously,) but seeing as I plan to have each unit equal 5% of my bankroll i'm looking to increase unit size by 2.5% once the bankroll has increased by 50%. These are just rough #'s of course and I will change bet size at a time where it feels comfortable, most likely erring on the side of BR safety.
I'm looking to make this slow and conservative so let's see what we can do. As well these picks will not cross series, I will not continue chasing a team just because I don't want the blemish on the record or don't want to take the $ loss. Again all plays will stay within their respective series.
So as not to clutter up my sig which has precious little room anyways, my previous records from the failed sides and parlays thread i had were
2010 MLB 67-69-1(-44u) 49.2%
Parlays 0-11(-15u) 0%
Not good i know, but i got kind of crazy with unit sizing towards the end so that had an impact on the amount down i was. No biggie tho as I've said before, this is merely a year of learning for me so I'm still settling in to where my strengths in capping are (if i have any) and looking to plug the leaks.
On with the plays guys
Tuesday 6/15
Yankees -125 -- 1.25u / 1u
Rockies +137 -- .73u / 1u
Rangers +140 -- .71u / 1u
Odd choices I know, but these are the only 3 series that made all the cuts so I'm feeling confident with them.
.....let's close this one out tomorrow
....only problem is I just now got internet back (thanks verizion for sucking so bad) therefore I was unable to make the "B" bet on the Giants today.....Dunno really how to move going forward because of this...the only way i can see to reconcile would be to carry over one game into their next series...
TEX & MIN made the cut with me also. GL 
