Next pitcher up in the system may be the way to go. GL on this system, will be watching!
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Heavy juice on your picks? Bet to win $5. Or bet $20. $13.40 on ML and $6.60 on -RL 67% and 33%.Comment -
Yeah the reason I'm just betting $5 is because it's still an experiment. I started on June 1st so I'm gonna experiment the whole month of June and then step it up. The thing about the run line is that it can really screw u. I don't want to have to double up on my next bets just because they only won by 1 instead of 2. The way some bullpens are going it seems you can really get screwed.Comment -
There are 2 plays today.
1. Jinemez -205. $5 for $2.44
2. Hudson +114. $5 for $5.70Comment -
We split today's plays with Jimenez winning and Hudson losing in 11 innings. Braves offense let us down. They had a man on 3rd in the 10th and 11th but couldn't score. In fact in the 10th inning they had a lead off double and then had 3 straight strikeouts.Comment -
Thread stats:
Hudson 1-1 -$0.93 (L1)
Carpenter 1-0 +$2.38 (W1)
Hughes 1-0 +$1.61 (W1)
Marcum 0-1 -$5.00 (L1)
Johnson 1-0 +2.08 (W1)
Wainwright 1-0 +$2.27 (W1)
Pettite 0-1 -$5.00 (L1)
Jimenez 1-0 +$2.44 (W1)
Overall 6-3 -$0.15Comment -
Any thoughts on shaking up the system? I was thinking about instead of just playing every pitcher as his own system, just play all 8 pitchers as 1 system. So when someone loses, instead of waiting until his next start to double up, we simple do it with the very next guy. This would be a great time to start that as well. The next guy up is on Tuesday with Hughes against Baltimore. Later that night we have Carpenter against the Dodgers. Also, we are basically even as this point. I think we could probably make a little more money and quicker going that way. Any thoughts?Comment -
Well Herd, only time will tell, we'll just have to wait and see. More action this way if it willl work and I hope it does. I think ur on to something. Like u said, it's an exp. GLComment -
Alright I want to change it around. Instead of the pitchers being their own individual system I will use all of them in one system. Also, I am removing Romero for the time being and replacing him with Buchholz of Boston. This is also going to be an odd week. Tomorrow we start out with Hughes at 7pm and then we have Carpenter at 10pm. We might be able to play both if Hughes and the Yanks can get up nicely on the Orioles. Wednesday will be another crazy day. Johnson is going against Halladay and I'm not touching that. They faced each other just over a week ago and Halladay threw a damn perfect game. We are supposed to play all games but I'm not touching that. Marcum is out like I said so we won't be playing him (he's up against Tampa Bay and Price just like last week when the Blue Jays blew the game in the 9th). Buchholz is playing at 7pm so he will be the play. Wainwright plays at 10pm so maybe we play 2 games that night as well. After Wednesday things will hopefully get a little less congested.Comment -
looks good
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OK the thread is basically starting over since we are at even money. Just going to erase the stats for each pitcher basically. All pitchers will now be combined into just 1 system instead of them being individual systems. Here are the pitchers we will be using.
Hudson
Carpenter
Hughes
Johnson
Wainwright
Pettite
Jimenez
Buchholz
Guys can be added or removed as the season progresses. 2 of our guys are going tonight. Hughes is at 7:05pm and then Carpenter at 10:10pm. Since Hughes is up first we play him. Took him at -205. $5 for $2.44. If the game is over in time or if the game is clearly in the hands of 1 team right before the Cardinals game then we will play Carpenter accordingly. GL!Comment -
maybe we need to pick some aces that are good to fade in heavy juice scenarios and qualify for the fade in some kind of filter we outline....
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It's Yanks 12-3 in the top of the 7th so the Yanks should have it in the bag. Play is now $5 on Carpenter. I just got it at -124. $5 for $4.03.Comment -
1-1 today. Won the Yankees bet but lost the Cardinals bet. Cardinals didn't score a single damn run. Carpenter goes 7 shutout innings and the bullpen promptly allows 1 in the 8th. 1-1 and -$2.56.Comment -
I'm going to try this only I'm going to use 1st 5 innings! That way the pens won't come into play!Comment -
you will be broke by the end of the seasonComment -
I have Buchholz tonight at -160. $24 for $15Comment -
Had a bad feeling about this Red Sox game. Buchholz gave up 1 in the first and threw 30 fukkin pitches. Meanwhile Masterson is blasting the Red Sox.Comment -
Buchholz pitched terrible and the Red Sox didn't come to play. They got their asses handed to them. Might have to take a day or two off cause I gotta go out of town. The next few matchups aren't great anyway. Might play Pettite tomorrow at home against Houston. Houston is playing better right now and Brett Myers is solid so it's not a great matchup even though I would expect Yankees to win. Also on Friday Jimenez pitches. Normally I would love to go with Jimenez but they are playing the Blue Jays with Romero on the mound. Romero has been solid this year and the Rockies offense is suspect right now. Hudson also pitches Friday but it's at Minnesota against Liriano and I don't like that at all. Carpenter pitches Sunday at Arizona against Edwin Jackson so that might be the next play. Down $29 right now. Picked a really shitty time to change the system. The matchups are bad bad bad right now.Comment -
OK I want to resurrect this thread. I didn't have a ton of time to keep like I thought would happen. Now that the all-star break is over I think it's a good time to restart fresh. I really wish that I would have been able to have have kept it going as it did great. I just went through the numbers of what happened from June 1 until the all-star break. Here are the results:
Buchholz 4-1 +$25.00 LAST BET WON 6/26
Carpenter 4-4 $5.50 LAST BET LOST 7/08
Hudson 5-4 +$45.00 LAST BET WON 7/10
Hughes 6-1 +$35.00 LAST BET WON 7/09
Jimenez 6-1 +$35.00 LAST BET WON 7/08
Johnson 4-3 +$35.00 LAST BET WON 7/07
Pettite 5-2 +$35.00 LAST BET WON 7/08
Wainwright 7-2 +$45.00 LAST BET WON 7/09
Overall 41-16 +$260.50
That's a pretty damn good record and a nice profit considering that I was just trying to make $5 per game. Now I am going to tweak this just a bit. Firstly, I want to add Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia. Here is what the record would have been with those 2 added: and CC Sabathia
Here is what it would have looked like with them added:
Lee 6-2 +$15.00 LAST BET LOST 7/10
Sabathia 8-0 +$40.00 Last BET WON 7/11
So If both of those guys were added:
Overall 55-18 +$315.50
That looks real good to me. Sabathia is 8-0 since June 1st. He just has to be added. I love Cliff Lee but I didn't want to play him with that Mariners offense. Now he has joined the Rangers who have scored the 3rd most runs in MLB (behind the Red Sox and Yankees). Secondly, I do have concerns with 2 of our guys. Carpenter hasn't looked right. He lost his last 2 starts. He should have lost his last 3. However, the Diamondbacks brought in Heilman and the Diamondbacks allowed 3 in the 9th including the winning run which was on an error. Another questionable person is Josh Johnson. My problem is obviously not with Johnson, but the Marlins offensive production. Johnson has the lowest ERA in MLB. However, it seems like every time Johnson pitches the Marlins offense scores like 2 runs. In their last 10 games they have scored more than 4 runs only 1 time. Therefore, Johnson stays but I am going to keep a nervous eye on him. Carpenter starts tonight. Like I said though, he has been struggling. I will give him 2 games. If he loses tonight and his next start I will take him out of the system and just take the losses.
Here is the new list:
Buchholz
Carpenter
Hudson
Hughes
Jimenez
Johnson
Lee
Pettite
Sabathia
Wainwright
Like I said i am keeping an eye on Johsnon and Carpenter for sure. As for adding guys, i am thinking about Lester, Price, and Verlander. Lester is 11-3 with a 2.78 ERA. On top of that the Red Sox have scored the most runs in MLB. The Red Sox have had some injuries so when those guys come back they should be even better. David Price is 12-4 with a 2.42 ERA. Don't really like the Rays' offense but they are still in the hunt and seem to just keep on churning out some wins. Justin Verlander is 11-5 with a 3.82 ERA. I am a Tigers fan and I am a constant pessimist when it comes to them. However, they are just .5 games behind in the central. Their offense has been great and they been winning a lot lately. I will keep an eye on those guys.Comment -
Today's play is Carpenter. Got him at -121. Risking $6.05 to win $5.Comment -
Interesting concept. GL with this I'll definitely keep an eye on this thread.Comment -
Carpenter gets the win. Nice. Went 8 innings and allowed 1 run.
Thread record:
1-0 +$5.00Comment -
winner winner. CC today. gonna be 2-0 on the new thread.Comment -
Forgot to mention one of the tweaks. I went back to playing the system as the when I first started. Each pitcher will be his own system. I just feel better going that way.Comment -
CC Sabathia is the only play today. Just got him at -171. $8.55 to win $5.Comment -
GL to you shields is garbage.
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The Yanks got it done in extra innings. Saturday is filled with plays. Kind of scary right now because there is probably going to be some juice involved tomorrow. Wainwright take the hill at home against the Dodgers and Kuroda. Hudson is going at home against Narveson and the Brewers. Josh Johnson is at home against the Nationals and Hernandez. Cliff Lee is on the road against the Red Sox and Lackey. So that is 4 plays for tomorrow. Right now Wainwright is around -162 to -170. Johnson is like -240 and Hudson is about -215. Lee is around -135. Hopefully Hudson and Johnson come down before it's time to bet.
Thread Record:
2-0 +$10
Carpenter 1-0
Sabathia 1-0Comment -
Wainwright is up first today. The line had gotten down to the -140s but then started heading up again. I got it at -158. $7.90 to win $5.
The Braves line has come down a ton. Hopefully it stays that way. Wish the Marlins line would do the same.Comment -
hey MU, i love this approach you're taking, i'm definitely tailing! best of luck, let's cash my friend.Comment -
You need to start playing to win ten. or twenty. If you had been all along, you'd be rich.Comment -
i hope the systems works out for you, i never been a fan of chasing bets, but it looks like you have a strong criteria in place, so who knows...best of luckComment
