Playing the highest ML dogs and RL favs across the board!

[netinfo]

Hi,

Does anyone in here play the highest positive ML dogs and RL favs across the board on a consistent basis?

For example, if you have this:

.....................RL......................ML
Team A..........-1.5 +110............-140
Team B..........+1.5 -130............+120

Then you play Team B ML, because +120 is the highest positive number in that game.


But if you have this:

.....................RL......................ML
Team A..........-1.5 +160............-130
Team B..........+1.5 -190............+120

Then you play Team A RL, because +160 is the highest positive number in that game.


And so, does anyone do this on a consistent basis, without spending time handicapping the games, just picking the highest positive number in each of the 14 or 15 games on each day, laying one unit on each game? If so, what have been your results? The nice thing about this is that even if you pull less than 50% in winnings, you can still make 1 or 2 units profit per day.

For example, let's say you go 7 - 8 for the day (47%), and each unit is $100, and lets say the average + number is +140:

7 x 140 = $980 revenue
8 x 100 = $800 losses
$980-$800 = $180 profit (almost 2 units! )

What do you think?

netinfo

[iceminers26]

give it a shot, I think you have a good chance of having a positive return since you are value betting...start with something small and see how the system works before playing higher units.

[netinfo]

I would need to try this for at least a month to see how valuable it is, but anyways, I tried it yesterday, and also today, and these were my results:

For yesterday, by playing 1 unit on each of the 15 games (my unit = $5), I generated $10 in profit (2 units), going 7 - 8 (47%).

05/22 01:24 AM ML Lost $5.00 - Pittsburgh Pirates +130 for Game
05/22 01:24 AM RL Won $8.00 - Chicago White Sox -1½ +160 for Game
05/22 01:24 AM RL Lost $5.00 - St Louis Cardinals -1½ +140 for Game
05/22 01:24 AM RL Lost $5.00 - Washington Nationals -1½ +145 for Game
05/22 01:24 AM RL Lost $5.00 - San Francisco Giants -1½ +150 for Game
05/22 01:24 AM RL Won $6.50 - Colorado Rockies -1½ +130 for Game
05/22 01:24 AM RL Lost $5.00 - Minnesota Twins -1½ +150 for Game
05/22 01:24 AM ML Lost $5.00 - Houston Astros +130 for Game
05/22 01:24 AM RL Won $7.50 - Cincinnati Reds -1½ +150 for Game
05/22 01:24 AM ML Won $6.75 - Chicago Cubs +135 for Game
05/22 01:24 AM RL Won $7.00 - Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +140 for Game
05/22 01:24 AM RL Lost $5.00 - Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +135 for Game
05/22 01:24 AM ML Won $7.00 - New York Mets +140 for Game
05/22 01:24 AM RL Won $7.25 - Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +145 for Game
05/22 01:24 AM RL Lost $5.00 - San Diego Padres -1½ +145 for Game

$50 - $40 = $10.00 profit.


For today, by playing 1 unit on each of the 14 games (my unit = $5), I generated $10.75 in profit so far (2.15 units), going 6 - 7 (46%), with one game still pending.

05/23 01:43 AM ML Won $6.00 - Pittsburgh Pirates +120 for Game
05/23 01:43 AM RL Lost $5.00 - Cincinnati Reds -1½ +125 for Game
05/23 01:43 AM RL Lost $5.00 - Washington Nationals -1½ +175 for Game
05/23 01:43 AM ML Won $10.00 - Boston Red Sox +200 for Game
05/23 01:43 AM ML Lost $5.00 - Houston Astros +160 for Game
05/23 01:43 AM ML Won $7.00 - Chicago Cubs +140 for Game
05/23 01:43 AM ML Lost $5.00 - Chicago White Sox +115 for Game
05/23 01:43 AM RL Lost $5.00 - Kansas City Royals -1½ +135 for Game
05/23 01:43 AM ML Lost $5.00 - Los Angeles Angels +145 for Game
05/23 01:43 AM RL Won $9.00 - Oakland Athletics -1½ +180 for Game
05/23 01:43 AM RL Lost $5.00 - Seattle Mariners -1½ +145 for Game
05/23 01:43 AM ML Won $7.25 - Detroit Tigers +145 for Game
05/23 01:43 AM RL Won $6.50 - Toronto Blue Jays -1½ +130 for Game
05/23 01:43 AM ML Pending - New York Mets +125 for Game

$45.75 - $35 = $10.75 profit so far. Even if I lose the Mets game, and go 6 - 8 overall for the day, I'll still pull a profit of $5.75.


I hope these kinds of results will continue. I'll try and play this for a while, and see what happens.

netinfo

[jhonnydanks]

interesting strategy. look forward to seeing some more results. thanks for posting

[netinfo]

Mets won the game, so this strategy went 7 - 7 today, for a profit of $17 (3.4 units).

netinfo

[netinfo]

For tomorrow (May 24th):

ML - Pittsburgh Pirates +155
ML - Cleveland Indians +135
RL - Tampa Bay Rays -1½ +155
RL - Los Angeles Angels -1½ +160

netinfo

[LLXC]

Someone should have a database on here to back track this for you?

[pat venditto]

Interesting idea. Might have to try it out.

[DrStale]

Interesting. BOL.

[SKiLLsSoLoN]

I was think taking Fav on ML and taking dog on RL!

[netinfo]

Someone should have a database on here to back track this for you?

If anyone here does have the database to backtrack this strategy, I'd appreciate their input.

netinfo

[iceminers26]

For tomorrow (May 24th): ML - Pittsburgh Pirates +155 ML - Cleveland Indians +135 RL - Tampa Bay Rays -1½ +155 RL - Los Angeles Angels -1½ +160 netinfo

I got the Bucs ML and Rays RL on my card today as well, not touching those other 2, but good luck with the 4 plays.

[netinfo]

I was think taking Fav on ML and taking dog on RL!

You should get a lot of wins that way, but with the juice involved, I'm not sure if it will sustain a good amount of profit. Just like this strategy, it would need to be tested as well, to determine its value.

netinfo

[netinfo]

Bol iceminers26 on the Bucks and Rays!

netinfo

[SportsAddict]

I was think taking Fav on ML and taking dog on RL!

Skills Im feeling this concept. Im also looking into possibilities of cutting off the play when its over or under a certain plus money number. Im going to be watching out for them and Ill let you know how it works out!

[SportsAddict]

Oh and Netinfo, your a pioneer man. Keep it up Im also interested in seeing how this works. Logic is telling me that this will be a losing money concept but my heart is telling me that it isnt. So ill be keeping an eye out for the facts now!

[brumbies]

It could just be a fluke. But its definitely worth tracking.

[netinfo]

SportsAddict,

I also feel the logic/heart conflict here, and I'm hoping that a test of the strategy would show my logic to be wrong and my heart to be right!

netinfo

[netinfo]

It could just be a fluke. But its definitely worth tracking.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing, that maybe today and yesterday were just a fluke, or exceptions to the rule, but I don't know for certain unless I track this for a while.

netinfo

[rdo37]

Does anyone have a database to test this? Looks very promising!

[SportsAddict]

Straight Up Trends (Won Loss)
Category Record Percent
Away Teams 300-364 45.18%
Home Teams 364-300 54.82%
Favorites 381-279 57.73%
Dogs 279-381 42.27%
Away Favorites 119-101 54.09%
Away Dogs 178-262 40.45%
Home Favorites 262-178 59.55%
Home Dogs 101-119 45.91%
Against The Spread Trends (ATS)
Category Record Percent
Away Teams 351-313 52.86%
Home Teams 313-351 47.14%
Favorites 272-392 40.96%
Dogs 392-272 59.04%
Away Favorites 99-140 41.42%
Away Dogs 252-173 59.29%
Home Favorites 173-252 40.71%
Home Dogs 140-99 58.58%
Over vs. Under Trends
Category Overs Percent Unders Percent
Extra Inning Games 28 45.90% 33 54.10%
Non-Extra Inning Games 274 48.58% 290 51.42%
All Games 302 48.32% 323 51.68%

[SportsAddict]

(ATS) Dogs 392-272 59.04%
(ATS) Home Dogs 140-99 58.58%
ML Home Favorites 262-178 59.55%
SEEMS TO BE SOME GOOD NUMBERS HERE

[dolphan34]

Would we want the opening or closing line?

[hhsilver]

Would we want the opening or closing line?

neither is practical (or possible to actually use) .... if you want to try this you have keep it simple , which is part of the appeal for those who like action and don't want to spend a lot of time cappin. I say that if you want to try this , just use the best lines available when it's a convenient time for you to play.

[TGHMak]

Good luck tomorrow

[PDW]

I am going to try it today

[himeshforex]

nice . I like this stuff

[SolidDala]

"

[netinfo]

ML - Pittsburgh Pirates +155 loss
ML - Cleveland Indians +135 loss
RL - Tampa Bay Rays -1½ +155 loss
RL - Los Angeles Angels -1½ +160 loss

0 - 4 today (-4 units)

Looking at SportsAddict's data in post #21, these are the two data in respect to the strategy of this thread:

ML Dogs: 279 - 381 = 42.27%
RL Favs: 272 - 392 = 40.96%
When combined together, we get: 551 - 773 = 41.62%

Assuming an average of +140, and a unit of $100
551 x $140 = $77,140 Revenue
773 x $100 = $77,300 Loss
$77,140 - $77,300 = -160 loss

So, it appears that this strategy is not the money-maker that I thought it might turn out to be, unfortunately. brumbies seems to be correct that the past couple of days were just a fluke.

Sorry folks, I think this experiment is a failure.

There is therefore no longer any need to continue tracking it, since we know now that it will not be a good money-maker for us.

netinfo

[dolphan34]

Nice try. I'm always looking for a good angle, but they rarely pan out.

[SportsAddict]

Nice try though Net!. Im currently testing out SU home favorites and ATS Away dogs! Ill see how that one goes

[Jak]

To bad the system showed a decent amount of promise

[stikymess]

net,

At least you are getting out of the box and trying something else/different. So props to you on that.

[jasont]

def worth a try

[netinfo]

Thanks everyone, it was definitely worth a try.

The only way this would work is if there was something we could do, like introducing a filter or two, that would cut off more of the losses than the winners, and thereby improve the percentages to at least 47%, while maintaining at least a +140 average.

If this were to happen, 47% winners @ +140 average, this strategy will be golden. I don't know though what kind of filters it would take to accomplish this.

netinfo