MLB Betting: Phillies Battle Red Sox
The first run of interleague play on the MLB schedule takes place this weekend. The battered Boston Red Sox will be in Philadelphia to battle Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay and the rest of the Phils staff.
Are you looking for a good deal on a slightly used baseball team? The Boston Red Sox are available at 12-1 to win the 2010 World Series, down from 13-2 when the betting odds opened. It’s a bargain price for a talented squad.
But the reason the Red Sox are a bargain is that they’ve started the season at 22-20 (-4.54 units), and half their roster is on the disabled list.
Or perhaps you’d prefer the reigning National League champions. The Philadelphia Phillies are relatively healthy and happy at 25-15 (2.98 units), tops on the senior circuit and behind only the 30-11 Tampa Bay Rays for first overall.
The Phillies have yet to lose a series this month. They’re fourth in the majors with a .798 OPS; Boston is second at .801, but that’s in the American League with the designated hitter, and there will be no DHing allowed when the Red Sox visit the Phillies this weekend for a three-game interleague series at Citizens Bank Park.
The Red Sox might be able to swing the bat on par with the Phillies, but when it comes to pitching, the comparison isn’t so flattering. Philadelphia is once again fourth in the majors with a 4.05 xFIP, while Boston is way down the table at No. 22 with a 4.48 xFIP, down from 4.31 last year and 4.28 in 2008. Here are the projected starters for this series; note that the forecast calls for a 40 percent chance of showers moving in for Saturday night.
Game 1: John Lackey vs. Cole Hamels (-135, 9)
Friday - 7:05 p.m. (ET)
Lackey (4.85 xFIP) simply hasn’t panned out for the Red Sox since leaving the Los Angeles Angels and singing that five-year, $82-million contract in the offseason. He may be over the hill at age 31; his strikeout rate is a career-low 5.58 per nine innings, and Lackey is walking a career-high 3.78 batters per nine innings. The Sox have won four of his eight starts for a deficit of 1.93 units.
Hamels (3.72 xFIP) had some yips in the playoffs last year, but his production level during the 2010 regular season is as high as always. The Phillies are 6-2 in his eight starts and 2.79 units in the black; each of the last three games went UNDER the posted total. Philadelphia is a -135 favorite in this matchup with a total of nine runs.
Game 2: Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. Kyle Kendrick
Saturday - 7:10 p.m. (ET)
These are frustrating times for Matsuzaka (4.60 xFIP, 7.89 ERA) and his supporters. He pitched a brilliant game on May 11 against the Toronto Blue Jays, allowing one run over seven innings and striking out nine, then got shelled six days later by the New York Yankees. Matsuzaka and Red Sox catcher Victor Martinez appear to be having some trouble getting along these days; Martinez wants more fastballs, and his pitcher is shaking him off.
Kendrick (4.82 lifetime xFIP) is hanging onto that No. 5 spot in the Philly rotation by coming up with the occasional gem, like Monday’s 12-2 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates (+173). That’s Kendrick’s third quality start of the season. The Phillies are 4-4 (-0.69 units) in his eight appearances thus far.
Game 3: Tim Wakefield vs. Roy Halladay
Sunday - 1:35 p.m. (ET)
The Red Sox have put Josh Beckett on the 15-day DL with a strained back, so veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (5.05 xFIP) gets another shot at the rotation. Three of Wakefield’s previous five starts were quality outings, but Boston is 4.12 units in the hole at 1-4 with the 43-year-old northpaw on the hill.
It’s not easy being the best pitcher alive. Halladay (2.91 xFIP) has given Philadelphia eight quality starts and four complete games in nine appearances, but the Phillies lost the last two and are now 6-3 (-0.36 units) behind their $60-millon man. The UNDER is 5-4 in Halladay’s nine starts and 3-0 in those three defeats; the Phillies have given him 6.5 runs of support per home game and just 3.8 runs on the road.
The first run of interleague play on the MLB schedule takes place this weekend. The battered Boston Red Sox will be in Philadelphia to battle Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay and the rest of the Phils staff.
Are you looking for a good deal on a slightly used baseball team? The Boston Red Sox are available at 12-1 to win the 2010 World Series, down from 13-2 when the betting odds opened. It’s a bargain price for a talented squad.
But the reason the Red Sox are a bargain is that they’ve started the season at 22-20 (-4.54 units), and half their roster is on the disabled list.
Or perhaps you’d prefer the reigning National League champions. The Philadelphia Phillies are relatively healthy and happy at 25-15 (2.98 units), tops on the senior circuit and behind only the 30-11 Tampa Bay Rays for first overall.
The Phillies have yet to lose a series this month. They’re fourth in the majors with a .798 OPS; Boston is second at .801, but that’s in the American League with the designated hitter, and there will be no DHing allowed when the Red Sox visit the Phillies this weekend for a three-game interleague series at Citizens Bank Park.
The Red Sox might be able to swing the bat on par with the Phillies, but when it comes to pitching, the comparison isn’t so flattering. Philadelphia is once again fourth in the majors with a 4.05 xFIP, while Boston is way down the table at No. 22 with a 4.48 xFIP, down from 4.31 last year and 4.28 in 2008. Here are the projected starters for this series; note that the forecast calls for a 40 percent chance of showers moving in for Saturday night.
Game 1: John Lackey vs. Cole Hamels (-135, 9)
Friday - 7:05 p.m. (ET)
Lackey (4.85 xFIP) simply hasn’t panned out for the Red Sox since leaving the Los Angeles Angels and singing that five-year, $82-million contract in the offseason. He may be over the hill at age 31; his strikeout rate is a career-low 5.58 per nine innings, and Lackey is walking a career-high 3.78 batters per nine innings. The Sox have won four of his eight starts for a deficit of 1.93 units.
Hamels (3.72 xFIP) had some yips in the playoffs last year, but his production level during the 2010 regular season is as high as always. The Phillies are 6-2 in his eight starts and 2.79 units in the black; each of the last three games went UNDER the posted total. Philadelphia is a -135 favorite in this matchup with a total of nine runs.
Game 2: Daisuke Matsuzaka vs. Kyle Kendrick
Saturday - 7:10 p.m. (ET)
These are frustrating times for Matsuzaka (4.60 xFIP, 7.89 ERA) and his supporters. He pitched a brilliant game on May 11 against the Toronto Blue Jays, allowing one run over seven innings and striking out nine, then got shelled six days later by the New York Yankees. Matsuzaka and Red Sox catcher Victor Martinez appear to be having some trouble getting along these days; Martinez wants more fastballs, and his pitcher is shaking him off.
Kendrick (4.82 lifetime xFIP) is hanging onto that No. 5 spot in the Philly rotation by coming up with the occasional gem, like Monday’s 12-2 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates (+173). That’s Kendrick’s third quality start of the season. The Phillies are 4-4 (-0.69 units) in his eight appearances thus far.
Game 3: Tim Wakefield vs. Roy Halladay
Sunday - 1:35 p.m. (ET)
The Red Sox have put Josh Beckett on the 15-day DL with a strained back, so veteran knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (5.05 xFIP) gets another shot at the rotation. Three of Wakefield’s previous five starts were quality outings, but Boston is 4.12 units in the hole at 1-4 with the 43-year-old northpaw on the hill.
It’s not easy being the best pitcher alive. Halladay (2.91 xFIP) has given Philadelphia eight quality starts and four complete games in nine appearances, but the Phillies lost the last two and are now 6-3 (-0.36 units) behind their $60-millon man. The UNDER is 5-4 in Halladay’s nine starts and 3-0 in those three defeats; the Phillies have given him 6.5 runs of support per home game and just 3.8 runs on the road.
