This is not something new but still majority of baseball cappers focus on starting pitchers too much I guess? I know odds are effected by Starting Pitcher but come on, they're not have a "huge" part in game. I don't say they're not important but they're not "so much" important (excluding Roy Halladay, LoL!) in my opinion.. Feel free to agree or disagree..
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Agreed. Experience in baseball capping has given me the wisdom to always add the bullpen to the equation. Like you said starting pitchers do influence the line a great deal but the are overated when it comes to the capping of games.Comment -
thats why im starting to like the first 5 inns play more ...than the full game . i believe starting pitchers affect the 1st 5 inns only !!Comment -
Picking a team with a good batting and run average is more important than backing a starter pitcherComment -
Exactly.. That's what I wanted to say. Starting Pitchers are overrated in First 5 Innings bets as well. If you can't score runs, then you can't win..
For example, if Roy Halladay was playing in Seattle or Kansas City, do you think he will have same W/L? I don't think so.. Phillies give him great run support.. he's a great pitcher too. Definetely, he's an exception when I say starting pitchers are overrated in baseball..Comment -
I vehemently disagree. If you cap starting pitchers correctly it is a license to print money.
Here is why I say this.
What is the difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter over 8 games?
Let's say we're talking 32 at bats. The .250 hitter will have 8 hits. The .300 hitter will have 9.6 hits. So, the .300 hitter is worth 1.6 more hits in 8 games than the .250 hitter.
What's the difference between Lincecum and Wellemeyer over 2 starts (8 days)? I don't even have to answer that question do I? The answer is 6 runs. There is no hitter in the lineup that can make up the difference between having Lincecum instead of Wellemeyer.
Here's where I think the problem lies if you don't think capping starting pitching has value. To CORRECTLY cap a starting pitcher you have to look at a LOT of stats.
Following is a formula that an old timer handicapper gave me when I lived in Vegas last summer. The guy was astonishing.
Some of these stats he used as Knockouts. If the pitcher's numbers for this stat were not within a certain range, he wouldn't even consider that pitcher. The knockout stats were ERA, WHIP, GB/FB ratio, Last Outing, and Pitcher blasted out last outing.
Pitcher stats:
Last Outing Overall (knockout stat)
Pitcher was blasted out of game last outing in 1st or 2nd inning (knockout stat)
ERA
WHIP (knockout stat)
BB/K ratio
GB/FB ratio (knockout stat)
lefty vs righty matchup
pitcher vs starting lineup lifetime stats
ballpark factor
wind factor
At Em (number of balls hit as line drives right at someone, the sabermatic guys call this 'luck'.)
These stats were weighted differently. WHIP and GB/FB were weighted most heavily, ERA was not weighted very highly.
We also looked at the pitcher's numbers on a trend line to see if the pitcher was improving, degrading, or staying level. We used several trend lines, season, pre/post-all star break, last 7 starts, last 3 starts, last start.
There were quite a few starters whose numbers were totally different post all star break, so you would have been better off using their post all star break numbers instead of their YTD numbers.
Once you crunched all these numbers you then looked at the bull pen to see if you wanted to back the starter for the game or for the first 5 innings or both.
There was also a weighting on the amount to be wagered based on the cumulative stats and the odds being layed or taken.
One thing that was most amazing about this old timer was that he was not computer literate. I don't know how he assembled all his stats. I know he made lots of phone calls right before games started to ask about things like wind, I have no idea who he was calling.
Anyway, the starting pitcher matters more than anything else you can cap.Comment -
bump back up ,good readComment -
I disagree, starting pitchers are NOT overrated; however, you are right that there are many other factors. One who blindly wagers on or against the starter alone is toast in the long run.Comment -
I'm new and just started the roughest of rough draft capping systems....as per usual with us new guys the starting pitchers have a certain level of significance.....having said that....i like what curious has to say, a lot....i can side somewhat with you here sawyer....see Oswalt, Greinke, etc....but in the long run your aces are where it's at.....and i think more often than not the run support will be there....atleast in factoring where the team is emotionally when their ace is on the bump....pressure to perform and all that....good thread tho man, promotes some good convo.....Comment -
i agree starting pitchers are overrated.
that being said is their a site i can go to and find out the best and worst bullpens?Comment -
I should start looking more at the 1st 5 line.Comment
