Yanks r\l chase... opinions welcome and appreciated

[ShowMeDaMoney]

Will be taking Yankees -1.5 every game to win a unit. I haven't yet figured it out for sure, but I think the furthest I'm willing to go is 4 bets in the chase. I figure of those four games the Yankees should win one of those games by 2. I'll be taking reverse run lines when they aren't favored, like today against Boston.

Do you guys think I'm too late to the show? Been taking the Yankees a bunch, maybe Vegas has already adjusted their lines for the Yankees? What do you think the highest the Yankees could be -1.5? -130?

Do you guys this this is a bad idea? I've never done a chase system ever but I figured I could do it rather small.

L1: 33\30
L2: 75.6\63
L3: 165\138
L4: 364\303


L1 is based on -110 juice, and the next three legs are based on -120 juice. I doubt they are gonna carry that type of chalk on average for run lines, but I figured I'd use -120 as our base so that I know what I'd be facing should the chase go to the fourth leg. Is this a terrible idea? Had I started it at the beginning of the year I'd be killing it but I think Vegas\Public may realize just how good this team is already. Should we lose the 364, we would have needed to win 12 chases prior to that to break even.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

Had you done this from the beginning of the year you'd be up a shit load, and would have gone to L2 3 times, and L3 twice. Thoughts?

[ebbearsfb1]

its a good idea... i do it using labby lines instead and mainly on home series.... home series last year each series they won a game by 2 except for once

[stevex]

I'm going to be doing a similar chase, but only when the Yankees are at home. I'm going to bet that they win at least one of the games in a series at home, then just move on to the next.

[ShowMeDaMoney]

interesting... what is labby lines? I wonder how this system would have worked on the road... do you know how many units you made doing it for home games? I was considering not taking the -1.5 if it's above -130, but that sort of throws the system off a bit.....

do you guys anticipate Vegas really jacking up their R\L juice to -140 to -150 just because they know it's an easy bet? Am I too late to the party?

[ShowMeDaMoney]

ironically the Yankees haven't won a single game this year by 1 run... every single time they've won they have won by two. Can we get a math guy in here to analyze the numbers? If we expect to see a 100 win year out of the Yankees, and they win say... 80% of those games by 2 or more... what is our estimated outcome?

[stevex]

Just playing the run line I feel will be to risky, ALTHOUGH. You have to figure when there at home, the ML is going to be ridiculously high

[ebbearsfb1]

covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=935708&t=0 to understand the labby lines