Thursday, 05/06 MLB Plays 100+ Units Or Bust

[snapstick]

I will be posting a daily thread instead of a season long thread to eliminate all the clutter and to make it easier to retrieve the plays. I will have my plays and information used to formulate my plays this afternoon. BOL

YTD: 9-6, +1.86 units

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Gl today Snapstick...

[JRswish]

gl dude... this is america lol... innocent till proven guilty
btw nice calls last night

[snapstick]

Gl today Snapstick...

gl dude... this is america lol... innocent till proven guilty
btw nice calls last night

[jordan]

where are the plays???

[snapstick]

where are the plays???

I havent posted them yet.

[SolidDala]

One would assume a person betting real money entering a new thread containing 4 posts actually knows how to read and have the patience to do so.. guess I assumed wrong...

[snapstick]

One would assume a person betting real money entering a new thread containing 4 posts actually knows how to read and have the patience to do so.. guess I assumed wrong...

[tavinator13]

Edit: sorry wrong thread.

[snapstick]

My plays will start to post in the next 30 min..BOL

[snapstick]

1. The website used to track and monitor the current lines is www.sbrodds.com
2. The site used to retrieve the Pitchers ratings and statistics is www.sagarin.com
3. The information used to create MY Money Line is the log5formula and a spreadsheet formula.
4. The source used to retrieve team batting statistics is a team batting daily updated spreadsheet.



Atlanta Braves (T. Hudson) @ Washington Nationals (S. Olsen)

My Projected Money Line: Washington Nationals -150
Opening Line (5dimes): Atlanta Braves -130
Current Line (5Dimes): Atlanta Braves -130

MY Projected Money Line vs. Current Money Line: Advantage Atlanta Braves (High)
Team Batting: Advantage Atlanta Braves (Low)
Starting Pitching: Advantage Atlanta Braves (High)
Bullpen Pitching: Advantage Atlanta Braves (High)

PLAY #1

Atlanta Braves -130
1.30 to win 1.0

Atlanta Braves Value Range: +115 to -180

[venture]

Thanks for the insight on how you make your picks

[snapstick]

Thanks for the insight on how you make your picks

Your welcome...needless to say i enjoy what i do.

[Diamond Hustler]

I like the Braves too tonight, I think everyone will unfortunately.. confused on this though.

My Projected Money Line: Washington Nationals -150

I'm guessing that should be a +150 instead...?

[snapstick]

I like the Braves too tonight, I think everyone will unfortunately.. confused on this though.





I'm guessing that should be a +150 instead...?

No it is posted correctly, believe it or not.

[BiffTFinancial]

i saw Nats -150 too, and figured he meant Braves -150 and it was a typo. BOL tonight snap. like the Braves pick.

wait, just saw your follow-up post, that your projected line was Nats -150. maybe i'm missing the concept, but if your line is Nats -150, and actual line is Braves -130, why wouldn't you be playing the Nats? just curious, trying to learn, no intention to slam you. i appreciate your showing your methods, and agree with others that you shouldn't have to.

[JRswish]

i have the same question

[snapstick]

i saw Nats -150 too, and figured he meant Braves -150 and it was a typo. BOL tonight snap. like the Braves pick.

wait, just saw your follow-up post, that your projected line was Nats -150. maybe i'm missing the concept, but if your line is Nats -150, and actual line is Braves -130, why wouldn't you be playing the Nats? just curious, trying to learn, no intention to slam you. i appreciate your showing your methods, and agree with others that you shouldn't have to.

Your questions are always welcome and it is a very valid question that most would ask looking at the numbers that i posted.

Answer: Most would think that if my Projected Money Line is the Nats -150 and the current Money Line is Nats +120 the Nats would be the play and thats NOT TRUE. Utilizing my line versus the current line I follow the current line and the money thus the Braves are the play. By looking at the opening line at 5Dimes (Atlanta -130) and my Projected Money Line (Atlanta +140) there is an expected performance value of 70 cents on the dollar, which is a huge advantage for Atlanta. Basically this works in the opposite way that most people would think and i hope that explains it better.

[BiffTFinancial]

aha. so, you're saying that this is the books tipping their hands by moving the actual line by 70c from the line that your system produces as the appropriate line? if so, intriguing....

[snapstick]

This example may better explain:

Texas Rangers Current Money Line -175
Texas Rangers Proj. Money Line -140

The play is ON Texas

NY Yankees Current Money Line -120
NY Yankees Proj. Money Line -160

The play is ON the NY Yankees opponent

[sycoogtit]

Weird. That makes no sense to me, but that just tells you how betting-challenged I am.

[snapstick]

aha. so, you're saying that this is the books tipping their hands by moving the actual line by 70c from the line that your system produces as the appropriate line? if so, intriguing....

You hit the nail on the head...exactly right.

[sycoogtit]

Ah! Got it. Reading Biff's reply got it for me. That's really damn cool.

[snapstick]

Ah! Got it. Reading Biff's reply got it for me. That's really damn cool.

Their are a few more sides that would also be a play for me tonight but they did not meet all the filters to make them a play (Losing streaks, ect.). Also even though pitching stats are included in Projecting a line, the team I play must have the advantage is at least 2 out of the 3 following categories and i will include the information from my play post #11.

Team Batting: Advantage Atlanta Braves (Low)
Starting Pitching: Advantage Atlanta Braves (High)
Bullpen Pitching: Advantage Atlanta Braves (High)

[BiffTFinancial]

thanks a lot for the explanation, snap. it's counter-intuitive, but i just have to remember one of the best lessons i've learned in handicapping: intuition is often worthless, as your brain wants to be a square, and if you follow your natural instincts, you'll get slaughtered. contrarian = sharp. maybe it was Pair of 5's who said that....

anyway, thanks and BOL.

[snapstick]

I think i will include this information each day I post so that everyone understands my thinking process and the stradegy behind these plays to maybe make them more confident if they do wager on these plays.

[snapstick]

thanks a lot for the explanation, snap. it's counter-intuitive, but i just have to remember one of the best lessons i've learned in handicapping: intuition is often worthless, as your brain wants to be a square, and if you follow your natural instincts, you'll get slaughtered. contrarian = sharp. maybe it was Pair of 5's who said that....

anyway, thanks and BOL.

Very accurate post and your welcome. Please stop on by more often...havent seen you to many times with comments in my threads...Your always welcome of course as is everyone. BOL

[snapstick]

ALSO...The "Value Range" that was included under my play is the line range to play the Braves. So as long as the Braves line is anywhere in the 'Value Range" they are a play. Of course the lower the line for the Braves the better.

[gushman]

So do you think there will be other plays tonight?

[SolidDala]

excellent explanation! Its kinda like late movement, when you have bought it at -110 and 15 minutes later the line at -113, then you feel you made the right choice

my apologies for my earlier post, uncalled for and not my place to say, just that don't like see people losing and with no patience thats where the road is heading, anyways BOL luck tonight boys and girls!

[snapstick]

excellent explanation! Its kinda like late movement, when you have bought it at -110 and 15 minutes later the line at -113, then you feel you made the right choice

my apologies for my earlier post, uncalled for and not my place to say, just that don't like see people losing and with no patience thats where the road is heading, anyways BOL luck tonight boys and girls!

You are correct. Its against the norm so it is easy to explain but can be hard to understand. No apology needed but thanks. Its a long season and know its hard to blindly tail someone with your hard earned cash but i try to explain the best way i can to give others confidence if they do wager on these plays...BOL to you.

[snapstick]

1. The website used to track and monitor the current lines is www.sbrodds.com
2. The site used to retrieve the Pitchers ratings and statistics is www.sagarin.com
3. The information used to create MY Money Line is the log5formula and a spreadsheet formula.
4. The source used to retrieve team batting statistics is a team batting daily updated spreadsheet.



Atlanta Braves (T. Hudson) @ Washington Nationals (S. Olsen)

My Projected Money Line: Washington Nationals -150
Opening Line (5dimes): Atlanta Braves -130
Current Line (5Dimes): Atlanta Braves -130

MY Projected Money Line vs. Current Money Line: Advantage Atlanta Braves (High)
Team Batting: Advantage Atlanta Braves (Low)
Starting Pitching: Advantage Atlanta Braves (High)
Bullpen Pitching: Advantage Atlanta Braves (High)

PLAY #1

Atlanta Braves -130
1.30 to win 1.0

Atlanta Braves Value Range: +115 to -180

I will have just one play tonight. Its a light card tonight and this is the only play that qualified and met all filters.

[tavinator13]

Interesting indeed. Snap is there any way you could pm/email me the spreadsheet you use or more information on this log5formula. I know I asked you earlier about this and you said to wait a bit, but its worth a shot

During the NBA regular season I did something very similar where I used Statfox projected side line and compaired it to the opening book line. The idea being that the books in the long run would beat "the stats" of statfox so to speak, and thus they would tip you on how to bet. it was around 65% successful (until the last few weeks when teams stopped caring).

I am very interested on the inputs to this projected line as this seems to be the same strategy. New to betting baseball so any help is appreciated. BOL today

[snapstick]

Also if you would like to receive these plays via email instead of fisting through all the clutter in the daily threads drop me a PM and i will add you to my list. If you dont have enough posts to send a PM let me know in the daily thread and i will PM you my email address. Please do not post your email address in the daily threads as i do not think it is allowed by the SBR forum staff.

[tavinator13]

Interesting indeed. Snap is there any way you could pm/email me the spreadsheet you use or more information on this log5formula. I know I asked you earlier about this and you said to wait a bit, but its worth a shot During the NBA regular season I did something very similar where I used Statfox projected side line and compaired it to the opening book line. The idea being that the books in the long run would beat "the stats" of statfox so to speak, and thus they would tip you on how to bet. it was around 65% successful (until the last few weeks when teams stopped caring). I am very interested on the inputs to this projected line as this seems to be the same strategy. New to betting baseball so any help is appreciated. BOL today

NM found the log5formula, just curious what stats/formulas make up your spreadsheet.