And Thursday's MLB Winner is...

[LT Profits]

Red Sox -120 - Staying Alive! Beckett has been great both vs. Cleveland and in the post-season. Sabathia looked lost in Fenway, and truth be told, he didn't look that great vs. the Yankees in the first round either. C.C. has an ERA over 7.00 in his last four starts vs. the Sox.

[Willie Bee]

I love to debate trends with LT...

Yeah, but it's only a 4.57 ERA over his last three starts. Why include the numbers from his start against them in 2005 when two-thirds of the lineup that was part of the game on June 20th that year is no longer with Boston?

[LT Profits]

Point taken, although Pappi and Manny were already there. But if you want recency, look no further than Game 1.

And there is no escaping the fact that he did not look good in his previous start vs. the Yankees either, and that came here at the Jake.

[Willie Bee]

And there is no escaping the fact that he did not look good in his previous start vs. the Yankees either, and that came here at the Jake.

Who won that game? Sabathia's job against the Yankees wasn't much different than what Byrd did against them three games later to clinch the ALDS for Cleveland.

Here's some recent history for you: Indians averaging eight runs their last three while Sox scoring less than four.

[LT Profits]

Well, the Indians won't score eight runs vs. Beckett. Yes Boston offense is a concern, but Beckett will give them a chance to win a 3-1 or 3-2 type game. And if they rediscover their bats vs. C.C., then Sox win fairly easily.

Also, not that this has anything to do with this play, but if I lose this bet, I will still collect my 1/2 unit play on Cleveland +410 to win AL.

[Willie Bee]

Well, the Indians won't score eight runs vs. Beckett.

Will they score seven? Six? Five? How sure are you that Cleveland will only score one or two at the most?

Check this link out. Now check this link out.

[bigboydan]

I wanna back the Tribe in this game so badly, but even I know better than to do that Willie.

BTW... I'll see you at the window after the Red Sox ticket cashes for us tonight.

[Willie Bee]

First off, Dan, I'm primarily playing devil's advocate here.

How sure are either of you that anyone on either side of the game tonight will get to the pay window? Have y'all checked the weather out? Granted, the umpires will do everything within their power to get the game in. But what if it starts, goes two innings, then stops for a 40-minute or so rain delay and neither Blister Beckett nor Crooked Cap Sabathia can go back out to the mound. Are both of you sold on the depth of the Red Sox bullpen to bring home that low-scoring winner that you might need given the Red Sox offense the past few games?

Speaking of umpires, did y'all check out the stats on Gary Cederstrom who is supposed to be behind the plate this evening?

[pokernut9999]

No rain forecast tonight. High 60's and cloudy.

[pokernut9999]

Networks need TV game for weekend under MLB guidelines Cleveland must lay down tonight or forfiet revenue sharing.

[LT Profits]

Willie,

You "conveniently" ignored Beckett's three starts vs. Cleveland this year - 21 innings, 5 runs, 3 Quality Starts. Beckett did not have a good year in his first season in the AL last year, but this season is much more indicitive of his true talent.

[Willie Bee]

I ignored nothing, LT. All I did was post links to boxscores in which Blister had been touched for a bunch of runs against this Tribe lineup.

However, pokernutt did indeed conveniently ignore the wind in his weather report: Blowing out to left at 15-25 MPH.

[pokernut9999]

"Have y'all checked the weather out? Granted, the umpires will do everything within their power to get the game in. But what if it starts, goes two innings, then stops for a 40-minute or so rain delay and neither Blister Beckett nor Crooked Cap Sabathia can go back out to the mound. "

And the wind has what to do with this? I was commenting on no delays for weather, nothing about the total of the game as far as runs being scored.

Fish not biting today Willie? seem a little on the edge.

[Doc JS]

Red Sox -120 - Staying Alive! Beckett has been great both vs. Cleveland and in the post-season. Sabathia looked lost in Fenway, and truth be told, he didn't look that great vs. the Yankees in the first round either. C.C. has an ERA over 7.00 in his last four starts vs. the Sox.

Hope you're right, LT!!

[Willie Bee]

Fish not biting today Willie? seem a little on the edge.

Damn, how I wish I was out fishing with nary a nibble. A bad day wettin' a line is better than a good day at work.

Just completing the weather report, p-nutt, that's all.

[pokernut9999]

Damn, how I wish I was out fishing with nary a nibble. A bad day wettin' a line is better than a good day at work.

Just completing the weather report, p-nutt, that's all.

I was just joking anyway Willie

[paytheline]

CC has not had any control...which may not matter if the sox continue to lack an offensive attack....they do however tend to score runs for beckett....

i believe beckett will bring them back to boston...with a replay of a wild game 2 on saturday.......

best of luck with your plays

[Checkerboard]

waited and took CLE ml

[pokernut9999]

Good call LT

[tacomax]

How sure are you that Cleveland will only score one or two at the most?

[tacomax]

Yeah, but it's only a 4.57 ERA over his last three starts. Why include the numbers from his start against them in 2005 when two-thirds of the lineup that was part of the game on June 20th that year is no longer with Boston?

I never quite understand that methodology. People say pitcher X has a X for Y record against team Z which may be a indication over a single season (however it could be purely down to variance) but when that record goes back 2+ years when most current players weren't on the team it's a pretty meaningless statistic.

[Willie Bee]

That might have meant something if you'd been in here before the game started suggesting that would happen.

Good game for LT and the Sawks backers

[BatemanPatrickl]

I never quite understand that methodology. People say pitcher X has a X for Y record against team Z which may be a indication over a single season (however it could be purely down to variance) but when that record goes back 2+ years when most current players weren't on the team it's a pretty meaningless statistic.

Methodology? I think you mean "statistics" and they are used by people who actually gamble

[tacomax]

No, I think I mean "methodology". Methodology is a system of methods or rules for a particular activity. Indeed, you can use statistics to formulate a methodology. I think that's where you might have got a little confused.