Me against the world parlay

gryfyn1 · 05-04-10, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by pinnacle212

A whole slew of people are taking these picks. NATS and Orlando -9
The Board, the public and my grandma.
So I will be taking the Hawks +9 and Braves ML

First person with a GOOD OPINION GETS 3 POINTS

I like the Braves pick -- Livan is due for a market correction, the Braves offense has looked good the last week and Nats offense have looked bad, I haven'y a clue why the Nats have so much support.

As for the Hawks, its reasonable that they can keep this close, they will have a hard time matching up, but the outside shooting of Orlando can come out cold after a long layoff and if they struggle a lil bit the hawks can keep it close. Not to mention this is projected to a fairly low scoring affair (o/u is 191) so 96-92 game is likely

pinnacle212 · 05-04-10, 12:59 PM

Originally posted by gryfyn1

I like the Braves pick -- Livan is due for a market correction, the Braves offense has looked good the last week and Nats offense have looked bad, I haven'y a clue why the Nats have so much support. As for the Hawks, its reasonable that they can keep this close, they will have a hard time matching up, but the outside shooting of Orlando can come out cold after a long layoff and if they struggle a lil bit the hawks can keep it close. Not to mention this is projected to a fairly low scoring affair (o/u is 191) so 96-92 game is likely

Not a bad opinion. I like a it. YOU GET THE 3 points.
5 POINTS FOR A GOOD COUNTER ARGUMENT

SargeantHooker · 05-04-10, 01:43 PM

No counter argument from me, I agree with both of your plays. I don't however see how the Hawks will have such a hard time matching up (as posted above.) I'll take Joe Johnson and Josh Smith over Carter and Lewis any day. To me those are even match-ups. Sure Dwight will be a force, but Horford is an All Star and no slouch inside. Jamal Crawford is the best 6th man in the league. This is going to come down to old man Bibby & inconsistant Jameer Nelson. When Nelson is cold things get tough on Orlando. It also doesn't help that Atlanta might have the worst coach in the playoffs. Good luck to you tonight.

mp5070 · 05-04-10, 01:53 PM

For the Magic -9 because Magic are a STRONG HOME TEAM vs a WEAK ROAD TEAM. Magic is well rested while the Hawks are coming of a t GAME SERIES. Magic can shoot the 3s as well as rebound very well against the Hawks.

For Nats: LIVAN, thats about it. The only offense that Nats have consistently is Zimmerman. Nats are 7-6 at home while Braves are 3-10 on the ROAD. Livan is 3-1 .87ERA while Kawakami is 0-4 5.48ERA. This is tough game to cap because it will be played tough rather than people think it will be played. Majority of the world is on Nats, but it will be hard to pull the trigger especially a fighting team like the Braves.

pinnacle212 · 05-04-10, 01:55 PM

Still looking for a GOOD COUNTER ARGUMENT. UP TO 10 points now

libwire · 05-04-10, 01:55 PM

orlando will cover, brves is a good bet though

Postman78 · 05-04-10, 01:56 PM

Gryfyn1 is wrong now gimme my points

mp5070 · 05-04-10, 01:57 PM

I had a GOOD COUNTER ARGUMENT!

SolidDala · 05-04-10, 01:58 PM

A person should never go against his granny, EVER! Thats bad karma right there...

thebestthereis · 05-04-10, 02:14 PM

grandma is always right

pinnacle212 · 05-04-10, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by mp5070

For the Magic -9 because Magic are a STRONG HOME TEAM vs a WEAK ROAD TEAM. (+2) Magic is well rested while the Hawks are coming of a t GAME SERIES. (This can go both ways what if they are rusty.-1. Magic can shoot the 3s as well as rebound very well against the Hawks. Orlando does have the rebound edge vs the Hawks. 1-1-1 for 3 Pointers (+3) For Nats: LIVAN, thats about it. The only offense that Nats have consistently is Zimmerman. Nats are 7-6 at home while Braves are 3-10 on the ROAD. Livan is 3-1 .87ERA while Kawakami is 0-4 5.48ERA.+2 This is tough game to cap because it will be played tough rather than people think it will be played. Majority of the world is on Nats, but it will be hard to pull the trigger especially a fighting team like the Braves.

Good Post

gryfyn1 · 05-04-10, 02:17 PM

OK,

How can you go with teh Braves? The have been a train wreck on the road (3-10) and had to play a woeful Houston team (8-17) in order to get some wins. Livan has been hot at the beginning of the season (3-1, .87 ERA, .87 WHIP).

The Braves will be rolling out Kawakami who struggled vs the Nats (12Run in 18 IP asn a 1.6 WHIP) and even worse in nationals stadium (9 runs in 9.1 IP and a 2.03 WHIP in two starts)

As for the Hawks, they are playing a well rested Orlando team that causes match-up problems espically inside vs Howard (21-17 this year) - in 4 meetings so far the Orlando is 3-1 vs the Hawks in including wins by 17, 32, 18 (32 and 18 @ Orlando).

The Hawks have been brutal on the road (19-22, with loses of 18 & 8 to the Bucks in rnd 1). And only Cleveland posted a better home record than Orlando's 34-7 record), A double digit win over the Hawks seems like a slam dunk

---- this is why I love sports betting

Papaya941 · 05-04-10, 02:49 PM

Originally posted by mp5070

For the Magic -9 because Magic are a STRONG HOME TEAM vs a WEAK ROAD TEAM. Magic is well rested while the Hawks are coming of a t GAME SERIES. Magic can shoot the 3s as well as rebound very well against the Hawks.

For Nats: LIVAN, thats about it. The only offense that Nats have consistently is Zimmerman. Nats are 7-6 at home while Braves are 3-10 on the ROAD. Livan is 3-1 .87ERA while Kawakami is 0-4 5.48ERA. This is tough game to cap because it will be played tough rather than people think it will be played. Majority of the world is on Nats, but it will be hard to pull the trigger especially a fighting team like the Braves.

Counter Argument #2
(Playing the devils advocate card here)
The Magic being more rested than the Hawks can cause some other issues which can sometimes be overlooked. Magic have had Howard benched due to foul trouble in Series 1 which could have disrupted the chemistry he had on the floor with his team. This could lead to mistakes which can turn into opposing points. The Hawks came out in the last game of Series 1 and really stepped up their game, battling long and hard, never giving up to the Bucks which could have ironed out all the kinks that caused them to lose the ones they did. We know that Johnson has been the motivational and emotional leader of this Hawks team which I fell Orlando has none of. Orlando loses when they are pissed, and wins when they are calm. Hawks are the opposite. Once again I lean with the under here because of the defensive orientation of the two squads. Its going to be a hard fought battle till "crunch time" if Hawks keep it close till the 4th quarter with 4mins to go I see them winning this one. If Hawks keep it together till the 4th then Orlando pulls ahead by 6, the lead will ultimately reach double digits.

Originally posted by gryfyn1

I like the Braves pick -- Livan is due for a market correction, the Braves offense has looked good the last week and Nats offense have looked bad, I haven'y a clue why the Nats have so much support.

As for the Hawks, its reasonable that they can keep this close, they will have a hard time matching up, but the outside shooting of Orlando can come out cold after a long layoff and if they struggle a lil bit the hawks can keep it close. Not to mention this is projected to a fairly low scoring affair (o/u is 191) so 96-92 game is likely

Counter Argument #1
Orlando -9 1/2 is the play here or nothing. Basketball is won and lost in the paint, sure 3's and jumpers make for high scores and relaxants but the big men down low will always open up these opportunities. Orlando has the big me in Gortat-atat and Foul out Howard to really squeeze that Atlanta defense down low and create huge gaps for Carter, Peitrus, Barnes, ect ect. Offensively we have seen that Atlanta cannot generate as much momentum and relies heavily on Johnson for motivation and drive. My next point is Howard being benched more than average in series 1. People might think this is a disadvantage here, but Howard is a big guy which the time spent sitting could have prevented that "wear and tear" we see so much from tall guys like him. He had a chance to watch his players sitting on the bench, taking in everything he heard from his coach and team mates. Defensively, Orlando also reigns supreme which makes me lean on the under here in this one. There is not a single player I could call out that isnt as good as the next one defensively. Granted, Atlanta has the capability of shutting down plays as well but when the push comes to shove and its crunch time then Atlanta will be tired and gassed and Orlando will pull away and generate offense off of Hawks mistakes.

pinnacle212 · 05-04-10, 02:59 PM

[quote=Papaya941;4393891] Counter Argument #1 Orlando -9 1/2 is the play here or nothing. Basketball is won and lost in the paint, sure 3's and jumpers make for high scores and relaxants but the big men down low will always open up these opportunities. Orlando has the big me in Gortat-atat+2 and Foul out Howard -3 to really squeeze that Atlanta defense down low and create huge gaps for Carter, Peitrus, Barnes, ect ect. Offensively we have seen that Atlanta cannot generate as much momentum and relies heavily on Johnson for motivation and drive. My next point is Howard being benched more than average in series 1. People might think this is a disadvantage here, but Howard is a big guy which the time spent sitting could have prevented that "wear and tear" we see so much from tall guys like him. (How does it help to have your superstar on the bench. He is not a role player. -2 He had a chance to watch his players sitting on the bench, taking in everything he heard from his coach and team mates. Defensively, Orlando also reigns supreme which makes me lean on the under here in this one. There is not a single player I could call out that isnt as good as the next one defensively. Granted, Atlanta has the capability of shutting down plays as well but when the push comes to shove and its crunch time then Atlanta will be tired and gassed -3 The team is younger than my kids and Orlando will pull away and generate offense off of Hawks mistakes.+1[/quote

found wanting

pinnacle212 · 05-04-10, 03:11 PM

Thanks for the feedback guys. I am putting in my play and this is why. Its not as scientific as you may think. I am pretty much fading the public and the board. I have been doing this for a couple of days now. I had 8 bucks in an old account and I started playing. Now I have 209. I look through the boards for slam dunks post and everybody agreeing. Well these two jumped out at me.

Example there was a Sunday Night Game Phillies and Mets. With Santana on the mound. Everybody loved it. I think I played devils advocate on a thread. We all know how that ended.

Last night Phoenix. The Media had the Spurs juiced. I must have seen that Nash crack back block a thousand times. Everyone on the board loved it. Boom Spurs lost.

Just for shits and giggles i like the Phillies ML. Line has been moving like crazy and St Louis struggles against Lefties.

My advice bet them separate only a fool like me bets parlays. Thanks again