1. #1
    imotiv8
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    2021 MLB +1.5 Strategy

    Letís get it!

  2. #2

  3. #3
    grecycle99
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    SYSTEM #2

    This system we will look for teams that have lost 4 games SU and against the RL (lose by 2 or more runs). We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL

    2020 System to Date: 1-0 (finished series)
    System Profit/Loss: 1U (finished series)
    Current Open Series: 1

    G1 - (A) 1-1
    G2 - (B) 0
    -1
    G3 - (C)
    0-0

    April 4 : OAK A BET RL+ --- LOST
    April 5 : OAK B BET RL+
    --- LOST
    April 5: BOS A BET RL+ --- WIN
    April 6 : MIL A BET RL+ -190
    April 6 : OAK C BET RL+ -112

    SYSTEM #3


    This system we will look for teams that have lost 3 games SU and against the RL (lose by 2 or more runs). We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL

    2019
    System to Date: 0-0
    (finished series)
    System Profit/Loss: 0U (finished series)
    Current Open Series: 1

    G1 - (A) 0-1
    G2 - (B) 0-0
    G3 - (C) 0-0

    April 5 : OAK A BET RL+ --- LOSS
    April 6 : OAK B BET RL+ -190
    Points Awarded:

    imotiv8 gave grecycle99 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.

    KingofKOP gave grecycle99 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  4. #4
    KingofKOP
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    Are the games backwards? MIL has only lost 3 straight. Boston only lost 3 straight. Thanks for tracking all this!

  5. #5
    spankmythighs
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  6. #6
    spankmythighs
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    Took a year off. I wasn't sure about a shortened season last year. Looks like it went well

  7. #7
    spankmythighs
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    Quote Originally Posted by grecycle99 View Post
    SYSTEM #2

    This system we will look for teams that have lost 4 games SU and against the RL (lose by 2 or more runs). We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL

    2020 System to Date: 1-0 (finished series)
    System Profit/Loss: 1U (finished series)
    Current Open Series: 1

    G1 - (A) 1-1
    G2 - (B) 0
    -1
    G3 - (C)
    0-0

    April 4 : OAK A BET RL+ --- LOST
    April 5 : OAK B BET RL+
    --- LOST
    April 5: BOS A BET RL+ --- WIN
    April 6 : MIL A BET RL+ -190
    April 6 : OAK C BET RL+ -112

    SYSTEM #3


    This system we will look for teams that have lost 3 games SU and against the RL (lose by 2 or more runs). We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL

    2019
    System to Date: 0-0
    (finished series)
    System Profit/Loss: 0U (finished series)
    Current Open Series: 1

    G1 - (A) 0-1
    G2 - (B) 0-0
    G3 - (C) 0-0

    April 5 : OAK A BET RL+ --- LOSS
    April 6 : OAK B BET RL+ -190
    Grey what are we doing for LOSS recovery? How many games?

  8. #8
    spankmythighs
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingofKOP View Post
    Are the games backwards? MIL has only lost 3 straight. Boston only lost 3 straight. Thanks for tracking all this!
    You would be correct. They should be flipped. C on System #3 and B on #2

  9. #9
    spankmythighs
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    Quote Originally Posted by spankmythighs View Post
    You would be correct. They should be flipped. C on System #3 and B on #2
    Sorry that comment was just for OAK

  10. #10
    MexMamba
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    Wow big blowout to my bankroll very early in the season

  11. #11
    spankmythighs
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    Quote Originally Posted by MexMamba View Post
    Wow big blowout to my bankroll very early in the season
    You should only be chasing to win 2 to 3% of your bankroll. Big blowout? Money management is key
    Points Awarded:

    imotiv8 gave spankmythighs 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  12. #12
    spankmythighs
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    Quote Originally Posted by MexMamba View Post
    Wow big blowout to my bankroll very early in the season
    You may want to try level betting the A and B bets too with system #3. They typically run about 60% or better win ratio. I run a separate system for all A bets and B bets. Its a level betting martingale of sorts that I use for soccer live betting. Depending on the odds and returns, in soccer I do -200 or better live so its structured like this:

    50-50-50 150-150-150 450-450-450

    3 wins at any level constitutes a level win and gets you back to the beginning. Baseball would probably avg -150 to -200 so adjust accordingly

  13. #13
    spankmythighs
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    Last year System #3 for A and B:

    G1 - (A) 45-20
    G2 - (B) 15-6

  14. #14
    grecycle99
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingofKOP View Post
    Are the games backwards? MIL has only lost 3 straight. Boston only lost 3 straight. Thanks for tracking all this!
    Yes my bads Thanks for catching that

  15. #15
    grecycle99
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    Quote Originally Posted by spankmythighs View Post
    Last year System #3 for A and B:

    G1 - (A) 45-20
    G2 - (B) 15-6
    Glad to see you back spank! Are you able to take over?, I have a lot on my plate this days! Thanks

  16. #16
    Pacific Square
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    Brutal loss right off the bat.

    Unbelievable..

  17. #17
    MexMamba
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    Quote Originally Posted by spankmythighs View Post
    You should only be chasing to win 2 to 3% of your bankroll. Big blowout? Money management is key
    I follow 2 systems home opener and this one
    In less than a week we are already down around 60 units...i dont know your bankroll but for me 60 units its about 120% of my bankroll

  18. #18
    spankmythighs
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    Quote Originally Posted by MexMamba View Post
    I follow 2 systems home opener and this one
    In less than a week we are already down around 60 units...i dont know your bankroll but for me 60 units its about 120% of my bankroll
    No sure about the other system you are playing but for System #3 you shouldnt be down more than 10 units. The last 3 OAK +1.5 best were: -179, -120, -105

    You are doing something wrong. There would be a C Bet on System #2 for OAK today and MIL won last night

  19. #19
    spankmythighs
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    Quote Originally Posted by spankmythighs View Post
    No sure about the other system you are playing but for System #3 you shouldnt be down more than 10 units. The last 3 OAK +1.5 best were: -179, -120, -105

    You are doing something wrong. There would be a C Bet on System #2 for OAK today and MIL won last night
    *bets

  20. #20
    spankmythighs
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    Quote Originally Posted by grecycle99 View Post
    Glad to see you back spank! Are you able to take over?, I have a lot on my plate this days! Thanks
    Post todays and then I can pick it up

  21. #21
    spankmythighs
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    Should just be a System #2 C bet for OAK today

  22. #22
    spankmythighs
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    Recoup on OAK in System #3 begins. New loss tracking on OAK begins too on System #3 so no play until they lose another 3 in a row by 2 or more runs

  23. #23
    spankmythighs
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    SYSTEM #2

    This system we will look for teams that have lost 4 games SU and against the RL (lose by 2 or more runs). We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL

    2021 System to Date: 3-0 (finished series)
    System Profit/Loss: 3U (finished series)
    Current Open Series: 0

    G1 - (A) 2-1
    G2 - (B) 1
    -1
    G3 - (C)
    0-0

    April 4 : OAK A BET RL+ --- LOST
    April 5 : OAK B BET RL+
    --- LOST
    April 5: BOS A BET RL+ --- WIN
    April 6 : MIL A BET RL+ -190 --- WIN
    April 6 : OAK B BET RL+ -112 ---LOSS
    April 7: OAK C BET RL+ -105 --- WIN
    April 8: NO PLAY

    SYSTEM #3


    This system we will look for teams that have lost 3 games SU and against the RL (lose by 2 or more runs). We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL. Recoup over 10 series

    2021
    System to Date: 2-1
    (finished series)
    System Profit/Loss: -8.5U (finished series)
    Current Open Series: 2

    G1 - (A) 0-3
    G2 - (B) 2-1
    G3 - (C) 0-1

    April 5 : OAK B BET RL+ --- LOSS
    April 6 : OAK C BET RL+ -112 --- LOSS
    April 7: NO PLAY
    April 8: MIA A BET RL+ -125 ADD 1.05 UNITS to recoup OAK
    April 8: PITT A BET RL+-130 ADD 1.05 UNITS to recoup OAK


  24. #24
    sunshine11
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    Quote Originally Posted by MexMamba View Post
    I follow 2 systems home opener and this one
    In less than a week we are already down around 60 units...i dont know your bankroll but for me 60 units its about 120% of my bankroll
    That's gambling. No sure things except death and taxes.

  25. #25
    spankmythighs
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    Quote Originally Posted by sunshine11 View Post
    That's gambling. No sure things except death and taxes.
    Agreed. Mitigating losses comes with strict money management and treating these systems as a marathon not a sprint. That OAK loss certainly sucks but it was a 10 unit loss on my books

  26. #26
    spankmythighs
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    SYSTEM #2

    This system we will look for teams that have lost 4 games SU and against the RL (lose by 2 or more runs). We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL

    2021 System to Date: 3-0 (finished series)
    System Profit/Loss: 3U (finished series)
    Current Open Series: 0

    G1 - (A) 2-1
    G2 - (B) 1
    -1
    G3 - (C)
    0-0

    April 4 : OAK A BET RL+ --- LOST
    April 5 : OAK B BET RL+
    --- LOST
    April 5: BOS A BET RL+ --- WIN
    April 6 : MIL A BET RL+ -190 --- WIN
    April 6 : OAK B BET RL+ -112 ---LOSS
    April 7: OAK C BET RL+ -105 --- WIN
    April 8: NO PLAY
    April 9: NO PLAY

    SYSTEM #3


    This system we will look for teams that have lost 3 games SU and against the RL (lose by 2 or more runs). We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL. Recoup over 10 series

    2021
    System to Date: 3-1
    (finished series)
    System Profit/Loss: -6.5U (finished series)
    Current Open Series: 1

    G1 - (A) 1-4
    G2 - (B) 2-1
    G3 - (C) 0-1

    April 5 : OAK B BET RL+ --- LOSS
    April 6 : OAK C BET RL+ -112 --- LOSS
    April 7: NO PLAY
    April 8: MIA A BET RL+ -125 ADD 1.05 UNITS to recoup OAK --- WIN
    April 8: PITT A BET RL+-130 ADD 1.05 UNITS to recoup OAK --- LOSS
    April 9: NO PLAY

  27. #27
    spankmythighs
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    SYSTEM #2

    This system we will look for teams that have lost 4 games SU and against the RL (lose by 2 or more runs). We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL

    2021 System to Date: 3-0 (finished series)
    System Profit/Loss: 3U (finished series)
    Current Open Series: 1

    G1 - (A) 2-1
    G2 - (B) 1
    -1
    G3 - (C)
    0-0

    April 4 : OAK A BET RL+ --- LOST
    April 5 : OAK B BET RL+
    --- LOST
    April 5: BOS A BET RL+ --- WIN
    April 6 : MIL A BET RL+ -190 --- WIN
    April 6 : OAK B BET RL+ -112 ---LOSS
    April 7: OAK C BET RL+ -105 --- WIN
    April 8: NO PLAY
    April 9: NO PLAY
    April 10: PIT A BET RL+ 120

    SYSTEM #3


    This system we will look for teams that have lost 3 games SU and against the RL (lose by 2 or more runs). We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL. Recoup over 10 series

    2021
    System to Date: 3-1
    (finished series)
    System Profit/Loss: -6.5U (finished series)
    Current Open Series: 1

    G1 - (A) 1-4
    G2 - (B) 2-1
    G3 - (C) 0-1

    April 5 : OAK B BET RL+ --- LOSS
    April 6 : OAK C BET RL+ -112 --- LOSS
    April 7: NO PLAY
    April 8: MIA A BET RL+ -125 ADD 1.05 UNITS to recoup OAK --- WIN
    April 8: PITT A BET RL+-130 ADD 1.05 UNITS to recoup OAK --- LOSS
    April 9: NO PLAY
    April 10: PIT B BET RL+ -120

  28. #28
    spankmythighs
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    Potential D-Backs play tomorrow too

  29. #29
    md3324
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    If anyone cares...Iíve been starting my plays after 2 losses. Here are the splits...

    A: 14-6
    B: 4-2
    C: 0-1

  30. #30
    spankmythighs
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    Quote Originally Posted by md3324 View Post
    If anyone cares...Iíve been starting my plays after 2 losses. Here are the splits...

    A: 14-6
    B: 4-2
    C: 0-1
    MD I would dabble with 2 losses by 2 or more for teams that are .500 or better 👍

  31. #31
    imotiv8
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    Quote Originally Posted by spankmythighs View Post
    MD I would dabble with 2 losses by 2 or more for teams that are .500 or better 👍
    I think this is actually profitable. Why donít we track these plays too?

  32. #32
    md3324
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    I just found this thread this year and saw the splits from last year. A and B games won at a 2-1 rate and C games hit less then 50% of the time...so I figured Iíd start after two games. Iíd get more plays and B and C games should hit at a 2-1 rate. 🤷🏼*♂️ I donít wanna clog the thread but I could post the plays if people want them.

  33. #33
    spankmythighs
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    Quote Originally Posted by md3324 View Post
    I just found this thread this year and saw the splits from last year. A and B games won at a 2-1 rate and C games hit less then 50% of the time...so I figured Iíd start after two games. Iíd get more plays and B and C games should hit at a 2-1 rate. 🤷🏼*♂️ I donít wanna clog the thread but I could post the plays if people want them.
    MD I will add that in but only for teams .500 or better. Everyone in aggreance there? I will start this tomorrow

  34. #34
    spankmythighs
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    Pirates are also an A bet on System #2. My bad there

  35. #35
    spankmythighs
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    Quote Originally Posted by spankmythighs View Post
    Pirates are also an A bet on System #2. My bad there
    Lmao nevermind I had it. I'm losing it 😜

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