MLB Series Preview: Braves, Mets at Citi Field
The Mets and Braves are just 1.5 games apart in the NL East and both chasing the Phillies. Atlanta and New York battle each other this weekend, concluding with Sunday night's ESPN contest.
The 2010 MLB regular season is already 10 percent over. Is it too early to speculate? Never.
The National League East Division looks like it belongs once again to the Philadelphia Phillies at 10-5 (2.67 units) with a run differential of plus-35. The competition has some catching up to do. The Atlanta Braves (8-7, -0.50 units) are spinning their wheels, dead even in scoring this year at 67-67, while the New York Mets (7-9, -2.76 units) are last in the division despite outscoring opponents 66-61.
The Braves just got finished dropping two of three games to the Phillies, and it’ll be the back end of their rotation going up against the Mets for a three-game set starting Friday night at Citi Field.
New York is breathing a little more easily after taking three of four from the Chicago Cubs. And the Mets will be happy to begin this series with their No. 2 starter – at least they would be if he weren’t pitching so poorly.
Kenshin Kawakami (-130) vs. John Maine (+120, 8½)
Friday - 7:10 p.m. (ET)
Maine (0.6 WAR last year) showed such promise in his first full season in the majors back in 2007, posting a profit of 4.81 betting units on a team record of 20-12. But Maine had rotator cuff problems in 2008 and needed surgery to remove bone spurs. He’s yet to pitch at the same level, and 2010 is off to a horrible start with three straight losses, allowing 15 earned runs in only 13 innings.
The Mets also lost Maine’s first three starts last year before he found his groove, so not all hope is lost.
Kawakami had a useful 1.7 WAR in his “rookie” season with the Braves – he was a star pitcher for the Chunichi Dragons and turns 35 in June. But Atlanta had some trouble scoring last year and went just 12-13 behind Kawakami for a loss of 0.83 units. The Braves lost his first two starts this year by a combined score of 10-3. Kawakami gets the benefit of the doubt with the visiting Braves pegged at -135 on Friday’s betting odds.
Jair Jurrjens vs. Jonathon Niese
Saturday - 1:10 p.m. (ET)
While the Braves have fallen out of the national spotlight that comes with winning the division every year, Jurrjens has quietly put together two strong seasons for Atlanta, providing 3.8 WAR in 2008 and another 3.9 WAR in 2009. But he hurt his shoulder during the offseason and has been inconsistent in three starts: two good, one horrible in a 17-2 loss to the San Diego Padres.
Niese is an interesting rookie southpaw for the Mets with four pitches in his repertoire, good control, and a 4.18 xFIP in five starts for the parent club last year. He blanked the Cubs over 5.2 innings on Monday to get his first win of the season in three attempts and improve his xFIP to 4.67. The Mets are only hitting a .667 OPS as a team, so Niese might need another one of those performances (preferably deeper into the late innings) if he’s going to get paid Saturday.
Tommy Hanson vs. Mike Pelfrey
Sunday - 8:05 p.m. (ET) ESPN
Atlanta elevated Hanson to the big leagues in 2009, and he delivered with a 2.6 WAR in 21 starts and 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Again, though, the Braves left him hanging out to dry.
The 'under' went 13-8 while the team earned a measly 0.47 units on a record of 12-9. This year Hanson has allowed just five runs in 16 innings and the Braves have won two of his three starts. His high pitch counts and eight bases on balls are a bit troubling looking forward.
Pelfrey (1.8 WAR last year) was a breakthrough hero for the Mets in 2008, but he regressed in 2009 and saw his BABIP increase from .302 to .321. That’s some bad luck right there. It’s been very good luck so far in 2010 with a BABIP of .231 and three wins in three starts. Pelfrey supporters have 3.79 units in the bank after he threw seven scoreless innings against both the Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals. Can’t ask for much more than that.
The Mets and Braves are just 1.5 games apart in the NL East and both chasing the Phillies. Atlanta and New York battle each other this weekend, concluding with Sunday night's ESPN contest.
The 2010 MLB regular season is already 10 percent over. Is it too early to speculate? Never.
The National League East Division looks like it belongs once again to the Philadelphia Phillies at 10-5 (2.67 units) with a run differential of plus-35. The competition has some catching up to do. The Atlanta Braves (8-7, -0.50 units) are spinning their wheels, dead even in scoring this year at 67-67, while the New York Mets (7-9, -2.76 units) are last in the division despite outscoring opponents 66-61.
The Braves just got finished dropping two of three games to the Phillies, and it’ll be the back end of their rotation going up against the Mets for a three-game set starting Friday night at Citi Field.
New York is breathing a little more easily after taking three of four from the Chicago Cubs. And the Mets will be happy to begin this series with their No. 2 starter – at least they would be if he weren’t pitching so poorly.
Kenshin Kawakami (-130) vs. John Maine (+120, 8½)
Friday - 7:10 p.m. (ET)
Maine (0.6 WAR last year) showed such promise in his first full season in the majors back in 2007, posting a profit of 4.81 betting units on a team record of 20-12. But Maine had rotator cuff problems in 2008 and needed surgery to remove bone spurs. He’s yet to pitch at the same level, and 2010 is off to a horrible start with three straight losses, allowing 15 earned runs in only 13 innings.
The Mets also lost Maine’s first three starts last year before he found his groove, so not all hope is lost.
Kawakami had a useful 1.7 WAR in his “rookie” season with the Braves – he was a star pitcher for the Chunichi Dragons and turns 35 in June. But Atlanta had some trouble scoring last year and went just 12-13 behind Kawakami for a loss of 0.83 units. The Braves lost his first two starts this year by a combined score of 10-3. Kawakami gets the benefit of the doubt with the visiting Braves pegged at -135 on Friday’s betting odds.
Jair Jurrjens vs. Jonathon Niese
Saturday - 1:10 p.m. (ET)
While the Braves have fallen out of the national spotlight that comes with winning the division every year, Jurrjens has quietly put together two strong seasons for Atlanta, providing 3.8 WAR in 2008 and another 3.9 WAR in 2009. But he hurt his shoulder during the offseason and has been inconsistent in three starts: two good, one horrible in a 17-2 loss to the San Diego Padres.
Niese is an interesting rookie southpaw for the Mets with four pitches in his repertoire, good control, and a 4.18 xFIP in five starts for the parent club last year. He blanked the Cubs over 5.2 innings on Monday to get his first win of the season in three attempts and improve his xFIP to 4.67. The Mets are only hitting a .667 OPS as a team, so Niese might need another one of those performances (preferably deeper into the late innings) if he’s going to get paid Saturday.
Tommy Hanson vs. Mike Pelfrey
Sunday - 8:05 p.m. (ET) ESPN
Atlanta elevated Hanson to the big leagues in 2009, and he delivered with a 2.6 WAR in 21 starts and 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Again, though, the Braves left him hanging out to dry.
The 'under' went 13-8 while the team earned a measly 0.47 units on a record of 12-9. This year Hanson has allowed just five runs in 16 innings and the Braves have won two of his three starts. His high pitch counts and eight bases on balls are a bit troubling looking forward.
Pelfrey (1.8 WAR last year) was a breakthrough hero for the Mets in 2008, but he regressed in 2009 and saw his BABIP increase from .302 to .321. That’s some bad luck right there. It’s been very good luck so far in 2010 with a BABIP of .231 and three wins in three starts. Pelfrey supporters have 3.79 units in the bank after he threw seven scoreless innings against both the Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals. Can’t ask for much more than that.