Is this +EV ( Or am I fooling myself )

[nobs]

I have already bet it, because I think its +EV


Mariners ML -180
Orioles + 1 1/2 -120


Mariners ML $990 to win $550
Orioles + 1 1/2 $840 to win $700

So that means the risk is $290 to win $1250 which comes out to better than +400, its actually almost +440.

I dont know what is the percentage of time a home team wins by exactly 1 when the total is 7, but I am thinking its got to be at least 20%. That in itself would make this +EV because at +440 you only need about 18%.

I doubt this game even sees the 7. I would say closer to a 2-1, 3-1, or 3-2 game. Cant bet a game under 7, but if I had to play the total it would be under not over.

Two crap offenses, two good pitchers, two good bullpens who didnt get used much in last nights 3-1 final.

If this game gets to the 6th or 7th tied or as a one run game, I say it becomes like a 50/50 shot of hitting this, and I think a 0-0 or 1-1 game into the 6th is very likely.

I already bet it, just not for as much as the numbers I used above for illustration. Still I have it at about $145 to win $625.

Dont have to worry about rain out here either, Seattle has roof.

So am I crazy, or is this +EV.

[rfr3sh]

answer your other thread

[nobs]

The one about Baltimore game. I did. They didnt really ask a question, just said they dont agree with me.

[rfr3sh]

no the one about you almost losing everything!

[nobs]

This may not be +EV ( I think it is ), but anyway I have a feeling that this is going to hit.

Mariners 3
Orioles 2

Final/ 12

[nobs]

That play won by 4 points.

Thats the beauty of this play. I cant lose everything.

[rm18]

+EV

[nobs]

I agree RM18.

Should be a very low scoring game.

To me a +440 is for a total of 11, not a total of 7

[whatsgood5]

Seems like a very smart play to me.

[poker_dummy101]

i guess you plan on not eating for two weeks if this loses?

i guess it'll take you to hit rock bottom before you realize to stop

[nobs]

Cant lose both

[big joe 1212]

guy is a joke!

[wtf]

did you pay your rent or not?

[big joe 1212]

did you pay your rent or not?

of course he didnt!

not a surprise!

[sharpcat]

Home team favs win at home by exactly 1 point in the range of 30% of the time I believe Long term this play seems to have expected value.

Note: long term which means that you would have to make this similar play repeatedly, just because a play has +EV does not justify unloading your bankroll on it. You are in the range of having a 30% chance of winning this bet roughly which is not the type of bet I would risk half of my bankroll on.

[KingKolzig]

this is not a bad bet at all. seattle wins a lot of close home games. i wouldnt recommend doing it all the time but i wonder what the odds would be of a 1 run game after 6 innings here. Maybe +225.........and if its close late i cant see a towering 2 run shot (at safeco) for seattle to win it. it would be a manufactured run. not a bad bet at all

[nobs]

Home team favs win at home by exactly 1 point in the range of 30% of the time I believe Long term this play seems to have expected value.

Note: long term which means that you would have to make this similar play repeatedly, just because a play has +EV does not justify unloading your bankroll on it. You are in the range of having a 30% chance of winning this bet roughly which is not the type of bet I would risk half of my bankroll on.

Your not actually risking half your bankroll. One play is guaranteed to win.

[tltaylor89]

This is a -EV play because you have bills to pay.

[in2thethickofit]

I don't get it. Last night you had this BIG-ASS THREAD about how you could lose it all and had lots of guys pulling for you (myself included). Then you win the under in the Lakers game last night (1st half) and you can't even explain to all those pulling for you what happened...WTF, that is FUKED UP, man!

How does this story end from the other thread?

[FreeFall]

you wanna explain how your risk is $290? And no it's not.

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

Freefall 290 is the maximum amount he stands to loose if only 1 event covers.

[DrStale]

You deserve to lose everything. Truth.

[Rich Boy]

This is -EV, your fooling yourself if you think you can beat the books with a bogus scheme like this...

Dont forget, this guy is a STIFF

[FreeFall]

Freefall 290 is the maximum amount he stands to loose if only 1 event covers.

Thanks, I'm used to at risk be everything at risk for the current position(s).

[tltaylor89]

See what happens when to try to scheme.

[BeatTheJerk]

What a fvcking sick loser degenerate bastard. Imagine if this guy had decent sized BR. unreal .................

[Domestic]

This guy is either an idiot or a liar. Unbelievable.

[milwaukee mike]

i also want to know if the rent and other bills got paid

when you risk everything to get out of a hole and WIN i think you should consider it a sign, get out of the hole and don't do it again

[coloradobuff]

i need a smoke after that post

[milwaukee mike]

lol colorado
ok in some instances if it is a nice hole you might want to get back in it

[EaglesPhan36]

So you lost $290. Congratulations.