2010 MLB Season Thread: 100+ units or bust!

[snapstick]

I decided to start a new thread for ONLY the Projected Money Line Plays. At the request of others i will post the rules and of these plays in this thread. You may want to pay attention to these plays as last season i played them for about 2/3 of the season and finished close to +150 units wagering 1 unit per play. Good luck and as i stated these plays will kick off in about a weeek or so.

1. The plays will start on or before May 1st.
2. The plays will conclude at the conclusion of the World Series.
3. The plays will be wagering to win 1 unit (Favs) & risk 1 unit (Dogs)
4. Their may be a few days no plays are posted due to family/personal plans.
5. These plays will, at season's end, have at least a +100 units or more return.
6. I do not cap these games they are played based on projected/current lines.
6. Favorites of -180 or higher are eliminated.
7. Teams that have a losing streak of 2 or more games are eliminated.
8. Their must be at least a 20c differential with the oddsmakers and my line.
9. Starting pitchers must have at least 15-20 innings completed.
10. The plays will be posted 15-30 minutes before gametime of the play.


.

[Jiggy Fly]

Digg It!!

[snapstick]

Jiggy Fly : I'm itching to get these plays started. BOL and keep a eye on these.

[snapstick]

If your wondering why i wait until May to play these Projected Money Line plays it is due to waiting for the season to reach the beginning of a statistical flow which allows reality to replace speculation. It is also easier at that time to determine the lines more accurately. At the beginning of the season the only data you have at your disposal is forecasts, player projections and your opinion of how things may occur based on previous seasons. Their are different websites you can use that give you projection systems for the beginning of the year but i believe waiting until at least May and using the current season stats to derive you own Money Line to compare with the oddsmaker's line is more successful.

[dvb02]

Good luck Snap. I will be keeping an eye on this.

Are the plays going to be listed only 15 minutes prior to each game due to line fluctuations?

[HedBustah1]

Good luck with this!

[snapstick]

Of course each person may have a different value for 1 unit. I will have a starting roll of $5,000 set aside for these plays only and i will be playing $100.00 per unit which is 2% of my roll. At the time i reach my minimum goal of +100 units my roll will increase to $15,000. I may adjust my amount per unit if i have success in the first half of the season but only at that time.

[snapstick]

dvb02 : You are correct dvb. I wait 15-30 minutes before gametime to post and wager on each particular play due to the fluctuation of the lines. I will compare my line not just to one book but i will use a pool of books to get a consensus of the current/actual line. I like to wait close to gametime due to line fluctuations that occur late. Good point and you are right on with your statement.

[dvb02]

dvb02 : You are correct dvb. I wait 15-30 minutes before gametime to post and wager on each particular play due to the fluctuation of the lines. I will compare my line not just to one book but i will use a pool of books to get a consensus of the current/actual line. I like to wait close to gametime due to line fluctuations that occur late. Good point and you are right on with your statement.

ok. Good luck!

[snapstick]

HedBustah1 : Thanks and hop on board. If you are reluctant with wagering on plays from a stranger......Start with a low unit amount. It's never a bad thing to be cautious but as i said i have $5000.00 set aside for these plays and anything less than my expectations above would be a disappointment.

[snapstick]

dvb02 : Thanks and GL to you also bud!

[ahhlenn]

looking forward to your plays. GL snap, let's cash those 100+ units.

[snapstick]

ahhlenn : Also, if you don't want to wager solely on this type of wagering you can use these plays as a great tool to compare with the games/plays you cap. If they agree with the games/plays you cap even better and if they don't then i would make that particular game a no-play. BOL to you bud!

[Panekkkk]

I decided to start a new thread for ONLY the Projected Money Line Plays. At the request of others i will post the rules and of these plays in this thread. You may want to pay attention to these plays as last season i played them for about 2/3 of the season and finished close to +150 units wagering 1 unit per play. Good luck and as i stated these plays will kick off in about a weeek or so.

1. The plays will start on or before May 1st.
2. The plays will conclude at the conclusion of the World Series.
3. The plays will be wagering to win 1 unit (Favs) & risk 1 unit (Dogs)
4. Their may be a few days no plays are posted due to family/personal plans.
5. These plays will, at season's end, have at least a +100 units or more return.
6. I do not cap these games they are played based on projected/current lines.
6. Favorites of -180 or higher are eliminated.
7. Teams that have a losing streak of 2 or more games are eliminated.
8. Their must be at least a 20c differential with the oddsmakers and my line.
9. Starting pitchers must have at least 15-20 innings completed.
10. The plays will be posted 15-30 minutes before gametime of the play.


.

Rule 1 -- I think you mean on or after May 1st, no?

Good luck with this snapstick. It's funny because I have a very similar system that I will be posting shortly that follows many of the same rules. I originally eliminated -180, but now its -160 or higher. I'll start posting shortly. Similarly it was very successful last year and am further building data and refining.

GL

[snapstick]

Panekkkk : No i may start it a few days before May 1st, not sure yet. Last season i used -200 as a max line but i decided to lower the juice a little to -180 or below. Your thread and plays will be a good reference to compare these plays with.

[dvb02]

Snap, any chance you could post the possible plays ahead of time during the day. Just wondering since the games start at so many different times it is hard to check every 30 minutes. Just an idea.

[snapstick]

dvb02 : No, sorry for reasons stated in post #8

[snapstick]

Panekkkk : How did you do as far as +/- units last season with your plays?

[ProfessorGoatduk]

Hey Snap just wondering is capping a full time gig for you?

[snapstick]

ProfessorGoatduk : Yes i am retired...I retired at a young age from an injury so this is one of my hobbies.

[Dexter]

GL Snap......you have me confused with all the threads, but whatever...lol

[mlb]

Looking forward to your plays in this thread ... whenever I see one of your posts I always take the time to read it .. good luck man

[snapstick]

Dexter : lol, thanks Dext. Yeah i know...as soon as i start these plays in this thread the other two threads will go bye bye..Hopefully i can hit 10 in a row in my other thread before that time. Thanks for stopping by...Your comments are always well educated and always appreciated.

[snapstick]

mlb : Thanks bud! I hope to make great progress with this thread this season.

[jolmscheid]

Lets go snap! I have been followng you and will continue to do so!

[jolmscheid]

I may have asked already, but do you cap ALL sports??

[snapstick]

jolmscheid : I cap NCAAB, NBA, MLB, NCAAF and NFL. MLB and NCAAF prolly my best as far as + units.

[snapstick]

At the time these plays start this thread will be burried somewhere in page 20 of the baseball forum...prolly take me an hour to find the damn thing!

[dvb02]

At the time these plays start this thread will be burried somewhere in page 20 of the baseball forum...prolly take me an hour to find the damn thing!

Do what I do. Subscribe to it!

[snapstick]

dvb02 : How do you do that...Sorry if i sound un-educated...

[mlb]

How do you do that? Sorry if i sound un-educated...

haha dont worry .. I have never heard of that either so I'm interested to learn as well

[TheCommish]

How do you do that? Sorry if i sound un-educated...

At the top of the thread, there is a small drop down menu labeled "Thread Tools". Click on that and select "Subsribe to this Thread". This will then present you with the option to have thread updates emailed to you.

Alternatively, if you just want to be able to find the thread easily, simply bookmark it in your browser.

Best of luck to you this season.

Cheers

[snapstick]

TheCommish : Thanks Bud!

[snapstick]

mlb :

[snapstick]

Just so you know this will be my ONLY thread for the entire MLB season through the World Series.. I have another thread but that will end after tonights action. I will be preparing my info and software for the plays in this thread over the next week or so. I am ready for another big season with these plays!