Flawed thinking in baseball handicapping: loading up on slumping team to bust out

[Dirty Bay Player]

I was checking out the thread where Tennis Babe promised to never return if the Red Sox didn't beat the Rays today (the Rays won 8-2).

I don't understand why so many baseball handicappers get this sudden determination that a slumping team is going to bust out and win a single, particular game. It's like the guy at the roulette wheel (the worst possible odds at a casino, btw) who has seen that red hit 20 times in a row, so he loads up huge on black. Guess what bro - the odds that it's going to hit red again are just as good as it hitting black.

I haven't publicly posted my picks and I'm not claiming to have cracked the system. But I think that betting on a heavily favored team to break out of a slump, and loading up on it - it's got to be one of the worst possible values. Those "must win" games to salvage series or right the ship - they seem like the best possible time to either stay away, or take the other side.

[THE PROFIT]

I agree

[reverend]

well said

[bigsmitty]

I was checking out the thread where Tennis Babe promised to never return if the Red Sox didn't beat the Rays today (the Rays won 8-2).

I don't understand why so many baseball handicappers get this sudden determination that a slumping team is going to bust out and win a single, particular game. It's like the guy at the roulette wheel (the worst possible odds at a casino, btw) who has seen that red hit 20 times in a row, so he loads up huge on black. Guess what bro - the odds that it's going to hit red again are just as good as it hitting black.

I haven't publicly posted my picks and I'm not claiming to have cracked the system. But I think that betting on a heavily favored team to break out of a slump, and loading up on it - it's got to be one of the worst possible values. Those "must win" games to salvage series or right the ship - they seem like the best possible time to either stay away, or take the other side.

Well said sir, as I posted in other threads I'm not really an MLB person but I saw the line for the Sox/Rays game and ran the stats, figured that's a great ROI if I go with a reasonable amount. So it paid out and I've also used it in a parlay with the NHL and NBA today-if they work great but if not I'm cool too. It seems the basic thing is that it can be difficult to step aside, look at the numbers and be objective-which I was able to do with the Rays but not as easy with hockey when most of me said Wsh vs Mon-of course they'll destroy them. Anyways, give me your thoughts on other games as I like your wagering thoughts. Cheerio

[bigsmitty]

Well said sir, as I posted in other threads I'm not really an MLB person but I saw the line for the Sox/Rays game and ran the stats, figured that's a great ROI if I go with a reasonable amount. So it paid out and I've also used it in a parlay with the NHL and NBA today-if they work great but if not I'm cool too. It seems the basic thing is that it can be difficult to step aside, look at the numbers and be objective-which I was able to do with the Rays but not as easy with hockey when most of me said Wsh vs Mon-of course they'll destroy them. Anyways, give me your thoughts on other games as I like your wagering thoughts. Cheerio

I wonder what ever happened with that TennisBabe person-kind of Axl Roseish but I'm just about sharing wagering ideas. GL everyone

[cb8720]

You're absolutely right. I hope I learned a valuable lesson today making my biggest bet of the baseball season on Boston. Terrible decision.

[Dirty Bay Player]

I don't think there is a gambler alive who hasn't loaded up huge on a good team to break out of a slump. You get sucked in because the lines are lower than they usually are, and you reason that you are getting a great value on a great team that has just been artificially down. It's so easy to talk yourself into all the reasons why THIS is the game that Youklis is going to have a multi-homer afternoon, or why THIS is the day that the pitcher is going to throw the game of his life. I've made this mistake so many times myself (especially when chasing). I'm not sure that it's as simple as just learning a lesson. But I am seriously trying to avoid betting on the fav in these types of games anymore.

[Rbyrne]

Lackey got rocked last time he faced the Rays last year when he was with the Angels....but everyone wanted to look at Lackeys overall 9-2 record against them...which was a result of him being on a much better team and the rays not being as good as they are now......duh....Lackey throws fastballs against a team that loves to hit them....he doesnt even have a over powering fastball...so there should be no suprise here

[Bluemonk]

I was checking out the thread where Tennis Babe promised to never return if the Red Sox didn't beat the Rays today (the Rays won 8-2).

I don't understand why so many baseball handicappers get this sudden determination that a slumping team is going to bust out and win a single, particular game. It's like the guy at the roulette wheel (the worst possible odds at a casino, btw) who has seen that red hit 20 times in a row, so he loads up huge on black. Guess what bro - the odds that it's going to hit red again are just as good as it hitting black.

I haven't publicly posted my picks and I'm not claiming to have cracked the system. But I think that betting on a heavily favored team to break out of a slump, and loading up on it - it's got to be one of the worst possible values. Those "must win" games to salvage series or right the ship - they seem like the best possible time to either stay away, or take the other side.

Sorry but this post loses all credibility when its posted after the game has been played. If you felt this way why not post it before the game starts?

[Dirty Bay Player]

The post has the disclaimer that I'm not pretending to have a better angle. I didn't discover the the thread until the game had already started. Yes - armchair quarterback here. But that doesn't change the substance of the post- which is that it seems to be a very detrimental approach (especially when chasing) to load up on slumping fav's. How does the outcome of a single game corrupt the credibility of what is simply an observation based on many times personally getting burned doing exactly the same thing that I am criticizing. Go whine about credibility somewhere else - it doesn't apply to this thread if you actually read it.

[Bluemonk]

All I'm saying is that I don't see you making this post if the Red Sox win today.

[CappinTerp]

Baseball handycapping 101 - Never bet on a hot team to loose or a cold team to win.!

[dbldown]

Well said.

[mlb]

Baseball handycapping 101 - Never bet on a hot team to loose or a cold team to win.!

was waiting for you to chime in. --- Remembered what you have been saying about that and it made me like Tampa more and more

[Dirty Bay Player]

Fair enough - I probably wouldn't have made the post if the Sox had won. The fact that they lost and so many people were so certain ... it just reminded me of all the times that I've been on that side, and how stupid I always feel for getting so convinced that this was the game that a certain team was going to 'snap out of it' (which is really stupid thinking, I'm starting to realize).

[mlb]

Fair enough - I probably wouldn't have made the post if the Sox had won. The fact that they lost and so many people were so certain ... it just reminded me of all the times that I've been on that side, and how stupid I always feel for getting so convinced that this was the game that a certain team was going to 'snap out of it' (which is really stupid thinking, I'm starting to realize).

It's ok we are all learning .. now don't make that mistake again

[bigsmitty]

It's ok we are all learning .. now don't make that mistake again

I agreed with your reasoning and all, as well as making my picks while I ran with my dogs-do I get a half a SBR point? Haha, jk-where's your hockey and nba picks. I'm a relative newbie to the indepthedness of the sports wagering, but I do quite well. If I lay out my philosophy can I get some feedback, as well if anyone knows the guidelines for suggesting your own sports site (not gaming just jerseys) can they point me in the right direction. Cheerio all.

[Dirty Bay Player]

First time I'd ever assigned a point to someone - I didn't even know what it was / what it was for and was just trying it. Talk about no credibility - giving a point to someone for giving my post a nice comment.

[polsefest]

roulette really has the worst odds?

[Dirty Bay Player]

Check out the "house edge" chart that's halfway down the page on the right side. I don't know if this is a reputable site - but I have repeatedly heard that Roulette is one of the worst table games in the house, at a >5% house edge. Obviously there are ways you can play other house games that woudl give you worse than a 5% disadvantage, but relative to the payouts, Roulette is one of the worst (I wasn't counting the 'wheel of fortune' or 'keno' - because I figured that anyone that plays those has already become unable to pay for their Internet connection and wouldn't be able to see my post anyway).