A Score in the First Inning Stats....

JerseyShop101 · 04-20-10, 08:06 PM

Originally posted by terrortwylight

i cashed on NO w/ cubs!!

what do you mean by top 7 is 5-1?

The 7 highest percentages on the chart for Yes:

Pitt - Yes
Texas - Yes
Phillly - No
Cleve - Yes
Arizona - Later
Boston - Yes
Florida - Yes

JerseyShop101 · 04-20-10, 08:13 PM

Terror, Great hit with the Cubs, 5 o's in a row for them and the Mets now.

terrortwylight · 04-20-10, 08:32 PM

Originally posted by JerseyShop101

The 7 highest percentages on the chart for Yes:

Pitt - Yes
Texas - Yes
Phillly - No
Cleve - Yes
Arizona - Later
Boston - Yes
Florida - Yes

ohhhhhhh i see.. sorry.

man, you're for real for real about this. i love it. this seems like a pretty legit way to win some wagers!

terrortwylight · 04-20-10, 08:35 PM

yankees/a's NO looks pretty smart.. 2 teams in the bottom area of the chart..

i might just watch this one and see what happens to get a feel for it some more. already cashed on cubs so i'll take the profit.

can't wait to see how this plays out, jersey!

JerseyShop101 · 04-21-10, 02:29 AM

Updated thru Tuesday's night games:

Current trends/streaks:

"Yes - A Score in the 1st Inn prop"
Rangers tied with the best "Yes - A Score in the 1st Inn prop" record at 10-3 (77%), are 8-2 (80%) for the "Yes" in their last 10.

Pirates still at the top tied with Texas for the "Yes", are 7-2 (78%) in their last 9.

Indians are 7-2 (78%) in their last 9 with the "Yes" prop and its won 3 in a row.

Diamondbacks are now 7-3 (70%) in their last 10 for the "Yes" and its won 4 in a row.

"No Score in the 1st Inn prop"
Cubs are now 11-3 (79%) with the "No Score 1st Inn" prop, its now won 5 straight and is 8-1 (89%) in their last 9.

Angels are 6-1 (86%) in their last 7 for the "No Score 1st Inn" prop and its won 3 in a row.

Mets are 6-1 (86%) in their last 7 for the "No Score 1st Inn" prop and its won 5 in a row.

Blue Jays are 7-2 (78%) in their last 9 for the "No".

Tigers are 6-2 (75%) in their last 8 for the "No Score 1st Inn" prop and its won 3 in a row.

THE PROFIT · 04-21-10, 02:54 AM

I think i will just play those listed above again tomorrow, what do you think?

tavinator13 · 04-21-10, 03:05 AM

This is very interesting, will you be tracking it all year?

THE PROFIT · 04-21-10, 03:21 AM

so DET/LAA and CHC/NYM are STRONG no plays for wednesday

THE PROFIT · 04-21-10, 03:34 AM

Hey jersey, what if you also did a sheet on SP that allow & dont allow, and use it in conjunction to make an even stronger case for the play??? I'll be glad to shoot you some points for your work when I get some built up. I've been so busy at gametime getting plays in I've forgot to bet points the last couple days LoL!!!

Shortstop · 04-21-10, 04:52 AM

Pittsburgh was another easy winner with the Brewers plating 3 in the top of the 1st...

JerseyShop101 · 04-21-10, 05:17 AM

Tavinator, Not sure about all year, but I'll keep it going for as long as possible, I'll be doing some traveling in the summer.

The Profit, those 2 plays look solid. As far as tracking the SP's, not sure if I have the time to do that, but I'll see what I can do. I've been more interested lately in batter vs. hitter matchups, mainly because I hit my last 3, lol. I made a thread on the Dodgers -123 with Kuroda vs the Reds. I like that play a lot tonight.

JerseyShop101 · 04-21-10, 05:30 AM

Originally posted by Shortstop

Pittsburgh was another easy winner with the Brewers plating 3 in the top of the 1st...

In the 7 games at Pittsburgh, the Yes is 6-1.

I am going to put togehter a chart showing just the ball parks to see how they fared so far with this prop..

JerseyShop101 · 04-21-10, 07:27 AM

Ok, this is by Ballpark. Maybe we can see an edge in the hitter and non-hitter ballparks.

Thru Tuesday there have been 208 games played. The prop "A Score in the 1st inning Yes" has hit in 99 of them. 99-109 (48%).

I want to see if we can match up good "Yes" teams with good parks for the "Yes" prop. And good "No" teams with good ballparks for the "No" prop.

Wrigley · 04-21-10, 07:29 AM

thanks for tracking

IrishTim · 04-21-10, 07:58 AM

Just noticed this, good thread. You wouldn't happen to have info on previous years would you? PMs work if necessary.

therber2 · 04-21-10, 08:37 AM

Originally posted by JerseyShop101

Ok, this is by Ballpark. Maybe we can see an edge in the hitter and non-hitter ballparks.

Thru Tuesday there have been 208 games played. The prop "A Score in the 1st inning Yes" has hit in 99 of them. 99-109 (48%).

I want to see if we can match up good "Yes" teams with good parks for the "Yes" prop. And good "No" teams with good ballparks for the "No" prop.

[ATTACH]11295[/ATTACH]

Well, I see that Rockies and Marlins are low on the list so that tells me that there is not enough data collected. Law of averages: start betting the YES (wind, batting, and pitching conditions allowing) at Marlins and Rockies home stands.

Who else what high on this list last year?

therber2 · 04-21-10, 08:41 AM

Originally posted by JerseyShop101

I think I'll just stick with the chart for you guys, lol....

[ATTACH]11259[/ATTACH]

This chart with the one above WILL be deadly. Please keep this running for a while Jersey.

Need more data though IMO.

JerseyShop101 · 04-21-10, 08:43 AM

Sry Irish, this is a first for me on this.

JerseyShop101 · 04-21-10, 08:47 AM

I agree guys.

I'll keep it going. Here is Wednesday games with the percentages:

Grecdogg · 04-21-10, 09:09 AM

Wow I really like this, but I dont understand the chart so much... I lost alot this year betting NO on the first inning. I just dont think teams should score in the 1st inning against a Major League Pitcher... I really like this thread, keep'er goin! ty

JerseyShop101 · 04-21-10, 09:37 AM

Originally posted by Grecdogg

Wow I really like this, but I dont understand the chart so much... I lost alot this year betting NO on the first inning. I just dont think teams should score in the 1st inning against a Major League Pitcher... I really like this thread, keep'er goin! ty

No worries, if you have a question about the chart please feel free to ask. I used to think the same thing, but you have to remember that the first inning is normally the highest average inning in which a run is scored.And so far this year its 48%.

Grecdogg · 04-21-10, 09:40 AM

Originally posted by JerseyShop101

No worries, if you have a question about the chart please feel free to ask. I used to think the same thing, but you have to remember that the first inning is normally the highest average inning in which a run is scored.And so far this year its 48%.

Gotcha, I read what you wrote about the chart like 5 times and I understand it more now lol Takes me a couple times sometimes lol...

So for the early game today, KC @ TOR, its at 50% and 40% for the NO score. Is that good enough to play?

julio_cat · 04-21-10, 09:48 AM

Thanks for the info. Will try Pirates and Arizona

terrortwylight · 04-21-10, 09:55 AM

strongest NO looks like cubs/mets.. my book has got it @ -125. considering the pitchers and the trends i'd say this is good value!

mvp123 · 04-21-10, 10:01 AM

what about doc and hudson pitching tonite against each other ? is that a good no bet ??

terrortwylight · 04-21-10, 10:02 AM

like profit said, cubs/mets and tigers/angels look nice for NO..

terrortwylight · 04-21-10, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by mvp123

what about doc and hudson pitching tonite against each other ? is that a good no bet ??

that one scares me.. either of those teams can put up some runs in about 2 seconds..

Grecdogg · 04-21-10, 10:18 AM

I see what your saying for the Mets & Cubs, that looks like the best oddss The KC TOR game is Tor 40% & KC 50%. I should stay away, but love early day action!

terrortwylight · 04-21-10, 10:21 AM

Originally posted by Grecdogg

I see what your saying for the Mets & Cubs, that looks like the best oddss The KC TOR game is Tor 40% & KC 50%. I should stay away, but love early day action!

NO seems like the way to go on that bad lad.. my only concern is the KC bats.. but that's just my 2 cents. i'm still trying to learn how this works like everyone else! BOL whatever you decide my friend.

THE PROFIT · 04-21-10, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by JerseyShop101

Updated thru Tuesday's night games:

[ATTACH]11293[/ATTACH]

Current trends/streaks:

"Yes - A Score in the 1st Inn prop"
Rangers tied with the best "Yes - A Score in the 1st Inn prop" record at 10-3 (77%), are 8-2 (80%) for the "Yes" in their last 10.

Pirates still at the top tied with Texas for the "Yes", are 7-2 (78%) in their last 9.

Indians are 7-2 (78%) in their last 9 with the "Yes" prop and its won 3 in a row.

Diamondbacks are now 7-3 (70%) in their last 10 for the "Yes" and its won 4 in a row.

"No Score in the 1st Inn prop"
Cubs are now 11-3 (79%) with the "No Score 1st Inn" prop, its now won 5 straight and is 8-1 (89%) in their last 9.

Angels are 6-1 (86%) in their last 7 for the "No Score 1st Inn" prop and its won 3 in a row.

Mets are 6-1 (86%) in their last 7 for the "No Score 1st Inn" prop and its won 5 in a row.

Blue Jays are 7-2 (78%) in their last 9 for the "No".

Tigers are 6-2 (75%) in their last 8 for the "No Score 1st Inn" prop and its won 3 in a row.

you have cubs & mets on this no list, and they are playing each other.
you have tigers & angels on the no here & they are playing, so those 2 games are worth a medium play IMO

terrortwylight · 04-21-10, 10:30 AM

it's sort of funny how we're all trying to break down and investigate the trends for a PROP bet hahahaha..

i love SBR forum

Grecdogg · 04-21-10, 10:35 AM

Im gonna put a small bet on the NO for the KC TOR game... Wish me luck!
thanks Terror

Grecdogg · 04-21-10, 11:17 AM

Im on the NO for the KC TOR game, got it at -145

terrortwylight · 04-21-10, 11:18 AM

GL grecdogg, i'm pulling for ya!

THE PROFIT · 04-21-10, 11:20 AM

Originally posted by terrortwylight

it's sort of funny how we're all trying to break down and investigate the trends for a PROP bet hahahaha..

i love SBR forum

I consider this a little better than a prop, because you can play it every game & actually have an edge. Nothing like cashing big in the 1st 5 minutes of the game