Just Another Guy Sharing His Picks

[DuncHen22]

I have made it safely through the first week of bases. I decided to start my own thread to try and keep myself honest and not get greedy. Plus, if I’m doing well you can tail me (or you can fade me if I start to do poorly).
I don’t have a set system, but I have some ground rules I try to follow:

-Play ML only (no RL, props, or totals)
-Only play home teams unlikely to be swept.
-Once a home team has won, do not play them again in that series.
-Chases are allowed but only if it’s safe.
-Don’t play against the Mariners (conflict of interest)

That’s basically it. It’s based off the no-home-sweep system () but I’m not adhering to the normal chase rules. Sometimes I'll chase to win a unit, other times I may chase to break even. Or I may not chase at all. For example, I took the Brewers to beat the Cards yesterday and lost, but I didn't chasing after that one because the Cards are on fire and Carpenter was pitching today (though in hindsight it would've been a good chase) .

I have already broken some of the rules , and they are the reasons why I’ve lost a few games. I took the Dodgers on the road and they lost. But I decided to chase them to break even and it paid off. I played the White Sox at home after they already won a game and lost (I chased that loss to break even with Detroit the next day). I played the Brewers yesterday and lost even though they were on my “sweepable” list . I tried to chase that one to break even with a D-Backs RL bet (yet another violation) and lost .

Had I stuck to my original ground rules, I'd be 9-0 (+9.0 units) with no chases so far). So that's good news but also frustrating to see where I should be.

So I’m hoping to stop trying to be greedy and just stick to my rules. That’s why I started this thread; in hopes it keeps me honest.

Normally, I’ll list all my potential plays in order of confidence and then post the ones I will be playing. I don’t play every team that falls into the guidelines because I don’t like risking too much at one time (especially if I need to chase).

One unit = 5% of my starting bankroll.

P.S. Sorry about all the emoticons. I just think they're funny.

[HoulihansTX]

GL. I know you well be making some money. Seems as though you have a plan.


Those Mariners are 2-5. Cliff Lee needs to get his bum ass off the DL

[DuncHen22]

GL. I know you well be making some money. Seems as though you have a plan. Those Mariners are 2-5. Cliff Lee needs to get his bum ass off the DL

Thanks, and you're right about Lee. They definitely need his solid pitching, especially if they continue to refuse to score.

[DuncHen22]

Okay, so some playable games for tomorrow:
Marlins -150
Giants -171
Tigers -186
Twins +136

-Obviously the Cards and Phillies fall into my system but their lines are just a bit too high for me. (-260 and -215, respectively)
-I like the Marlins play the best so far. The Giants and Tigers are a bit pricey but it may be worth it.
-I like the Twins to win one against Boston but I'm going to look into tomorrow's game more to see if they can beat Lester (and hopefully Pavano can pitch well).

[Edge29]

Sounds like we've got similar philosophies, DuncHen. I'll be keeping track, I wouldn't be surprised if we're on a few of the same plays. The thing I try to consider on top of looking at home sweep type stuff is the kind of odds we're looking at. If a home favorite is giving up huge odds (essentially saying I think they're overvalued) then I'll probably lay off. Like you I also won't chase "just because that's the system." If I go a couple of games of chasing and don't fee comfortable with continuing to push it, I'll cut my losses and move on. It just isn't worth it. Just because a team lost twice in a row doesn't mean they'll automatically win the next one.

Anyway, don't know why I thought I should share all of this here. Feel free to disregard. I'll be keeping up with you, though.

[DuncHen22]

Okay, lines are moving fast so I jumped in:

Marlins -148 (to win 1 unit)
Tigers -185 (to win 1 unit)
Twins +136 (to win 1.36 units)

If those go well I might play the Giants at night but the Pirates are acting very strange lately. But the Giants are good so we'll see.

I decided to go with the Twins because I feel confident they will not be swept by Boston, so even if I have to chase it, I will get a win there. And starting 5-2 all on the road, their fans are gonna be pumped (as will the players). This will be the first regular season game in Target Field.

[DuncHen22]

Sounds like we've got similar philosophies, DuncHen. I'll be keeping track, I wouldn't be surprised if we're on a few of the same plays. The thing I try to consider on top of looking at home sweep type stuff is the kind of odds we're looking at. If a home favorite is giving up huge odds (essentially saying I think they're overvalued) then I'll probably lay off. Like you I also won't chase "just because that's the system." If I go a couple of games of chasing and don't fee comfortable with continuing to push it, I'll cut my losses and move on. It just isn't worth it. Just because a team lost twice in a row doesn't mean they'll automatically win the next one.

Anyway, don't know why I thought I should share all of this here. Feel free to disregard. I'll be keeping up with you, though.

No, that sounds good! It's good to hear others are on the same page as me.

BOL!

[DuncHen22]

FYI, I like keeping track of things so I've been following all the series played.

-So far there have been 30 series played and 3 away sweeps (Houston 2x and Baltimore).
-4 home teams have needed the 3rd game to stay "unswept."
-I like to get a win in with the first 2 games, and so far that has been the case for 77% of the home teams.

This really doesn't mean much but it's fun to track.

[playersonly69]

I am not sure why you dont take runlines. They are definite money makers

[MickChunky]

GL, Marlins look like a good bet tomorrow. I'm really liking Jurrjens on the road over San Diego, even though it's not under your rules.

Nothing wrong with emoticons, it's your thread

[Edge29]

Definitely with you on the Tigers for tomorrow, and I think there's some value in the Twins at the current odds. I guess I have trouble seeing them getting swept in their home opener in a new park, so I'm going to hit that one with you.

I'm also going to jump on St. Louis, despite the odds. I still think it's a solid play. I'm actually an Astros fan, but the way things are going to be this year I'll be leaving a lot of money on the table if I refuse to bet against them, and I can't aford that.

I'm struggling a bit more with Philly, and am considering maybe playing that one at -1 RL (I know, you don't do that, but I think I might anyway. I'll probably hold off on that play until tomorrow, depending on how it looks).

You mentioned the Giants. I feel good about this in this series, and actually feel pretty good about them in game one behind Zito. I'm jumping in there as well.

BOL, let's start the week of with a bang.

[DuncHen22]

Playersonly -I don't like runlines for the same reason I don't like spreads in other sports. Teams don't care about spreads, only the "W".
Maybe some people are good with RLs and spreads but I usually just have better luck with MLs so I usually stick with that.
I sometimes will use spreads for an underdog, but even then you can run into problems.

MickChunky- Jurrjens and the Braves are solid but you're right that it doesn't fit with my rules. Nothing wrong with you taking them though! BOL!

[DuncHen22]

Edge - The Cards are solid and the Astros are terrible, but I just don't like going much over -200 and I'm just worried that the Astros are due for a win here soon (though it's possible they'll be 0-9 after this series). I like the Giants too but I want to try and hit some of these earlier games first before I put anything down for that one, just in case I lose my other games and need to chase them. It's still on the table for me though.

[DuncHen22]

P.S. Regarding the Giants, according to sbrodds.com, the public is slightly favoring the Giants (55/45), but the line is dropping for the Giants (Bookmaker has gone from -200 to -172, Matchbook from -174 to -162). Not sure if you read into those kinds of things but it could mean something.

[Edge29]

Reverse line movement. Probably not a great sign for me, but I still feel pretty good about the Giants here. I agree the Pirates are bit unpredictable, but I just can't see them sweeping this series.

DET/kc underway. Let's start the day right.

[DuncHen22]

Wow, 4 errors by Detroit, which accounted for 4 of KC's runs. I may have to chase after this one tomorrow. We'll see though.

[paco]

Goodluck DH!

[DuncHen22]

Thanks, Paco!

I decided to take the Giants anyway, despite the reverse line movement. Feeling good about Zito tonight.

I want to take the Mariners tonight, but I don't like my chances of a chase if they end up losing. It's still too early to tell what they're gonna be like this year.

[Edge29]

Tough loss for the Tigers. Didn't need to happen, obviously. But I suppose errors are inevitable. I think they're a pretty good chase for tomorrow, but I'm usually fairly liberal with my chases into a 2nd game. It's the 3rd game where I get a lot more conservative and am more likely to just cut my losses.

Let's hope the Twins finish the job in the 9th. Always love a shot at winning with dogs.

[DuncHen22]

I knew it was over for the Marlins when they failed to score in the bottom of the 9th with the bases loaded and 1 out. And the Tigers looked terrible today. I expect both of them to come through for me tomorrow though. I can't see either team being swept.

The Twins made it look easy today, coming through for me in the new stadium.

Giants are looking good so far, up 7-3 in the 7th. Assuming they win I'll be 2-2 today, with 2 chases tomorrow.

-Marlins have Nate Robertson pitching tomorrow. He has one start against the Reds and he pitched 7.1 shutout innings. He went for 5 innings against the Mets in his first start this year, giving up just a run. Reds' Arroyo has started 5 games against the Marlins and has an 0-2 record, giving up 15 ERs. There is some early reverse line movement going on, in favor of the Marlins. I got it at -118, up from -105.

-Dontrelle Willis is pitching for the Tigers. I think he'll be a solid pitcher for them this year and should be good tomorrow. He gave up 2 ERs in his first outing against KC. Line is going up on this one too. I got the Tigers at -133 but some books are already up to -150.

I'm eyeing the Yankees and Rockies tomorrow but I'm going to wait until after the Tigers game is over to decide whether or not I'll play either one.

BOL!

[Edge29]

I'm an idiot. Forgot to click Pittsburg into "action" instead of "listed" when I made the bet and so my bet got cancelled with the pitching change. Rough. I think the Giants still probably take one more in the series, so I'm going to play them as a 2 game chase for a small unit and see whether I can still salvage something from that series.

I'm playing the B bet for the Tigers as well. Didn't play the Marlins with you on Monday though, so get to sit that one out.

I'm playing the Rockies tomorrow but not the Yankees. Yankees in a home opener takes too much juice. The odds I'm seeing (-174) would make them almost a 65% favorite in this one, and I don't think they're really that big of a favorite in this game. If anything, the value is on LAA. Just going to leave it alone.

BOL!

[DuncHen22]

DETROIT!! Wow, what a 7th inning! I knew I could count on KC's 'pen to lose it (just as they have been doing all year). I wasn't overly concerned when it was 3-0, but I was getting a bit nervous at 5-0 in the 7th.

[DuncHen22]

Looking into Marlins for tomorrow. I'll either take my losses now, play a unit, chase to break even, or chase to win a unit. I gotta look into it hard though, because I really thought this series would be an easy outing for the Marlins but obviously not.

[DuncHen22]

Alright, I'm going for the gusto here. Marlins -123 (tw 5u).

[The J Man]

Good luck man.

[DuncHen22]

MARLINS!!

[DuncHen22]

Unless something changes with Oakland tonight, I'll be playing them against Baltimore tomorrow.

4/15
Oakland -150

[dynamitappletini]

thanks for sharing

[DuncHen22]

thanks for sharing

And thanks for the point! BOL!

[DuncHen22]

I really wanted to lay down enough to win 2 units in Oakland but the relatively low line has me a bit worried. Oakland is leading the AL West with a 6-4 record while Baltimore is 1-8 and on a 6 game losing streak (2 sweeps at home). I would've thought this line would be around -200 and Oakland would be the fav with the RL as well. It may be because Sheets lost his only game against Baltimore and gave up 5 runs in 6 innings.

I think we'll be okay though, but with a lot of new series starting up tomorrow I don't want to get into a hole too deep by betting too much on this game.

[DuncHen22]

SWEEP UPDATE:
-There have now been 47 decided series, and 4 away sweeps, or 8.5% of the series (Houston 2x, Baltimore 2x).
-6 Teams have needed a 3rd game to stay unswept.
-79% of all home teams have won at least one of their first 2 games.

(Note: "away sweep" means a home team was swept by the visiting team. The team listed is the home team who got swept)

[DuncHen22]

Here is another interesting note I'm going to follow:

Thus far, 5 out of 5 teams with a -200 or greater line in the first game of the series has won. There will be 3 tomorrow (PHI, STL, NYY), and all of them are home teams. Just something I want to follow for possible parlay purposes.

[DuncHen22]

So I'm going to try this parlay tomorrow just with 1/2 a unit for fun, but I like all of them to win:

Parlay: NYY, STL, PHI +186 .53 units tw 1 unit

Also, I'm liking these two team as of now, although I haven't locked them in yet so it may change:

ATL -140
MIN -120

And some I'm slightly leaning to but not set on:

SD -115
BOS -175
LAD -135
TOR -105

With Ellsbury and Cameron out, I can't play Boston, especially with the line so high.

[DuncHen22]

Locked these in:

ATL -129
MIN -124

Both to win a unit. Not going to play any of the other ones. This is it.

[robert_wrath]

Locked these in:

ATL -129
MIN -124

Both to win a unit. Not going to play any of the other ones. This is it.

Lock and Load on both these picks. ATL & MIN are on my Conviction Buy List.