Ride the winning teams, Fade the losing teams

[million2one]

According to vegas' season win totals, the three winingest teams will be New York, Boston, and Philadelphia, and the three losing-est teams will be Washington, Pittsburgh, and Toronto. I will not be playing every game for every team as that will surely lead to financial ruin, rather I will take an idea from probability theory and see if it applies here to baseball.

That is when the probability of an event is significantly above 50% (Good teams season win total) most of the winning streaks are two in length or longer (ww, www, wwww, etc.) and for an event significantly below 50% (Bad teams season win total) most of the losing streaks are two in length or longer (LL, LLL, LLLL, etc.)

So basically I am betting that the good teams will win after a win and betting that the losing teams will lose after a loss, but I am not betting the Good teams will win after every win. I will only bet when the possibility of a single win streak exists.
(i.e. In this sequence WWWLW I would only bet after the last win)
I will also be playing as a limited step martingale.

This is hardly handicapping, I will do that in a few weeks when more data is available, rather just an experiment in what I love sports and mathematics.

It's hard for me to verbalize I am a math guy. If I have confused you, just follow along and enjoy the ride. I think with the right money managment this could be profitable but I am not sure what that would be, so hopefully by doing this the money management part will become more clear.

[million2one]

My bets are that multiple single 'W' streaks will not exist for the good teams and that multiple single 'L' streaks will not happen for the bad teams. Only one eligible bet tonight on Pittsburgh, that is I am fading Pittsburgh and betting they will hit a losing streak of two or more, If they win tonight I will wait for Pittsburgh's next lost game and bet they will lose in the game following that loss as step two in the martingale.

GOOD TEAMS
New York Yankees:


Boston Red Sox:


Philadelphia Philles:


Bad Teams: (FADE)
Washington Nationals:


Pittsburgh Pirates:
[A bet] on Arizona Diamondbacks -155 risking $15.50 to win $10

Toronto Blue Jays:

[million2one]

Was thinking that this could be bad because it may be to early to find out who the bad teams are, so maybe I'll just play two or three teams, but picked up a win last night so I'll keep it rolling. Two eligible plays for today, play on Philly and a fade of the Nationals.

GOOD TEAMS
New York Yankees:


Boston Red Sox:


Philadelphia Phillies:
[A bet] on Philadelphia Phillies (-150) risking $15 to win $10

Bad Teams: (FADE)
Washington Nationals:
[A bet] on NY Mets (-125) risking $12.50 to win $10

Pittsburgh Pirates:1 -0 ; +$10


Toronto Blue Jays:

[TJ EasyStreet]

I like what you are saying. I've always wanted to do something similar using Pythagorean expectation, win shares, and VORP to judge which shitty teams are expected to improve the most. I have been too lazy to do it for two years running but I'd suspect that if you can identify the '08 Rays team, you can make some serious money early on while the lines are still square due to the perception of said team.

[million2one]

Picked up another win with the Phillies (tempted to take them again today on a personal note).
But took the loss trying to fade the Nats, so for that series my next bet ('B' bet) will be the game after the Nats' next loss.
Two new eligible plays for today as well, with NY and BOS.

How about the Bluejays standing at 4 -1 maybe I will not use them as the "Bad Team" and take a look at Houston instead.
It is hard to tell this early who will be the worst teams.

GOOD TEAMS
New York Yankees:
[A bet] on NY Yankees (-110) risking $11 to win $10

Boston Red Sox:
[A bet] on Boston Red Sox (-165) risking $16.50 to win $10

Philadelphia Phillies: 1 -0 ; +$10


Bad Teams: (FADE)
Washington Nationals: 0 - 1 ; -$12.50
[B bet] PENDING

Pittsburgh Pirates: 1 -0 ; +$10


Toronto Blue Jays:

[million2one]

Off to a solid start picking up two more wins last night, my only question is who are the worst teams?
I may throw out Toronto and use Houston instead.
Only one game in play for tonight, a FADE of the Pirates.

GOOD TEAMS
New York Yankees: 1 -0 ; +$10


Boston Red Sox: 1 -0 ; +$10


Philadelphia Phillies: 1 -0 ; +$10


Bad Teams: (FADE)
Washington Nationals: 0 - 1 ; -$12.50
[B bet] PENDING

Pittsburgh Pirates: 1 -0 ; +$10
[A bet] on San Fransisco Giants (-165) risking $16.50 to win $10

Toronto Blue Jays:

[million2one]

Picked up another win last night fading the Pirates.
A would be play exists today fading Toronto, but I am hesitant to call them a "bad team" at this point so will pass on them.
Definitely a B bet tomorrow on the Phils (Fade of Nats) can't wait to see how the first B bet turns out.

GOOD TEAMS
New York Yankees: 1 -0 ; +$10


Boston Red Sox: 1 -0 ; +$10


Philadelphia Phillies: 1 -0 ; +$10


Bad Teams: (FADE)
Washington Nationals: 0 - 1 ; -$12.50
[B bet] PENDING

Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 -0 ; +$20


Toronto Blue Jays:

[GT Hoosier]

This seems interesting. Nice job on actually following through and tracking your idea! I'm curious to see the outcome over a few week, BOL!

[million2one]

Thanks for your support, come and share your ideas anytime.
I use a similar method playing roulette (which can be successful over time) and just decided to apply this theory to MLB season.
It makes sense mathematically, the problem is that roulette is a ball spinning around an emotionless wheel, but with sports you can't account for the emotion and human element, anything can happen in one game and sports are not governed by mathematical principles, but I may get lucky and be able to follow this through. It would be a beautiful thing if this did work.

[sweethook]

well ur doing well, try it as long as ur winning dont let it get in ur $$ GL

[million2one]

First 'B' bet today on a Fade of the Nats, and who better then my hometown Phillies. Although not crazy about the price on Kendrick.
Also it seems clear at this point that I will not be using Toronto as a "bad team" and maybe swap them with Houston?
Only one eligible play for today.

GOOD TEAMS
New York Yankees: 1 -0 ; +$10


Boston Red Sox: 1 -0 ; +$10


Philadelphia Phillies: 1 -0 ; +$10


Bad Teams: (FADE)
Washington Nationals: 0 - 1 ; -$12.50
[B bet] on Philadelphia Phillies (-180) risking $47.70 to win $26.50

Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 -0 ; +$20


Toronto Blue Jays: