Tracking this Strategy...

fjordo · 04-08-10, 09:55 AM

Hope it goes well for you snowball. I'll keep an eye on your thread.

Snowball · 04-08-10, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by fjordo

Hope it goes well for you snowball. I'll keep an eye on your thread.

like all systems, it's going to take a while to build stats.
last year I played a system based on pitchers, it ran about 68%, but was breakeven in money because of favorites winning more than dogs.
Hopefully this one delivers better returns.

Snowball · 04-09-10, 09:28 AM

Yesterday's Winners:
Cubs (underdog,away,1st 5)
Dodgers (fav,away,1st 5)
Orioles (underdog,away)
Tigers (underdog,away)

Yesterday's Losers:
Mets (fav,home,1st 5)
Mariners (fav,away,1st 5)

Today's Plays: Rockies, Cardinals, Phillies, Rays.

Snowball · 04-10-10, 09:31 AM

Yesterday's Winners:
Rockies (home,fav,1st 5)
Cardinals (away,fav)
Phillies (away,fav,1st 5)
Rays (home,underdog,1st 5)

Yesterday's Losers:
none.

Today's Plays: Cubs,Orioles,Braves,Red Sox,White Sox,Brewers.

Snowball · 04-11-10, 12:33 AM

Yesterday's Winners:
Cubs (away,underdog)
Braves (away,fav)
Red Sox (away,fav)
White Sox (1st 5 only)
Yesterday's Losers:
White Sox (home,underdog)
Orioles (home,fav,1st 5)
Brewers (home,fav,1st 5)

I'm still compiling all the stats separately so as to establish trends.
Too early for that, although right now it's 11-5 on whole games.

Sunday Plays:
White Sox, Reds, Mets, Rangers, Dodgers, Athletics, Rockies.

Snowball · 04-12-10, 08:20 AM

Yesterday's Winners:
White Sox (home,fav)
Reds (home,fav)
Rangers (home,fav)
Rockies (home,fav)
Athletics (away,underdog)

Yesterday's Losers:
Mets (home,fav)
Dodgers (away,fav)

system record: 16-7

Today two of the picks ( Cardinals and Astros ) are playing each other.
I will not count this game toward the record, or give either team as a play.
I will merely tabulate the results.

Today's Plays: Twins, Indians.

southpaw74 · 04-12-10, 08:24 AM

Good luck snowball...hard to say if this system is just getting lucky so far but it's cool to see how well it's doing!! Thanks for keeping track

Snowball · 04-12-10, 04:43 PM

it is paying so far, although i believe it will get more selective when i can show how certain teams are more likely to win .. just not enough games to establish that for at least another month.. good thing it's winning in the meantime. i am maintaining a record book by team after a one-run loss; as favorite, underdog, home, away and even 1st 5, although i may drop 1st 5.

Wilforth · 04-12-10, 05:13 PM

Interesting.

Snowball · 04-13-10, 08:36 AM

Yesterday's Winners:
Twins (home,underdog,1st 5)
Cardinals (away,fav,1st 5)

Yesterday's Losers:
Astros (home,fav,1st 5)
Indians (home,dog, 1st 5)

System Total: 18-9

Today's Picks: Dodgers, Marlins, Blue Jays

Snowball · 04-14-10, 08:48 AM

Yesterday's Winners:
Dodgers (home,fav,1st 5)
Blue Jays (home,fav,1st 5)

Yesterday's Losers:
Marlins (home,fav,1st 5) extra inn.

System Total 20-10

Today's Plays: Royals, Giants

Snowball · 04-14-10, 06:26 PM

Today's Winners:
Royals (away,underdog,tie 1st 5)
Giants (home,fav,1st 5)

Today's Losers:
None

System Total: 22 wins, 10 losses.

Tomorrow's Picks T.B.D.

stealthyburrito · 04-14-10, 06:33 PM

Originally posted by Snowball

Today's Winners:
Royals (away,underdog,tie 1st 5)
Giants (home,fav,1st 5)

Today's Losers:
None

System Total: 22 wins, 10 losses.

Tomorrow's Picks T.B.D.

wow, working out great so far. keep feeding them winners

Snowball · 04-15-10, 10:07 AM

The system says 3 heavy visiting underdogs today. All games are afternoon matinees.
Perhaps this will be good for at least one of them to win. If just one wins, the overall unit loss will not be that bad (it would be even at 1-2 if it's the Astros). Astros have to win their first game sooner or later although I agree St. Louis is an unlikely place to get it.
All three of these teams are 0-1 each in the system. Later as more stats are developed, we will customize picks. Not Yet.

Astros (1:40pm) +200
Brewers (2:20pm) +160
Mets (3:10pm) +180

Wilforth · 04-15-10, 10:09 AM

Originally posted by Snowball

The system says 3 heavy visiting underdogs today. All games are afternoon matinees.
Perhaps this will be good for at least one of them to win. If just one wins, the overall unit loss will not be that bad (it would be even at 1-2 if it's the Astros). Astros have to win their first game sooner or later although I agree St. Louis is an unlikely place to get it.
All three of these teams are 0-1 each in the system. Later as more stats are developed, we will customize picks. Not Yet.

Astros (1:40pm) +200
Brewers (2:20pm) +160
Mets (3:10pm) +180

The Mets may disappoint you but I really like the Brewers and Astros.

oopfish · 04-15-10, 10:14 AM

snowball GL

talnted · 04-15-10, 10:15 AM

System seems to be rolling right now. May tail todays picks

Snowball · 04-15-10, 07:41 PM

Who tailed ? All bets won for combined +540 !

Today's Winners:
Astros (away,dog,1st 5)
Mets (away,dog,1st 5)
Brewers (away,dog,1st 5 tie)

System Total: 25 wins, 10 losses.

Tomorrow: T.B.D.

dodger33 · 04-15-10, 07:50 PM

pretty legit... might have to take a closer look at this. good luck snowball

Snowball · 04-16-10, 10:28 AM

Today's System Plays: Rangers, Diamondbacks

dodger33 · 04-16-10, 02:41 PM

Thanks for posting them!

EXhoosier10 · 04-16-10, 03:25 PM

How do you decide between full games and first 5?

Snowball · 04-16-10, 04:41 PM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

How do you decide between full games and first 5?

i am building a record book for each team.. all plays are full game, but i am also tracking 1st 5 inn, so an edge may present itself once we have enough games to start pro-rating picks.. once the database is large enough, i will post it.

in today's picks, the only one i am actually betting is Arizona. The Rangers I will not bet against, but also not for, as they are at Yankee Stadium and CC Sabathia is starting.

p.s. thanks a lot to those who give me points. I am taking points more seriously, after all you can get nice things with them like gift certificates.

tonyp0387 · 04-16-10, 05:17 PM

this system is working great

Snowball · 04-17-10, 10:27 AM

The system went 0-2 yesterday. D-Backs won the 1st 5 but their closer choked.
Rangers couldn't touch Sabathia.

Yesterday's Win: Diamondbacks 1st 5
Yesterdays Losses: Rangers, Diamondbacks.

System Total: 25 wins, 12 losses.

Today's System Pick: Mets

Snowball · 04-18-10, 08:51 AM

Yesterday system went 1-0. I am surprised the Mets beat Cardinals on the road. It sure took long enough, 20 innings. Cards must be embarrassed.

System Record: 26 wins, 12 losses.

Today's Picks:
Cubs (home,fav)
Royals (away,dog)
Orioles (away,dog)
Cardinals (home,fav)
White Sox (away,dog)
Reds (away,fav)
Red Sox (home,fav)

Snowball · 04-19-10, 10:18 AM

note: dropping 1st 5 inn. stat. No clear difference, relies on starting pitching which varies.
the system win/loss total contains no 1st 5 inn. outcomes, only whole outcomes already.

Yesterday's Winners:
Royals (away,dog)
Orioles (away,dog)
Cardinals (home,fav)

Yesterday's Losers:
Cubs (home,fav)
Red Sox (home,fav)
Reds (away,fav)
White Sox (away,dog)

The Royals and Orioles were such dogs that the system was positive yesterday.
At the end of the month I will post all team recs.

Totals: 29 wins, 16 losses

Today's Plays:
Cubs
(R.Wells @ Mets, away,fav-125, 2-1 system rec.)
Rockies
(A.Cook @ Nationals,away,fav-150, 2-0 system rec.)
Giants
(M.Cain @ Padres,away,fav-130, 1-0 system rec.)

BetfairUser · 04-19-10, 11:58 AM

hey snowball, looks like your system is working pretty well - any chance you can let us know how it's going profit-wise though, cos even tho your W-L ratio is great, you could still be losing... thanks

syn^ · 04-19-10, 01:41 PM

He has to be making good profit. He's been hitting a lot of underdogs.

Snowball · 04-20-10, 08:41 AM

The system went 0-3 yesterday, worst day ever.
BetFairuser - although i haven't been tracking the lines on each game, favorite/underdog is tracked.

System Record is now 29-19. Of the 29 wins, 14 were underdogs.

Yesterday's Losses: Cubs(awa,fav), Rockies(away,fav), Giants(away,fav).

Today only one pick: Giants (away,fav)

Snowball · 04-21-10, 09:22 AM

Yesterday's Loss: Giants (away,fav)

Record: 29-20

Today's Picks:
Royals (away,dog)
Rangers (away,dog)
Phillies (away,fav)
Tigers (away,dog)
Giants (away,dog)

fly fisher · 04-21-10, 09:41 AM

Snowball. Hey I know this is a baseball thread but wanted to say a "Hell of a call on Boston yesterday" I got home to late so couldn't take advantage, but you nailed that. Congrats hope you made a lot on that one yesterday cuz you deserved it. Didn't realize you did baseball. I had a lot of fun following you in NCAA this year though. Good luck man and "Yale to the Moon" Ha Ha. Take care.

playersonly69 · 04-21-10, 09:45 AM

It is easier to just handicap the games for baseball

Snowball · 04-22-10, 08:59 AM

From now on, I'm only going to track win/loss immediately following a one-run loss
on a per team, hom or away basis. The reason is that the majority of plays have been established as underdogs, and it doesn't matter if they are dogs or not (it doesn't influence their win/loss/home/away). The stat sheet is building, in a while I'll be posting their individual records.

Yesterday's Winners:
Royals (away, dog)
Phillies (away,fav)
Tigers (away,dog)

Yesterday's Losses:
Rangers (away,dog)
Giants (away,dog)

Overall Record: 32-22

Today's System Picks:
Rangers (away), Angels (home), Marlins (away).
next game they play: Blue Jays.

p.s. yes I do cap and play other games, but as long as this stays net positive i think it's worthwhile.
when I have more games we will start comparing teams.