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2018 - RL/ML Chase for Baseball
Trying a 3-game chase - Tony Chow (JM) system for the 2018 Baseball season
Look for teams that lost 3 games in a row SU and RL. Start a 3 game chase. If the dog, bet on the +RL, if favorite take the ML.
Results so far:
April 3rd:
Rangers WON A bet
Padres WON A bet
Orioles LOST A bet
April 4th:
Giants WON A bet
Orioles WON B bet
April 5th:
Phillies WON A bet
chase-G1 (4-1)
chase-G2 (1-0)
chase-G3 (0-0)
April 7th:
Nats ML -160 A bet
Marlins +RL -165 A bet
Last edited by Looking4Winners; 04-10-18 at 10:05 AM. Reason: adding today's game odds
2018 System to Date: 5-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +5.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 2 (Nats - 1.6, Marlins - 1.65)
April 3rd:
Rangers WON A bet
Padres WON A bet
Orioles LOST A bet
April 4th:
Giants WON A bet
Orioles WON B bet
April 5th:
Phillies WON A bet
April 7th:
Nats LOST A bet
Marlins LOST A bet
April 8th:
Dodgers A bet -- (ML -195)
Nats B bet -- (ML - 160)
Marlins B bet -- (RL - 135)
G1 - (A) 4-3
G2 - (B) 1-0
G3 - (C) 0-0
Last edited by Looking4Winners; 04-08-18 at 10:50 AM. Reason: adding odds
nice system! anyone have past results for this?
So far so good Winner. Thx for the thread
Guys, I am going to try and run two 3-game chase systems for this year. Post #1 is system one. This will be system 2.
This system we will look for teams that has lost 4 games SU and against the RL. We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL.
Using this chase the results from the past few years...
2017 54-0
2016 46-5 (Losing Teams - Royals, Phillies, Rays, Twins, Angels)
2015 52-5 (Losing Teams - Braves, Rockies, Tigers, Reds, Brewers)
2014 53-2 (Losing Teams - Cubs -12.42, Rangers -8.39)
2013 43-0
2012 51-4 (Losing Teams -Astros (2), Indians, Rockies)
2011 53-4 (Losing Teams - Twins, Mariners, O's, Padres)
I will try to find RL data (or if someone knows where I can find it) to see what the losing units would have been for years where there were losses.
This year the system is 2-0.
SYSTEM #2
2018 System to Date: 2-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +2.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0
April 4th:
O's WON A bet
April 8th:
Marlins WON A bet
Last edited by Looking4Winners; 04-13-18 at 09:24 AM. Reason: Calculate 2014 losses
This system we willI like your System #2 Looking4Winners. Although playing the favorites on the RL will keep the chase prices down, was wondering if just betting them SU might be worth it... if it prevented a loss or two? Thanks for the historical backtrack!look for teams that has lost 4 games SU and against the RL. We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the RL.
Last edited by dumazz; 04-09-18 at 08:52 AM.
My bad, I think I did not clarify. If the favorite you still would take them +RL. This price could get costly with the chase. That's why I was hoping to find historical RL data to see how many of the losing teams would have been favorites for the chase.Originally Posted by dumazz
SYSTEM #1
Look for teams that lost 3 games in a row SU and RL.
Start a 3 game chase. If the dog, bet on the +RL, if favorite take the ML.
2018 System to Date: 7-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +7.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 1 (Nats - 4.16)
April 3rd:
Rangers WON A bet
Padres WON A bet
Orioles LOST A bet
April 4th:
Giants WON A bet
Orioles WON B bet
April 5th:
Phillies WON A bet
April 7th:
Nats LOST A bet
Marlins LOST A bet
April 8th:
Dodgers A bet
Nats B bet
Marlins B bet
April 9th:
Nats C bet -- (ML - 235)
G1 - (A) 5-3
G2 - (B) 2-1
G3 - (C) 0-0
SYSTEM #2
This system we will look for teams that has lost 4 games SU and against the RL. We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL.
2018 System to Date: 2-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +2.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0
April 4th:
O's WON A bet
April 8th:
Marlins WON A bet
April 9th:
No play
I have a lot of experience with chasing. I will tell you this does not work. System 1 or system 2 will/is not successful long term.
You actually have it backwards for baseball. You need to chase that the events in question will continue not reverse.
Also make sure you are chasing to win a very small percentage of your total bank. 1/2 of a percent for example. A chase lost will be super costly.
Thank you for saying this...
April 9th:
Nats C bet -- (ML - 235)
this kind of juice will kill you in a chase.
Although I agree that that System #1 would probably end in disaster... here is the link to RKelly's 2017 thread:
https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...all-picks.html
... there might be some merit to Looking4Winners System #2, especially if you made it into a 4 game chase. Sure, 8 game losing streaks are not all that uncommon in MLB BUT, the four previous losses are all by the RL AND the following 4 game chase would also be on the RL (at least for the dogs). Could turn out to be a profitable strategy?
Keel - I agree that chases, if done, should be done with a very small percentage of your bankroll.
BestBoyMike - You're absolutely correct. But some might elect to forgo the "C" bet and still be showing a few units profit.Thank you for saying this...
April 9th:
Nats C bet -- (ML - 235)
this kind of juice will kill you in a chase.
And the Nats came through.....
SYSTEM #1
Look for teams that lost 3 games in a row SU and RL.
Start a 3 game chase. If the dog, bet on the +RL, if favorite take the ML.
2018 System to Date: 8-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +8.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0
G1 - (A) 5-3
G2 - (B) 2-1
G3 - (C) 1-0
April 3rd: Rangers WON A bet, Padres WON A bet
April 4th: Giants WON A bet
April 5th: Phillies WON A bet
April 7th: Nats LOST A bet, Marlins LOST A bet
April 8th: Dodgers WON A bet
April 9th: Nats WON C bet
April 10th: No Play
SYSTEM #2
This system we will look for teams that have lost 4 games SU and against the RL. We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL.
2018 System to Date: 2-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +2.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0
April 4th: O's WON A bet
April 8th: Marlins WON A bet
April 10th: No play
SYSTEM #1
Look for teams that lost 3 games in a row SU and RL.
Start a 3 game chase. If the dog, bet on the +RL, if favorite take the ML.
2018 System to Date: 8-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +8.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0
G1 - (A) 5-3
G2 - (B) 2-1
G3 - (C) 1-0
April 3rd: Rangers WON A bet
April 4th: Giants WON A bet
April 5th: Phillies WON A bet
April 7th: Nats LOST A bet
April 8th: Dodgers WON A bet
April 9th: Nats WON C bet
April 11th: No Play
SYSTEM #2
This system we will look for teams that have lost 4 games SU and against the RL. We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL.
2018 System to Date: 2-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +2.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0
G1 - (A) 2-0
G2 - (B) 0-0
G3 - (C) 0-0
April 4th: O's WON A bet
April 8th: Marlins WON A bet
April 11th: No play
Very new to this but why wasn’t Texas a play for system 1 last night? Hadn’t they lost 3 SU and RL? And now 4 after last night. Just trying to understand.
BlueBlood you are correct. Oversight on my part.
SYSTEM #1
Look for teams that lost 3 games in a row SU and RL.
Start a 3 game chase. If the dog, bet on the +RL, if favorite take the ML.
2018 System to Date: 8-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +8.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 1 (Rangers -1.05)
G1 - (A) 5-4
G2 - (B) 2-1
G3 - (C) 1-0
April 3rd: Rangers WON A bet
April 4th: Giants WON A bet
April 5th: Phillies WON A bet
April 7th: Nats LOST A bet
April 8th: Dodgers WON A bet
April 9th: Nats WON C bet
April 11th: Rangers LOST A Bet
April 12th: No Play
April 13th: Rangers B Play, Marlins A Play
Last edited by Looking4Winners; 04-12-18 at 12:58 PM.
SYSTEM #2
This system we will look for teams that have lost 4 games SU and against the RL. We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL.
2018 System to Date: 2-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +2.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0
G1 - (A) 2-0
G2 - (B) 0-0
G3 - (C) 0-0
April 4th: O's WON A bet
April 8th: Marlins WON A bet
April 12th: No play
April 13th: Rangers A play
SYSTEM #1
Look for teams that lost 3 games in a row SU and RL.
Start a 3 game chase. If the dog, bet on the +RL, if favorite take the ML.
2018 System to Date: 8-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +8.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 1 (Rangers -1.05)
G1 - (A) 5-4
G2 - (B) 2-1
G3 - (C) 1-0
April 3rd: Rangers WON A bet
April 4th: Giants WON A bet
April 5th: Phillies WON A bet
April 7th: Nats LOST A bet
April 8th: Dodgers WON A bet
April 9th: Nats WON C bet
April 11th: Rangers LOST A Bet
April 13th:
Rangers B Bet (+RL -101)
Marlins A Bet (+RL -140)
Royals A Bet (+RL -130)
SYSTEM #2
This system we will look for teams that have lost 4 games SU and against the RL. We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL.
2018 System to Date: 2-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +2.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0
G1 - (A) 2-0
G2 - (B) 0-0
G3 - (C) 0-0
April 4th: O's WON A bet
April 8th: Marlins WON A bet
April 13th: Rangers A Bet (+RL -101)
Last edited by Looking4Winners; 04-13-18 at 09:07 AM.
SYSTEM #1
Look for teams that lost 3 games in a row SU and RL.
Start a 3 game chase. If the dog, bet on the +RL, if favorite take the ML.
2018 System to Date: 11-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +11.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0
G1 - (A) 7-4
G2 - (B) 3-1
G3 - (C) 1-0
April 3rd: Rangers WON A bet
April 4th: Giants WON A bet
April 5th: Phillies WON A bet
April 7th: Nats LOST A bet
April 8th: Dodgers WON A bet
April 9th: Nats WON C bet
April 11th: Rangers LOST A Bet
April 13th:Rangers WON B Bet
April 14th: Tigers A Bet (+RL -130)
SYSTEM #2
This system we will look for teams that have lost 4 games SU and against the RL. We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL.
2018 System to Date: 3-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +3.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0
G1 - (A) 3-0
G2 - (B) 0-0
G3 - (C) 0-0
April 4th: O's WON A bet
April 8th: Marlins WON A bet
April 13th: Rangers WON A Bet
April 14th: No Play
Last edited by Looking4Winners; 04-14-18 at 01:42 PM. Reason: Update G1 record
SYSTEM #1
Look for teams that lost 3 games in a row SU and RL.
Start a 3 game chase. If the dog, bet on the +RL, if favorite take the ML.
2018 System to Date: 11-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +11.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0
G1 - (A) 7-4
G2 - (B) 3-1
G3 - (C) 1-0
April 3rd: Rangers WON A bet
April 4th: Giants WON A bet
April 5th: Phillies WON A bet
April 7th: Nats LOST A bet
April 8th: Dodgers WON A bet
April 9th: Nats WON C bet
April 11th: Rangers LOST A Bet
April 13th:Rangers WON B Bet
April 15th: Reds A Bet (+RL -105), Tigers A Bet (PPD)
SYSTEM #2
This system we will look for teams that have lost 4 games SU and against the RL. We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL.
2018 System to Date: 3-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +3.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0
G1 - (A) 3-0
G2 - (B) 0-0
G3 - (C) 0-0
April 4th: O's WON A bet
April 8th: Marlins WON A bet
April 13th: Rangers WON A Bet
April 15th: No Play
SYSTEM #1
Look for teams that lost 3 games in a row SU and RL.
Start a 3 game chase. If the dog, bet on the +RL, if favorite take the ML.
2018 System to Date: 12-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +12.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0
G1 - (A) 8-4
G2 - (B) 3-1
G3 - (C) 1-0
April 3rd: Rangers WON A bet
April 4th: Giants WON A bet
April 5th: Phillies WON A bet
April 7th: Nats LOST A bet
April 8th: Dodgers WON A bet
April 9th: Nats WON C bet
April 11th: Rangers LOST A Bet
April 13th: Rangers WON B Bet
April 15th: Reds WON A Bet
April 16th No Play
SYSTEM #2
This system we will look for teams that have lost 4 games SU and against the RL. We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL.
2018 System to Date: 3-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +3.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0
G1 - (A) 3-0
G2 - (B) 0-0
G3 - (C) 0-0
April 4th: O's WON A bet
April 8th: Marlins WON A bet
April 13th: Rangers WON A Bet
April 16th: No Play
SYSTEM #1
Look for teams that lost 3 games in a row SU and RL.
Start a 3 game chase. If the dog, bet on the +RL, if favorite take the ML.
2018 System to Date: 12-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +12.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0
G1 - (A) 8-4
G2 - (B) 3-1
G3 - (C) 1-0
April 3rd: Rangers WON A bet
April 4th: Giants WON A bet
April 5th: Phillies WON A bet
April 7th: Nats LOST A bet
April 8th: Dodgers WON A bet
April 9th: Nats WON C bet
April 11th: Rangers LOST A Bet
April 13th: Rangers WON B Bet
April 15th: Reds WON A Bet
April 17th Orioles A Bet (ML -111), Tigers A Bet (+RL -165)
SYSTEM #2
This system we will look for teams that have lost 4 games SU and against the RL. We will than start a 3-game chase. Whether a dog or favorite we will play the +RL.
2018 System to Date: 3-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +3.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 0
G1 - (A) 3-0
G2 - (B) 0-0
G3 - (C) 0-0
April 4th: O's WON A bet
April 8th: Marlins WON A bet
April 13th: Rangers WON A Bet
April 17th: No Play
SYSTEM #1
Look for teams that lost 3 games in a row SU and RL.
Start a 3 game chase. If the dog, bet on the +RL, if favorite take the ML.
2018 System to Date: 13-0 (finished series)
System Profit/Loss: +13.0 (finished series)
Current Open Series: 1 (Orioles -111)
G1 - (A) 9-5
G2 - (B) 3-1
G3 - (C) 1-0
April 3rd: Rangers WON A bet
April 4th: Giants WON A bet
April 5th: Phillies WON A bet
April 7th: Nats LOST A bet
April 8th: Dodgers WON A bet
April 9th: Nats WON C bet
April 11th: Rangers LOST A Bet
April 13th: Rangers WON B Bet
April 15th: Reds WON A Bet, Tigers A Bet
April 18th: Orioles B Bet (ML -119), White Sox A Bet (+RL -110)
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