LB thread for MLB plays 2010

[lakerboy]

Hey LB, if you had to lean on one side between Dodgers and Brewers who would it be???

brewers but the value is gone now. not worth it anymore.

[8ArIvd5]

the majority here won't understand this. people will still handicap a game based on who is better. gambling has NOTHING to do with who's the better team or pitcher. it's all about getting the best #..

by someone handicapping a team or pitcher, they will lose. gambling is all a #'s game. you should not handicap the game....ever.. you should handicap the line..

when 2 teams play, i make my bet without even knowing anything about the teams or who is hot or who is pitching. i never even know who's pitching.

half the time i never heard of the guy.. i bet games based on the #.. if a line is not good, i lay off.
handicap the line.. not the teams. the teams mean nothing.. it's all about the line you get.. i let the books pick my games. if they are too high on fav, i am on the dog. and vice versa.

i have NOT handicapped a game in 20 yrs.. handicapping is a waste of time.. that's why a line is there.. every stat people think they know is already applied into the line..

SBR posters will never learn. they will continue to cap games and bet em no matter what the price is..


Paul read this as well from Nicky. I learned alot from him in my time here on this site.

LB, how do you determine value in a line without knowing the team?

Edit: Did you read the Sports Investing book at the SBR store?

[lakerboy]

LB, how do you determine value in a line without knowing the team?

Edit: Did you read the Sports Investing book at the SBR store?

1. That quote is from Nicky Santoro.

2. LOL

[SoV]

That's some great info there, lakerboy. Good stuff there.

Does line movement matter as much in all sports? I remember you saying that it didn't matter that much in soccer sides, but did in the totals.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Eh LB, hows it going. Know you've been busy lately but I was just wondering if your interested in joining a fantasy league for NFL.

Check out the thread in the NFL Forum we'll have a nice size pot of sbr points at the end. http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...sy-league.html

[MidgetTossers]

good luck on your plays

[lakerboy]

Rockies ML -116 (4x) (5x) total (1x) at -102 and (4x) at -116

[lakerboy]

Nats ML -124 (1x)

Funny thing happened here. This play never went thru at one of my books. I submitted and left it assuming it went thru but just went back now and now noticed it never went thru. Will count it as a loss but wont affect me.

[broadway6]

Rockies ML -116 (4x) (5x) total (1x) at -102 and (4x) at -116

good luck to us

[Mashaka]

Funny thing happened here. This play never went thru at one of my books. I submitted and left it assuming it went thru but just went back now and now noticed it never went thru. Will count it as a loss but wont affect me.

nice

[lakerboy]

Rockies RRL +180 (1x)

Rockies TT over 4.5 -110 (2x)

Rockies ML -116 (2x) (7x) total now.


I guess the Rockies will make or break my night.

[Wilforth]

Rockies RRL +180 (1x)

Rockies TT over 4.5 -110 (2x)

Rockies ML -116 (2x) (7x) total now.


I guess the Rockies will make or break my night.

Let's hope they "make" rather than "break". BOL.

[lakerboy]

Rockies is a loser. Congrats Braves backers.

[broadway6]

Rockies is a loser. Congrats Braves backers.

same thing happened last night in the Reds/Giants game....keep the faith

[broadway6]

2-0 Rox!!!!

[Pauulzcappin]

Colorado up 2-0 now, too bad I didn't play it.

Good call so far

[Pauulzcappin]

Coors field is pretty funny, all CarGo did was lift the ball up. On most of the places it would be a routine fly ball, on Colorado it's a home run.

[broadway6]

lost a shit load tonight.......fuqk baseball and it's late steam. every effin game i bet

[lakerboy]

Giants ML -107 (1x)

Dbags ML +173 (1x)

[Mikail]

Giants ML -107 (1x)

Dbags ML +173 (1x)

Good luck LB. What do you think about the D-Backs TT O 3

[lakerboy]

Good luck LB. What do you think about the D-Backs TT O 3

I like it. Thanks Mikail.

[Mikail]

I like it. Thanks Mikail.

Sure. Thanks for the input.

[PickSix]

Let's do this Lb

[broadway6]

cut the Rox game off.. stranded bases loaded and Lowe just walked to lead off the inning....

[broadway6]

Rockies RRL +180 (1x)

Rockies TT over 4.5 -110 (2x)

thanks LB

[lakerboy]

Mets ML +105 (1x)

Cards TT under 4.5 -105 (1x)

Phils TT over 4.5 -115(1x)

2-1 so far. Phils TT over 4.5 obviously wont cash. Mets

[Pauulzcappin]

No good luck for you on Giants! Good luck on the rest of the card.

[lakerboy]

Lb,

when you talk about beating the closing #, I obviously understand what that means, but couldn't you still produce a profit by just waiting and seeing how the line moves and betting it right before gametime..I am confused why you must bet it the night before or earlier in the day before the game begins, I understand you may not be getting as much juice, but wouldn't that team be the right play then if you see good line movement in their favor??

Yes the play might be the right play butwe cant always win so its important to get it early as you see the move being made so if it loses you dont lose as much as you would before gametime when the vig would be higher. remember the right play doesnt always win.

Guys, im really interested in these line moves, let's make the exmple as Wil posted Reds/Giants Totals:

TOTALS - OVER/UNDER
08/23 18:30 7 -117 / 7 +106
08/23 19:28 7 -127 / 7 +115
08/24 08:43 7 -130 / 7 +118
08/24 09:07 7½ +102 / 7½ -113


Why is your play Under? the odds are going up on Under

what happened there is that money on the over or bettors on the over moved the line up. if you have a book that is hanging 7 while all others have moved to 7.5 you take that over 7.

LB I do agree with you that as long as you beat the no vig line you are going to be a long term winner. It is pure and simple math. But since I'm new to "line" handicapping, for me it is a lot harder than it looks. Can you help me out by giving some guidelines in what to look for?. Also, besides SBR where do you find a better estimate of public % betting? Thanks.

look at different betting % sites( pregame/thespread/sportsinsights/covers(not much though). make sure they all have the same number and then make your move. they must ALL MATCH. if one has a discrepancy you leave that play alone. look for lines where the public is heavy on one side but there is little or NO movement at all.

[Pauulzcappin]

Reds lost, congrats LB

[lakerboy]

Reds lost, congrats LB

2nd inning.

[broadway6]

braves are the kings of 2 out rbi hits

[limitation]

I warned you guys about chasing Reds. I don't have any money in that game so I don't care who wins. But it's risky to chase with Reds when there are better cards on the board. Reds bullpen has been overused and their hitters are a little banged up at the moment.

[lakerboy]

I warned you guys about chasing Reds. I don't have any money in that game so I don't care who wins. But it's risky to chase with Reds when there are better cards on the board. Reds bullpen has been overused and their hitters are a little banged up at the moment.

im on the giants though.

[Pauulzcappin]

I warned you guys about chasing Reds. I don't have any money in that game so I don't care who wins. But it's risky to chase with Reds when there are better cards on the board. Reds bullpen has been overused and their hitters are a little banged up at the moment.

Who said anything about chasing?

[limitation]

Who said anything about chasing?

Weren't you the one who was so confident about Reds winning last night? I remember hearing about how Travis Woods was the best young starter and Sanchez was no better than #4 starter. Correct me if I am wrong. You were so confident about Reds winning you were talking about putting a dime on it.