LB thread for MLB plays 2010

[jorge1]

Reverse line movement, means people with deep pockets are pouding Cleveland.

Okay, so if you are thinking of playin OAK its a no play based on big money???

[lakerboy]

Really busy today boys but I should be back on around first pitches at 7pm est and answer some of these questions to the best of my ability. I'm really pleased that a lot of people are excited to learn about the meaning of line moves etc and since I started the convo a couple of weeks ago I'm not gonna leave people hanging without answers.glad to see people want to learn as this site is for helping and teaching newcomers to gaming.talk to you guys later- thanks.

[JR007]

Good luck tonight Guys

[Holdin Aces]

LB I think its great that you take the time to do this for everyone. I have been gambling successfully for about 15 years and I learned alot from your basketball thread. Just wanted to say thanks for all you do, now if only this forum were made up of more people willing to learn instead of blindly tailing.

I also think that Cleveland beats Oakland tonight, I am an A's fan and as soon as I seen the line last night I took Cleveland. We struggle with Cleveland for some reason. Goodluck tonight everyone and LB thanks once again.

[Pauulzcappin]

Okay, so if you are thinking of playin OAK its a no play based on big money???

RLM doesn't always mean your wager on the public team is gonna lose, but I'd advice to avoid playing it more often then not.

[t-wizzle]

Haven't been around much over the summer, but hope everything is going well LB. Congrats again on the baby

Gearin up for nfl season... I'm more of a baseball fan but from a gambling standpoint, I can't wait for the nfl season to start; it's been a long wait since the end of the nba finals.

Looks like there's some newcomers who want to learn your ways my man. Your insights are greatly appreciated by this forum - I know I learned a ton from you

[MidgetTossers]

LB I think its great that you take the time to do this for everyone. I have been gambling successfully for about 15 years and I learned alot from your basketball thread. Just wanted to say thanks for all you do, now if only this forum were made up of more people willing to learn instead of blindly tailing.

I also think that Cleveland beats Oakland tonight, I am an A's fan and as soon as I seen the line last night I took Cleveland. We struggle with Cleveland for some reason. Goodluck tonight everyone and LB thanks once again.

i agree with you 100% on this pal..cleveland is the play tonight..they are actually a decent home team and do give the a's fits...

[MannyWood]

Can someone explain the line movement in the Oakland game to me. The went from +101 to -110 and know back to +100. Is this a big move and what does it mean. Am trying to learn what line movement means!!!

[Pauulzcappin]

Can someone explain the line movement in the Oakland game to me. The went from +101 to -110 and know back to +100. Is this a big move and what does it mean. Am trying to learn what line movement means!!!

According to sbrodds.com, almost 70% of the public is on Oakland, but the line hasn't moved at all in their favour.

That means people with deep pockets, aka sharps are pounding Cleveland.

[MannyWood]

According to sbrodds.com, almost 70% of the public is on Oakland, but the line hasn't moved at all in their favour. That means people with deep pockets, aka sharps are pounding Cleveland.

So that makes Cleveland the play or nothing???

[Allure]

So that makes Cleveland the play or nothing???

Yeah.

[Mashaka]

But how do you know the line will continue to drop or stay the same?. How can you be so sure the line will not go up again, then taking Oakland right now will have you beating the closing line.

[southpaw74]

Thanks for the help LB! I appreciate the education...

[4getaboutit]

Please keep the knowledge coming so we all can make $.
Thanx LB and all.

[Wilforth]

That there's line movement against the A's doesn't necessarily mean they'll lose. One must be careful with interpreting line movements. No group of players go into a game telling themselves "let's lose because the closing line moved against us".

[Mashaka]

That there's line movement against the A's doesn't necessarily mean they'll lose. One must be careful with interpreting line movements. No group of players go into a game telling themselves "let's lose because the closing line moved against us".

Of course not, but if you assume the closing line is the most accurate reflect you can get of the real probability of a team wining/losing (according to the market that is, and assuming it is "perfect"), then if you can beat that line you are always getting paid of more than the "fair price" for that event and in the long term you are going to make money.
How to predict line movement so you can beat the closing line is the real question for me.

[hawley]

where do you guys usually watch late line movement?

is it through your book or another website?

[DennisGreen]

That there's line movement against the A's doesn't necessarily mean they'll lose. One must be careful with interpreting line movements. No group of players go into a game telling themselves "let's lose because the closing line moved against us".

Exactly. I am a firm believer that line movement is overrated. Just because rich fcuks are pounding one team and moving the line doesn't mean they are always right or good gamblers even. The line has been back and forth today but it sits higher than the open on most books.

[DennisGreen]

where do you guys usually watch late line movement? is it through your book or another website?

www.sbrodds.com is what I use. Check it out

[Tommy_de1st]

I think I figured it out. LB said he knew shit about NCAAB team and players and still could win at betting them. He lets books pick the winner and before the line drops he beats the closing line by playing on decent odds, often EV+. Sometimes he wins, sometimes he loses but in the end he'll be in '+'. The line is the most accurate just before the game and by beating it we are capable of gaining more money.

[Tommy_de1st]

and as Mashaka said: "How to predict line movement so you can beat the closing line?" and if you wait till the end you are not gonna get Ev+

[lakerboy]

Mets ML +105 (1x)

[hawley]

LB and others, i gotta say a huge thanks for your insight and knowledge on all this line movement and action stuff

another question: what do you think is a significant movement?

[lakerboy]

That there's line movement against the A's doesn't necessarily mean they'll lose. One must be careful with interpreting line movements. No group of players go into a game telling themselves "let's lose because the closing line moved against us".

The A's line is still the same as the opener. Thats really funny wil. Money determines winners.

[hawley]

8/24 15:56 -235 / +219
08/24 18:23 -230 / +215
08/24 18:33 -233 / +217
08/24 18:40 -225 / +210
08/24 18:45 -217 / +203

is this movement in the cards line anything worth noting?

[Kraghen]

OA's tonight is the choice of most of online famous handicapper, I have a good feeling about them and the Newyork mets. Anyway good luck to you all!

[broadway6]

Mets ML +105 (1x)

already on it

[Pauulzcappin]

Night LB, check recent movement on Reds.

[broadway6]

LB, you don't like Toronto line movement?

[broadway6]

Night LB, check recent movement on Reds.

good thing there is 3 hrs + for the line to come back or to buy out

[lakerboy]

Night LB, check recent movement on Reds.

goona wait that one out

LB, you don't like Toronto line movement?

i do but yanks are gonna score 5 runs at least and im not sure toronto will

[MannyWood]

Hey LB, if you had to lean on one side between Dodgers and Brewers who would it be???

[lakerboy]

Nats ML -124 (1x)

[lakerboy]

Cards TT under 4.5 -105 (1x)

Phils TT over 4.5 -115(1x)

[paco]

tonight LB.