2010 MLB Season-lyon804

[lyon804]

+1.3 dimes....very nice.

are you just betting 1 unit per game for now?

and you claimed baseball was your weak sport

For thread purposes I grade them all as one unit. I am a noobie when it comes to consistently winning at MLB so I am just trying this method for records sake. I have never won and went wire to wire in the MLB so i don't know what to think about this start other that it's early, very early. I have made some adjustments in the way I bet.My downfall in the past was to play big favs in MLB and chase them and i would lose get frustrated and quit.. On to fantasy baseball. Anyways, as i digress here I am looking to play ML+dogs and short priced favorites. My goal is to be a winner in this sport and then I can become a professional gambler as I do well in football and basketblll. So far I am actually up +4439 in real dollars this MLB season and made nearly half of that yesterday. It's a good start, but I have tempered my expectations as it can't be this easy. After yesterday and liking the whole board today I decided to play $50 a game today.. I want to protect my profits and relax after the good start and not give it back.. I like to make it big but hate to give it back.

[Wilforth]

So far I am actually up +4439 in real dollars this MLB season and made nearly half of that yesterday. It's a good start, but I have tempered my expectations as it can't be this easy. After yesterday and liking the whole board today I decided to play $50 a game today.. I want to protect my profits and relax after the good start and not give it back.. I like to make it big but hate to give it back.

That's the zenith of wisdom!

[Dexter]

For thread purposes I grade them all as one unit. I am a noobie when it comes to consistently winning at MLB so I am just trying this method for records sake. I have never won and went wire to wire in the MLB so i don't know what to think about this start other that it's early, very early. I have made some adjustments in the way I bet.My downfall in the past was to play big favs in MLB and chase them and i would lose get frustrated and quit.. On to fantasy baseball. Anyways, as i digress here I am looking to play ML+dogs and short priced favorites. My goal is to be a winner in this sport and then I can become a professional gambler as I do well in football and basketblll. So far I am actually up +4439 in real dollars this MLB season and made nearly half of that yesterday. It's a good start, but I have tempered my expectations as it can't be this easy. After yesterday and liking the whole board today I decided to play $50 a game today.. I want to protect my profits and relax after the good start and not give it back.. I like to make it big but hate to give it back.

i know a lot of members are into the whole 1 unit per game for grading purposes.

fact is if you bet with a weighted approach, no big deal to state the actual units bet.

so what if you're 45% year end - so long as the units are in the black thats all that matters (assuming the capper isnt chasing losses with bigger bets)

anyway, great start

[lyon804]

That's the zenith of wisdom!

Thank you It has come from many years of experience and losing in the past.. In the past some of my biggest loses have come right behind my biggest wins. So whenever I do well in any sport I pull back a hair and don't push too much. I can't stand to give money back to the books. I don''t view it like I am playing with house money when I win. I view it as my money and I value it almost like I do my own children


Gambling, for me as I have learned is simple as this... We all are going to win and we are all going to lose. The question is...who can profit when they run well and look to lessen loses when they lose.

At the end of the year you can segment your records after the season and see what you did and why you did it. I sat down the other nite and went over my entire NBA season and was surprised to find that I made well into 5 figures and only really won big a few weeks.. The rest of the time I was grinding away loosing a little here and making a little there, but overall my season could have been segmented into 5 very good weeks were I destroyed the books. Other weeks overall I made some money, but all the othere weeks combined can barely make up for the 1 really big weeks and I had 5 of those were i could not be denied.

Gambling is a fickle game and hard to win at. I am no expert. 11 yrs later I am learning still...about me. It it more important to know you more than anything else.. i am not competing against the books anymore.. I am competing against me. If I control me I can't help but win in the long run.


What I have learned for me is this game is not about what people think it is.. I will here people talk about making +EV wagers and knowing mathmatical formulas and systems and everything else. I here people talk about winning % and this and that. My winning percentage is nothing to brag about. I won almost 54% of my NBA plays over 400 of them and made a killing. After all that I still couldn't tell you what my +EV and -EV bets were and made it another great season in the NBA and football.


I have a simple strategy.. I cap games to the best of my abilities but I am no expert and I know this. I understand line value somewhat and study line movements. I try to just get a handle on why things are what they are and find the motivation behind what's what and after studying all these factors I find a few nuggets here and there and pounce on them and the rest of the time I am just playing to stay sharp and lean to be in cync with the cycle when the opportunities present themselves.


At the beginning of the NBA season I bet 100 a game units and played 1-3 units most games and maxed around 5 units. At the end of the NBA season i wasn't betting anything under 500 a game.

So far in MLB I have bet as low as 25 and high as 2000 on 1 game. The 2K was Tampa Bay at home last Friday against Yanks. Vasquez Vs Price.. at +100ML and I just felt it, knew that bitch was going to work..final score 9-3 tampa. I get those keen feeling here and there and I pay attention to them and if I bet that amount I am in love with the play and feel it almost can't lose because I sure as hell don't want to lose that amount. I have made a few bets over 2K in the last year and have won all of them (6) of them.




I am done writing my autobiography of gambling now I didn't write this to belittle or insult anybody else's methods. I did this for me. It's true I am a selfish person somewhat and want to reiterate to myslef what I do because losing is easier than winning. It's not about what others think it is for me to be succesful but I guess there are more way than one to skin a cat and we are all different. I simply was sharing my thoughts almost like a journal for my sake as I have no other outlet to express myself about gambling and what I feel about it. Sure, I have friends that play, but they are normal people.. which is to say.. they don't get it and will never get it. It took me 6 yrs to get it and I reuped and paid bookies most of the time by playing over my means and chasing silly shit just like an amatuer would do. Picking games wasn't my problem. I picked good enough as a complete no nothing but I had no plan or clue what the hell to do and I sure as hell didn't know how to control me. In gambling we are all our biggest enemies. If you can control and beat yourself over the long run you can't help but to win money.



Damn, I can't believe if anybody actually read this shit. I am passionate about this to a fault. I am embarrased to post all my rambling, but I will because it might just click for somebody that reads it.

[jnickell100]

Damn lyon, nice post....seriously. I think youre problem is the same as everyone elses, i know its mine for sure as well. I will win huge for a couple days and then give it all back. I love your write up and i need to conscientiously remember to keep my units in check when im up and get off the computer when im down.

[lyon804]

[quote=lyon804;4114481]Plays for Friday April 16th

Cincy ML +100 L
Brewers over 8.5 -125 L
Cards over 8.5 -110 L
Twinkies ML -132 W
Arizona ML -111 L
Braves over 8.5 -115 W
Cubs under 9 -115 P


Today 2-4-1 -2.46




Overall 34-26-1 +11.85

[lyon804]

Plays for April 19th

Cubs ML -135
Cubs under 8 -110
Pads/Giants under 7-120
Tigers/Angels over 9.5 -120



Hate to have missed my gambling brethren over the weekend as I went with family to the lake. I hope all is doing well and best of luck tonite. Wish, I could have posted what I was betting over the weekend but couldn't get to a computer.

[No coincidences]

Plays for April 19th

Cubs ML -135
Cubs under 8 -110
Pads/Giants under 7-120
Tigers/Angels over 9.5 -120



Hate to have missed my gambling brethren over the weekend as I went with family to the lake. I hope all is doing well and best of luck tonite. Wish, I could have posted what I was betting over the weekend but couldn't get to a computer.

Seems like everyone's on the Cubs. They've been a play for me since yesterday. I really like Wells. I'm worried about it being a consensus, though.

BOL, Lyon.

BTW, what do you think about Seattle tonight?

[lyon804]

Seems like everyone's on the Cubs. They've been a play for me since yesterday. I really like Wells. I'm worried about it being a consensus, though.

BOL, Lyon.

BTW, what do you think about Seattle tonight?

Not worried about the consensus here are not. just grinding here as i just have my lunch money on these plays tonite 50 bucks a bet.. Hit some nice ones lately and nothing I really love tonite. Been gone drinking on my boat all weekend


Seattle you ask? They should win imo but i don't want to lay it.. kinda like the over but passed it up.

Good luck with your plays..

[No coincidences]

Not worried about the consensus here are not. just grinding here as i just have my lunch money on these plays tonite 50 bucks a bet.. Hit some nice ones lately and nothing I really love tonite. Been gone drinking on my boat all weekend


Seattle you ask? They should win imo but i don't want to lay it.. kinda like the over but passed it up.

Good luck with your plays..

You doing NBA?

[lyon804]

Plays for April 19th

Cubs ML -135 L
Cubs under 8 -110 W
Pads/Giants under 7-120 W
Tigers/Angels over 9.5 -120 L



Hate to have missed my gambling brethren over the weekend as I went with family to the lake. I hope all is doing well and best of luck tonite. Wish, I could have posted what I was betting over the weekend but couldn't get to a computer.

Yesterday 2-2 -0.55




36-28-1 +11.30

[paco]

Goodluck Lyon today. Looks like me taking the day off MLB yesterday proves wise since alot of great cappers took some bad beats. Lyon, do u wager NHL playoffs? If so, stop by my MLB thread cuz I been on fire in NHL

[lyon804]

Goodluck Lyon today. Looks like me taking the day off MLB yesterday proves wise since alot of great cappers took some bad beats. Lyon, do u wager NHL playoffs? If so, stop by my MLB thread cuz I been on fire in NHL

Sup paco!! Thanks buddie and hope you have a great day. I don't know the first thing about the NHL Don't even know who is playing. I live in southern us and we don't have hockey here nor is it televised. I like winners though and if you have them put em on me.

[lakerboy]

Goodluck Lyon today. Looks like me taking the day off MLB yesterday proves wise since alot of shitty cappers like LB took some bad beats. Lyon, do u wager NHL playoffs? If so, stop by my MLB thread cuz I been on fire in NHL

Fixed it.

[ScarFace_1990]

[QUEST001]

Good luck on your plays Lyon...

[colts]

Quote:
Originally Posted by paco
Goodluck Lyon today. Looks like me taking the day off MLB yesterday proves wise since alot of shitty cappers like LB took some bad beats. Lyon, do u wager NHL playoffs? If so, stop by my MLB thread cuz I been on fire in NHL

Fixed it.

[lyon804]

Yesterday 2-2 -0.55




36-28-1 +11.30

NBA has my attention tonite fellas and I just can't post anything for baseball tonite. Really can't concentrate on baseball today because I am enamored with the NBA. best of luck fellas!!