Carson05's 2010 MLB Picks

[Carson05]

I'm going to document all my 2010 MLB picks here.

Depositing $250 into Matchbook, and 5Dimes.

plays will be in bold, with unit size, and sportsbook listed.

1 unit = $5

I will try to include a write up with every selection. As always please research your picks and tail at your own risk!

[rydaphotoguy]

Hope we all cash big this season!

[Carson05]

Yankees vs. Red Sox 4-5-10

Passing on tonight's game, there are too many factors that could make things go either way here. Beckett and Sabathia have had decent springs. The Yankees lineup is loaded, but Beckett has shown really good stuff his last time out. With this Yankees lineup, anytime you have Sabathia on the hill, and they are an underdog in Fenway park, i like those odds. But it is Opening Day, there will be added adrenaline on the Red Sox side, with the fans helping and the incentive of beating the WS champs. Sabathia has been erratic his last few starts this spring, and i don't feel comfortable going against Beckett at home, who i believe only had 1 loss at home last year. i will sit back and see what happens! Good Luck!

Yankees vs. Red Sox NO PLAY

[Carson05]

Cubs @ Braves 4-5-10

Carlos Zambrano is a power pitcher, and seems to be in a good mental state. The braves are a patient hitting club, but i think Zambrano actually matches up well. Chipper and Glaus have lost bat speed, Mclouth has been really struggling, and rookie Heyward has never faced Z.

i think this will be an uncomfortable matchup for the braves.

Derek Lowe is getting up there in age, and is facing the pressure of bouncing back after his horrid 2nd half last year. i'm concerned about his stamina in this game, and i can see Lowe getting into jams early. Derek Lee has batted over .300 in his career vs. Lowe. look for the heart of the order to cause problems. I think Piniella and the Cubs come out playing loose, while the Braves will face the pressure of starting Cox's last year off well, as well as D. Lowe trying to improve on last years performance.

I'll take the Cubs as the underdog in this one.

Chicago Cubs +117 @ 5dimes (1x)

[Carson05]

Cubs @ Braves 4-5-10

I'll take the Cubs as the underdog in this one.

Chicago Cubs +117 @ 5dimes (1x)

LOSS (ytd: 0-2, -$9.03)

Adding:

2 team parlay:

Duke ML -370
Seattle Mariners -150 (1x)

[Carson05]

Seattle Mariners 1st 5 Innings -½ -105* (1x) @ 5dimes.

[Carson05]

Adding: 2 team parlay: Duke ML -370 Seattle Mariners -150 (1x)

Seattle Mariners 1st 5 Innings -½ -105* (1x) @ 5dimes.

YTD: 2-2 (50%, +$1.56)

[Carson05]

4-6-10

Seattle Mariners/Oakland Athletics Over 8 -108 @ 5dimes (1x)

Snell and Braden have a lot to prove, and i can see either one struggling early here. 8 is a pretty low number, and i will take a chance on these two pitchers not having great starts.

[Carson05]

4-6-10

Seattle Mariners/Oakland Athletics Over 8 -108 @ 5dimes (1x)

Snell and Braden have a lot to prove, and i can see either one struggling early here. 8 is a pretty low number, and i will take a chance on these two pitchers not having great starts

LOSS

well, didn't expect Dallas Braden to come out and hurl 10 strikeouts, or the A's lineup only get 1 run off an erratic Snell, but i learned from it. The A's and Mariner's lineups are AWFUL. just a bed bet here, but one to learn from.

YTD W-L: 2-3, (40%, -$3.84)

[Carson05]

Wed. April 7, 2010

Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics Under 8 -120 (2x) @ 5dimes

These lineups are not very good. Ryan Rowland-Smith has good stuff for a lefty and has looked good this spring. He is an undervalued pitcher right now. Duchsherer is one of the best when healthy, and i think he gets through this Mariners lineup without too much difficulty. I see another low scoring affair in A's cavernous stadium.

Chicago Cubs +146 @ 5dimes

Jurjjens has battled arm soreness this spring, but seemingly has gotten over it in time for his first start. Dempster has had a good spring, and looks to bounce back from a dissappointing 09. I don't think Dempster and the Cubs should be this much of an underdog at this point, and Jurrjjens will have to prove to me that he is healthy. I'll take the Cubs for good value.

Florida Marlins/New York Mets Over 8½ -101 (1x) @ 5dimes

Maine has looked shaky this spring, lacking command, and looking uncomfortable on the mound. Nolasco has been nasty this spring, but i like the Mets to score a few on him. I'm thinking both starters give up their fair share in this one, with the potential that Maine gets rocked, and the bullpens contributing a few runs late.

Florida Marlins -116 (1x) @ 5dimes

I like Nolasco and the Marlins lineup to control this game. Nolasco is on a roll this spring, while Maine has looked inconsistent. I look for the Marlins to break out the bats in this one.

Washington Nationals +153 (1x) @ 5dimes

Jason Marquis is coming off a strong year, while Hamels is coming off a dissapointing one. Look for Marquis to build momentup from last year with his new team. Nationals are capable of putting up runs against Hamels, and with it being at home, I'll take a shot at the +153 underdog line.

St Louis Cardinals/Cincinnati Reds Under 8 -109 (1x) @ 5dimes

Wainwright had a Cy Young type season last year. Cueto was up and down, but has great stuff and a nice fastball. I love Wainwright to shut down the Reds, and i believe Cueto and the Reds have the ability to handle the Cards bats enough to keep it under the 8.

St Louis Cardinals -1½ +124 (1x) @ 5dimes

With Wainwright on the hill and the stacked Cardinals lineup, I like the Cards to pull off an easy victory over the Reds. Cardinals offense will simply be overpowering, and i don't see the Red's keeping up with them.

[Carson05]

adding:

St Louis Cardinals 1st 5 Innings -½ -110 (1x) @ 5dimes

[Carson05]

i like the line movement and Nolasco in this one:

adding Florida Marlins 1st 5 Innings -½ +110 (1x) @ 5dimes

[Carson05]

Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics Under 8 -120 (2x)

LOSS bad odds on this one. not a smart bet. worst bet so far. learning here.

Chicago Cubs +146

LOSS tough loss here. this was a good bet with good odds.

Florida Marlins/New York Mets Over 8½ -101 (1x)

WIN

Florida Marlins -116 (1x)

WIN

Washington Nationals +153 (1x)

LOSS good bet here i think. just didn't come through.

St Louis Cardinals/Cincinnati Reds Under 8 -109 (1x)

LOSS

this wasn't a great bet. with the cards offense in that ballpark...just not a very good bet.

St Louis Cardinals -1½ +124 (1x)

WIN

St Louis Cardinals 1st 5 Innings -½ -110 (1x)

WIN

Florida Marlins 1st 5 Innings -½ +110 (1x)

WIN

YTD: 7-7 (50%, -$2.98)

[Carson05]

[Carson05]

fading masterson, liking floyd and the sox at home here.

[Carson05]

Philadelphia Phillies 1st 5 Innings -½ -110 (0.5x)

[Carson05]

Marlins/Mets UNDER 9 runs -102 5dimes (.5x)

neise and robertson are new to these hitters, i think these lefties confuse the hitters today @ spacious citi field

[Carson05]

YTD: 13-11 (54.17%, +$9.54)

[Carson05]

[Carson05]

YTD: 16-11 (59.26%, +$24.54)

[Carson05]

Fading the old man here. i think the astros can at least squeeze out 4 runs on moyer and the phillie bullpen.

[Carson05]

Boston Red Sox ML -107 (1x) @ 5dimes.

i'll take my chances with the Red Sox offense and beckett against the mediocre royals offense and greinke. @ -107 i like it.

[Carson05]

Fading the old man here. i think the astros can at least squeeze out 4 runs on moyer and the phillie bullpen.

[Carson05]

Boston Red Sox ML -107 (1x) @ 5dimes. i'll take my chances with the Red Sox offense and beckett against the mediocre royals offense and greinke. @ -107 i like it.

YTD: 21-12, 63.64%, +$52.04 (+10 units)

[Carson05]

like the value with Garland against Jimenez who doesn't deserve those kind of odds yet

like the value with Oswalt and a hungry Astros team at home

like Cubs and Gorzellany against the Rookie making his debut, i'll take the +odds

LOVE the Mets, wish i had more going on this, but don't want to lay the sick ML odds. taking -1.5. livan will give up at least 4 runs. i think the mets win something like 8-2

Like Carpenter's Cards going against Wolf. dont think wolf can get through that lineup without giving up some home runs and walks

like the Marlins going up against a gimmick knuckleballer, and a healthy anibal sanchez at home. thinking marlins should be favored more, but the odds are moving in the dodgers favor? not overthinking this one, i like the Marlins offense to see ball hit ball and win with offense tomorrow.

Lastly, i like the D-backs/Pirates under 9.5. Edwin Jackson has the potential to dominate the weak pirates offense, and Mccutchen for the Pirates is a little undervalued i think.

[Carson05]

lot of wacky things today in baseball, some puzzling losses, and near misses. i will try to come back and learn from this. i think i made too many plays, and didn't focus hard enough. i do feel like i made several good plays however...just a bad day

[Ca$hfloW]

lot of wacky things today in baseball, some puzzling losses, and near misses. i will try to come back and learn from this. i think i made too many plays, and didn't focus hard enough. i do feel like i made several good plays however...just a bad day

Its alright keep it up, everyone has their bad days the key is how you recover. One piece of advice ill give you is maybe dont play so many games I like to play 3-4 max its a LONG season BOL in future

[Carson05]

yeah i don't know why i played so many games. probably because i was 8-1 the previous 2, and thought i was unstoppable.

im in this for the long haul though, and understand that responding well to days like that is the difference between long term profits and failure

[Carson05]

[Carson05]

Boston Red Sox/Minnesota Twins Under 9 -103 (1x)

Lester matches up well against the Twins, and Pavano has looked good and will be pumped for home opener.


Atlanta Braves -1.5 +115 (1x)

Jurjjens outclasses Correia here. I think this Braves lineup will finally give Jurjjens the support he lacked last year.

[Carson05]

well none of my underdog plays cashed, and the braves play was very square.

1-4 on the day.

YTD: 23-24, (48.94%, +$15 or +3 units)

[Carson05]

Toronto Blue Jays -108 (2x) @ 5dimes

Rays/Orioles OVER 9 +110 (1x) @ 5dimes

[Carson05]

New York Mets +133 (1x)

odds should be closer to even in this one

[Carson05]

Toronto Blue Jays -108 (2x) @ 5dimes

Rays/Orioles OVER 9 +110 (1x) @ 5dimes

luke scott!

[Carson05]

New York Mets +133 (1x) odds should be closer to even in this one

square play of the day

YTD: 25-25 (50%, +$26.25 or +5 units)