teecee's MLB under(s)dogs 2010

[teecee]

We'll kick off the 2010 season with 5 plays this afternoon. I'll see if I can't find more later. All plays are one unit.

April 3rd:

Chi White Sox W
Tor Blue Jays W
Col Rockies W
Det Tigers L
StL Cardinals L

Adding:

Cle Indians PUSH
Wash Nationals L
SFo Giants W
Chi Cubs W

[superjeff24]

do you have any stats for last year of betting MLB? just curious

[superjeff24]

tim hudson has been on fire this spring for Atl, danks' whip is 1.50 compared to 1.00 for hudson

[teecee]

I don't have any stats from last season, jeff. Sorry. This is basically my first season wagering baseball.

I see what you're saying about the Hudson/Danks matchup, but I have strict criteria from which I won't deviate, and the Braves are my favorite team. I played the Sox yesterday and won, when the Braves started Hanson. The Sox have a chance to win today, and an overwhelmingly large majority of my plays will be on dogs. A very small percentage of my plays will be on faves and unders.

GL this season, Jeff.

[whatsgood5]

Good luck!

[teecee]

[superjeff24]

GL Teecee, just curious what criteria you consider when picking dogs? I'll be watching your picks, and hopefully I can add my 2 cents here and there and bounce some ideas back and forth

[teecee]

Jeff, I will be following 3 rules:

rule #1: Eliminate games in which an underdog has lost 3 or more games in a row and/or the favorite has won 3 or more in a row.

rule #2: Eliminate games where the MoneyLine is +150 or higher.

rule #3: Eliminate game in which the underdog is facing one of the top 25 pitchers in the league according to NPERA (Normalized Predicted ERA, meaning the ERA they would've achieved if they had pitched in hypothetical composite major leagues of 1946-1999.)

Tim Hudson was #72 on the list for his amount of innings pitched, of course, I've been using last year's #'s in spring training.

[superjeff24]

are these rules you've learned over time, or is there a person who made these? I have never heard of NPERA which I guess makes me a noob, but I'm interested.

your first 5 picks are 4-5 so far, with a toronto and chicago blowout.

[Crush_your_book]

Lets cash...

[teecee]

Not my rules.

You can find this NPERA at the USA Today site. Jeff Sagarin's computer ratings. I will be using a filter. If I don't know who the pitcher is, or cannot find stats, it would be a no play. Examples from today are the NY Mets, KC Royals, and since I could not find #'s on the St Louis pitcher, they should have been filtered out as well, but that is just my opinion.

[TodaysAction]

Be careful with Sagarin ratings, you'd be better off using MLB's power rankings (and/but I'm not a fan of that either).

[teecee]

Apr. 4th:

NYY/Bos, u9

[teecee]

Apr. 5th:

Fla/NYM, u7 +110 L
Col/Mil, u7.5 -115 L
Det/KC, u7 -115 L
Min/LAA, u8.5 +100 L
Cubs, +121 L
Pirates, +122 W

For fvcks sake! I may forget about unders if m-f'ing bullpens can't shape the fvck up.

[teecee]

Apr. 6th: Hopefully there will be more green than red following my picks today.

Min Twins, ML +130 1u
Sea Mariners, ML +117 2u
NYY/Bos, u? (will wait 'til gametime to make the decision)

[teecee]

Apr. 6th:

I'm going to play on/against several teams this season, and these plays will also be included in this thread. The objective will be to ride 3-game max streaks (win or lose). No chasing will be involved. If I lose a wager,that will end the series and I will wait for another trigger (win or loss) to begin another series. I'll set it up like so: 2u-2u-1u

Added:

SFG, +120 2U W
AZ, -143 2U L

[teecee]

Gonna have to lay off the totals for awhile, b/c it's apparent to me that I've no clue what's going on in that arena.

Apr. 7th:

TamBay, -210 to win 2u W
Phi, -160 2u W
SFo, -147 2u W
StL, -136 2u W
Det, -128 2u L
NYM, +108 1u L
Min, +131 1u W

Added: Col, -110 1u L

[teecee]

Apr. 8th:

afternoon degen plays:

Pitts, +1.5 -130 to win 1u L
StL, -105 2u L

Added:

Wash, +133 1u W
Fla, +102 1u W
Sea, +141 2u L
Cle, +120 1u W
Min, +109 1u W

[teecee]

Apr. 9th:

SFO, +100 1u W
Wash, +124 1u L
Mil, -105 1u L
Pit, +125 1u L
Tor, +119 1u W
Oak, +121 1u W
Min, -101 1u W
K.C., +140 1u W
Phil, -1.5 +105 1u W
ChC, +115 1u L
NYY, -108 1u L

Added:

Phil, -155 1u W

[teecee]

Apr. 10th:

ChC, +108 to win 1u
Wash, +110 1u
Hou, +124 1u NO PLAY
SFo, +112 1u
Cle, +144 1u
Tor, +132 1u

Adding:

K.C., +107 1u
Tam, +138 1u
StL, +127 1u
LAD, +131 1u

[Beastxxx]

Liking
Cubs
Nats
Tor myself
Good Luck

[teecee]

Yeah, Beast, Toronto has had a nice little start. Let's see if they can keep it up for us. I've won 4 straight with San Fran, so I had to go with them at + odds. GL today.

[teecee]

Apr. 11th:

LAD, +105 1u L
ChC, +105 1u L
Tor, +105 1u W
NYY, EV 1u W
CWS, -125 to win 1u W
Bos, -140 to win 2u W
Sea, +135 1u L
Oak, +115 1u W
Mil, +120 1u W

Went against a rule and picked the ChiSox. Ohhh wellll...

[teecee]

Apr. 10th:

ChC, +108 to win 1u W
Wash, +110 1u W
Hou, +124 1u NO PLAY
SFo, +112 1u L
Cle, +144 1u L
Tor, +132 1u W

Adding:

K.C., +107 1u L
Tam, +138 1u L
StL, +127 1u W
LAD, +131 1u L

What a fvcking pathetic showing on Saturday. Wow!

[teecee]

Apr. 12th:

Phi, RL, -130 to win 1u W
StL, RL, +100 1u W
SFo, RL, +130 1u W
K.C./Det, Under 8 -110 to win 1u L
Cle, +115 1u BET OUT
Min, +120 1u W
Oak, +110 1u W
Tor, +118 1u L
ChC, -161 to win 1u W

The Indians have lost 3 straight, so I will play the Rangers. I've also decided to ML my RL plays as well.

Added:
PHI, -265 to win 1u W
STL, -215 to win 2u W
SFo, -160 to win 2u W
TEX, -125 to win 2u W
Det, -183 to win 1u L

It was a very good day overall. Jays lost in a nailbiter, so I can't be too unhappy about that game. The Tigers were a no play, but I just HAD to have 1:05 action, so I played the shit. How stupid...

[teecee]

Apr. 13th:

Cin, +109 1u
NYM, +132 1u
SFo -1.5, +115 1u

K.C., +119 1u
Rays, -123 to win 1u
Oak, -123 to win 2u
Oak -1.5, +130 1u

I really liked the D'back and Angels today, but had to lay off of these teams due to the fact that they are such huge underdogs. While I've been winning at a good clip lately, I haven't exactly been managing things the way I should. It's a long season, and I need to be a bit more conservative, to keep myself in the game.

Added:

D'backs, +153 1u
SFo, -193 to win 2u

[teecee]

Apr. 13th:

Cin, +109 1u W
NYM, +132 1u L
SFo -1.5, +115 1u L

K.C., +119 1u L
Rays, -123 to win 1u W
Oak, -123 to win 2u L
Oak -1.5, +130 1u L


Added:

D'backs, +153 1u L
SFo, -193 to win 2u L

[teecee]

Apr. 14th:

Hoping for a strong comeback today after having lost 8 units on the 13th.

Mil, +125 2u
Cin, +117 1u
Bos, -125 to win 1u
Bos RL, +125 1u
Sea, +100 1u
StL, -215 to win 2u
StL -1.5, -110 to win 1u
SDG, +131 2u
Jays, +109 1u
Det -1.5, 2u

Had to make some adjustments.

[teecee]

Apr. 14th:

Hoping for a strong comeback today after having lost 8 units on the 13th.

Mil, +125 2u L
Cin, +117 1u L
Bos, -125 to win 1u W
Bos RL, +125 1u W
Sea, +100 1u W
StL, -215 to win 2u W
StL -1.5, -110 to win 1u L
SDG, +131 2u L
Jays, +109 1u L
Det -1.5, 2u L

Had to make some adjustments.

[teecee]

Apr. 15th:

Cincinnati, +138 1u L
Boston, +110 1u L
ChiWhiteSox, +106 1u L

Leaning towards a 3-team ML parlay.

St.Louis, Philadelphia, and Colorado; 1u to win 1.9 the opposite woulda freaking rocked. This was a NO PLAY, btw.

I also like the under 7 1/2 in the D'back/Dodger game, but I'll lay off that one, for obvious reasons.

Added:

L.A.Dodgers, -120 to win 1u
Cleveland, +100 1u W
Colorado -1.5, +100 1u L

Today was quite sucky!!

[teecee]

Apr. 15th:

Cincinnati, +138 1u L
Boston, +110 1u L
ChiWhiteSox, +106 1u L


Added:

L.A.Dodgers, -120 to win 1u W
Cleveland, +100 1u W
Colorado -1.5, +100 1u L

[teecee]

see below post.

[teecee]

Apr. 16th:

Colorado, +123 1u
San Diego, -101 1u
San Francisco, +133 1u
Cincinnati, -101 1u
Washington, +140 1u

Toronto, -105 1u

NYY, -201 to win 1u
NYY -1.5, -110 to win 1u
Minnesota, -127 to win 2u
Minnesota -1.5, +170 2u

[teecee]

Apr. 16th:

Colorado, +123 1u L
San Diego, -101 1u W
San Francisco, +133 1u L
Cincinnati, -101 1u L
Washington, +140 1u W

Toronto, -105 1u L

NYY, -201 to win 1u W
NYY -1.5, -110 to win 1u W
Minnesota, -127 to win 2u W
Minnesota -1.5, +170 2u W

[teecee]

Apr. 17th:

Washington, +140 1u W
Florida, +103 1u W
NYMets, +100 1u W
Pittsburgh, +128 1u W
Atlanta, +107 1u L
San Diego -1.5, +160 1u W

Toronto, -101 2u L
Cleveland, +112 1u W
Tampa Bay, +125 1u W
Seattle, +123 1u W