Monday's Front Page Picks (Sep 10)

Willie Bee · 09-10-07, 10:50 AM

Devil Rays +155 at Boston Red Sox

Game Time: 09/10/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Scott Spreitzer | sportspic.com

Scott Kazmir has been something of a Red Sox killer while Boston's Curt Schilling has been too inconcistent to be drawing this much chalk. Take Tampa Bay tonight in Boston.

Scott Kazmir has been outstanding in his career at Fenway where he owns an impressive 3.15 ERA and .237 BAA in eight starts. He's fared even better in his two starts at this venue in 2007.

Meanwhile, the BoSox have dropped four of Curt Schilling's last six starts, including both of his last two. His last four home starts definitely don't warrant this big of a price, especially against Kazmir. In those four home outings, Schilling has allowed 17 earned runs and 37 base runners in just 22 IP. That's a poor 6.95 ERA & 1.68 WHIP.

Tampa Bay is playing their best baseball of the season, riding into Boston on a 12-4 run. As you can see, this price is based squarely on public perception. We'll look to take advantage with the dog. Tampa Bay is the play on Monday.

Free Pick: Devil Rays +155

Willie Bee · 09-10-07, 10:52 AM

Phillies & Rockies Over 10½ (-110)

Game Time: 09/10/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Scott Rickenbach | playbook.com

Two pitches prone to getting into jams and pitching in a hitter's paradise makes the Over an easy play this evening when the Philadelphia Phillies host the Colorado Rockies.

The Rockies ended up in a rare pitcher's duel in yesterday's 4-2 final at home. Now they travel from one hitter's park to another as they head east to Philly for this one. Citizens Bank Park was the site of yesterday's 8-5 Phillies win as the runs continue to light up the scoreboard in most games in Phildelphia.

The Phillies are trying to hang around in the playoff chase and Kyle Lohse has actually been surprisingly helpful in that regard since he came over from Cincinnati. However, he did have to be something of a Houdini in his most recent outing as he pitched out of a bases loaded, no outs jam with allowing just one run against the Braves. As impressive as Lohse has been in getting out of trouble, it's going to catch up with him at some point. He is simply not an overpowering pitcher and he's facing a Rockies offense that is also fully intent on staying in the playoff race.

The problem for Colorado is that they also have a questionable pitcher on the mound tonight. Ubaldo Jimenez has shown some flashes of talent since coming up to the big club but he also struggles at times, too. He is known to make some mistakes that end up in the seats and that's exactly what he did in his most recent outing against the Giants. San Francisco got to him for seven hits, including two homers, in just five innings of work. Things won't get any easier for Jimenez as he now pitches in a pressure-packed situation in a bandbox of a ballpark.

Let's also not forget that the Phillies lineup is one of the most dangerous in the National League. Play Over the total in Philadelphia as a regular selection.

Free Pick: Rockies-Phillies Over 10½ (-110)

Willie Bee · 09-10-07, 10:54 AM

Mariners (-115) vs Oakland A's

Game Time: 09/10/2007 10:05 PM -
By: Michael Alexander | 10starpicks.com

Both teams are struggling a bit, but Seattle is at home with Horacio Ramirez who is 6-1 in his home park this season. Make your play on the Mariners when they host the Athletics.

The Oakland A's start a three-game series with the Seattle Mariners looking to put an end to Seattle's season. The A's have been struggling however as they lost their third game in a row yesterday and six of their last eight overall. Oakland currently sits at 69-75 overall 15½ games in back of the front running Angels.

Tonight the A's will face Seattle left-hander Horacio Ramirez who will be making his 19th start of the season. Oakland has lost money versus lefties this year and they will be going up against a tough one. Ramirez is a almost unbeatable 6-1 at home this season and has a sprakling 3.17 ERA over his last three.

Seattle, once in the thick of the AL West Division lead, have fallen way off the pace losing 11 of their last 13 putting them eight games out of first and five games out of the AL Wild Card.

The A's will throw right-hander Joe Blanton at the Mariners tonight. Blanton has had problems on the road this year posting a rather high 5.03 ERA. In the two times that he has faced the Mariners this season he is 0-2.

Supporting Angles: Seattle is 12-4 (+11.1 Units) against the moneyline when playing on Monday this season. The Mariners are 21-8 (+12.8 Units) against the moneyline vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. Oakland is 8-17 (-10.4 Units) against the moneyline vs. teams whose hitters strike out six or less times/game in the second half of the season this season.

Although the Mariners have been struggling they are facing a team who has not played all that well either. Seattle is the better team here and because of their recent struggles is giving us good value tonight. I'm taking Seattle in this one.

Free Pick: Mariners -115

Willie Bee · 09-10-07, 10:59 AM

Minnesota Twins, KC Royals Under 9½

Game Time: 09/10/2007 08:10 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Twins and Royals have played some low scoring games against each other lately, with the Under going 9-4 in the last 13 meetings, and tonight should be no different.

The head-to-head series between the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals has been dominated by the Under, as it is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.

Boof Bonser has already made eight starts vs. Kansas City in his brief two-year career, and he has allowed three earned runs or less in five of them with the Under going 6-2. Bonser gets a chance at redemption after getting hit hard by these Royals at Minnesota on September 2, and he did have three Quality Starts vs. Kansas City this year alone prior to that. He is back up by a Minnesota bullpen that ranks fourth in the American League with a 3.83 pen ERA.

Now granted, Royals starter Billy Buckner did not impress in his Major League debut at Texas last week. However, he may have an improved outing here at home now that the butterflies are out of the way, and he is catching a suspect Twins offense here. Also, the Kansas City bullpen has come a long way since early in the year, currently sporting a respectable 3.94 collective ERA.

Finally, both of these teams have been Under-friendly as a whole this season, as it is 72-10-11 in all Minnesota games and an even better 76-58-8 in all Kansas City contests.

Free Pick: Twins, Royals Under 9½ (-115)

Willie Bee · 09-10-07, 11:00 AM

Milwaukee Brewers (-130) at Pittsburgh Pirates

Game Time: 09/10/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Dave Cokin | playbook.com

Milwaukee has moved back into first place in the NL Central and they have the pitching advantage tonight in Pittsburgh. Back the Brewers on the road against the Pirates.

One player can make all the difference in the world. Just ask the Brewers, who still have a great shot at the playoffs now that ace Ben Sheets has returned to action.

The confidence level of the team is clearly higher with their #1 in the active rotation. Also helping out is Carlos Villanueva, who's finally getting a chance to firm up the back of the rotation and who pitched very well his last time out. Villanueva is much preferred to Tony Armas who gets the call for the Pirates in this Monday night contest.

With the Milwaukee bats finally heating up again, this is a decent enough spot to lay a reasonable price on the road. The Brewers are the choice.

Free Pick: Brewers -130