Wednesday's Front Page Plays (Sep 5)

[Willie Bee]

Washington Nationals (-117) versus Florida Marlins

Game Time: 09/05/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

It might be a battle of the bottom two teams in the AL East, but the series is being played under a playoff atmosphere. Nab the Nationals at home against the Marlins.

Our Wednesday night MLB selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Florida Marlins at RFK Stadium in the nation's capital.

Lest you think this series between the fourth and fifth place teams in the NL East doesn't mean anything to these franchises, think again. Neither the Nats nor the Marlins wants to finish in the cellar of the division at year's end. For the Marlins, there is pride at stake for a team that only four years ago won it all, and for the Nats, because they were expected to finish dead last in the National League, there is almost a playoff atmosphere for the team and their fans if they can stay out of the basement of the NL East, which right now they have managed to do (by two games as of Tuesday night).

Florida's young right-hander Sergio Mitre looked like one of the best young pitchers in the league earlier this year, but the bottom fell out all of a sudden and he has been simply horrific of late. The Marlins have lost Mitre's last four starts and he has given up a minimum of five runs in each of those outings.

Tim Redding on the other hand has some what resurrected his career this season in Washington. Despite losing his last two, Redding has been very solid for Washington with a 3.27 ERA in his 11 starts. And the Nationals have a winning record in Redding's seven home starts (4-3). Take the Nationals.

Free Pick: Nationals -117

[Willie Bee]

Play Indians (-120) at Twins


Game Time: 09/05/2007 01:10 PM -
By: Scott Spreitzer | sportspic.com

Fausto Carmona has been brilliant under the sun this season as well as strong in his starts against the Twins. Chalk this one up to the Cleveland Indians today in Minnesota.

I'm playing the Cleveland Indians with Fausto Carmona over the Minnesota Twins and Scott Baker. We have one of 2007's best afternoon hurlers against one of the luckiest.

Carmona is 8-1 in 11 daytime starts, averaging just a shade under seven innings per start. In fact, he owns a strong 2.11 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Meanwhile, Baker is 3-0 in six day starts this season, but he's allowed 19 earned runs and 56 baserunners in just 35 IP. That's a 4.89 ERA & 1.60 WHIP, to go along with a horrible .331 BAA!

What it all means is that Baker has been getting enormous help in day starts. But that's not likely to be the case here. Not only does Carmona own the strong day numbers mentioned above, but he's been spectacular in three starts against the Twins this season, sporting a 1.14 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and .183 BAA. Talent wins out over luck on Wednesday. The Indians get the money.

Free Pick: Indians -120

[Willie Bee]

Indians and Twins Under 8½

Game Time: 09/05/2007 01:10 PM -
By: Michael Alexander | 10starpicks.com

Cleveland's Fausto Carmona and Minnesota's Scott Baker hooked up in a 1-0 duel one month ago. Look for more of the same with the Under the right play in the Indians, Twins contest.

The Cleveland Indians look to put even more distance between them and the second place Detroit Tigers in the final game of their three-game set with the Minnesota Twins. The Indians have been red hot winning 12 of their last 14 and opening up a seven game lead in the AL Central.

The Indians will send right-hander Fausto Carmona to the hill who will be making his 14th road start of the season. Carmona has been very effective on the road with a sparkling 2.86 ERA while the Under has been a profitable 8-3. In his career versus the Twins, Carmona is 2-1 with an even better 1.57 ERA with the under going 2-1.

The Twins, who are just about out of any playoff hopes, look to at least avoid the sweep today. Minnesota has turned stone cold losing seven of their last nine ball games while producing only 3.4 runs per game over their last seven. Today they will be sending their own right-hander to the hill in Scott Baker who has been even more effective than Carmona producing a 2.08 ERA over his last three. When Baker has taken the hill at home, the Under has been a profitable 7-3 this season. In his start this season against the Indians, Baker pitched eight innings giving up no runs.

Supporting Angles: The Under is 34-21 (+9.6 units) for Cleveland in the second half of this season. Minnesota has played the Under 11-1 (+9.9 Units) as a home underdog of +100 to +125 this season. The Under is 13-4 (+8.5 units) when Baker starts and the total is 8½ to 10 this season.

The last that these two pitchers opposed each other in August, the Twins won 1-0. Expect more of the same today as both pitchers continue to dominate. I'm taking the Under in this one.

Free Pick: Indians-Twins Under 8½

[Willie Bee]

Kansas City Royals (+127) at Texas Rangers

Game Time: 09/05/2007 08:05 PM -
By: Rocky Atkinson | rocketmansports.com

With Texas throwing Vincente Padilla (4-9, 6.36) tonight, Kansas City as great value as the underdog in this contest. Play the Royals on the road at the Rangers.

Kansas City is 7-1 this year as a road underdog of +100 to +125. Texas is only hitting .259 overall this year and .261 against right-handed starters this season.

Texas starter Vincente Padilla is 4-9 with a 6.36 ERA overall this year. Padilla is 0-1 with a 7.27 ERA overall vs Kansas City since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Kansas City tonight.

Free Pick: Royals +127