For all you number people

Q · 03-07-10, 01:48 PM

I will make my plays off of all the data i have collected.

acarmelo1 · 03-07-10, 01:53 PM

Put in (Average of Hits per game)

TodaysAction · 03-07-10, 01:55 PM

Originally posted by Q

I am going to make an excel sheet containing every team. and update every night. I was trying to figure out what stats to put on there. Please let me know what stats you use day in day out.. If you all would like a copy after it is finished for those that help i will send you a copy..

I use a family formula with many components and each having a different amount of weight for the equation. Some of the things I use include, the starting pitcher, bullpen effectiveness, slugging percentage verses the opposing starter plus many others. If nobody else chimes in, here's something you can/should do - record all the stats from the games. Start to look at what the winning and losing teams have in common and go from there.

acarmelo1 · 03-07-10, 02:02 PM

This is hard because you can not use last years stats to compare since most players have changed teams.

Q · 03-07-10, 02:08 PM

I am going to collect data from the first week and start from there maybe from the first 2 weeks..

Willie Bee · 03-07-10, 04:16 PM

If you're going to use it as a wagering aid, you will obviously need ML prices and totals (opening and closing for both wagers). After that, you're sorta' on your own.

I keep two files running during a season, one on umpires and one broken down by team with results for starting pitchers. The umpire file denotes Home-Visitor results and totals, which you can actually get from SBRforum.com (LINK). I augment that with added notes from the games I watched as to the HP ump's strike zone.

For the starting pitchers, the moneyline (open and close) plus the total (open and close) are listed for a starting pitcher in each of his outings. Extra info includes the opposing team and starter plus another stat I keep close to the vest.

frankbettor · 03-07-10, 11:22 PM

Get this eBook. All the relevant data you are currently trying to compile has already been done for you. Seems like a waste of time to do what others have already produced?

Good luck either way.

palmyjin · 03-07-10, 11:27 PM

good stuff. hope the data is available for everyone.

therber2 · 03-07-10, 11:47 PM

Originally posted by TodaysAction

I use a family formula with many components and each having a different amount of weight for the equation. Some of the things I use include, the starting pitcher, bullpen effectiveness, slugging percentage verses the opposing starter plus many others. If nobody else chimes in, here's something you can/should do - record all the stats from the games. Start to look at what the winning and losing teams have in common and go from there.

TA is right I think. The best way is to combine systems and factors with adjusted weights. Give each team a rating that you come up with and take the difference. That should roughly determine bet size.

OP: could you track ML's and game totals? I think what would help a lot of people is to see a team's 3 day game total avg. 12 day game total avg., season, and MLB whole game total avg. I was planning on doing this in combination with innings with run scored/innings played. (Already have that one going).

ScreaminPain · 03-08-10, 01:48 PM

Originally posted by frankbettor

Get this eBook. All the relevant data you are currently trying to compile has already been done for you. Seems like a waste of time to do what others have already produced?

Good luck either way.

LInk not working for me.....any substitute? I'm very interested in the analytical aspects of MLB capping.

EXhoosier10 · 03-08-10, 01:58 PM

I like looking at bullpens (I also check to see if either the closer or top set-up guys are unavailable), SP, I don't think i've ever bet on a pitcher when it is his first start, % of innings scored in too.

Lemme know if you need help, I will have my own spreadsheet going throughout the season. It will probably be ever-changing throughout the first couple of weeks until I can find the right websites to scrape from, but it should be revised quickly.

Q · 03-08-10, 09:27 PM

site not working please re post.

ciscothinker · 03-08-10, 11:23 PM

please repost! thanks

therber2 · 03-09-10, 11:59 AM

could you track ML's and game totals? I think what would help a lot of people is to see a team's 3 day game total avg. 12 day game total avg., season, and MLB whole game total avg. I was planning on doing this in combination with innings with run scored/innings played. (Already have that one going).

Q · 03-09-10, 01:15 PM

kinda wanting to see the link that dude posted!!!!

EXhoosier10 · 03-09-10, 04:39 PM

Originally posted by therber2

could you track ML's and game totals? I think what would help a lot of people is to see a team's 3 day game total avg. 12 day game total avg., season, and MLB whole game total avg. I was planning on doing this in combination with innings with run scored/innings played. (Already have that one going).

Are you talking about "3 day game total" for innings scored (total and %)?