totals did great today

[curious]

Atlanta Florida OVER 10 1/2 WON
Yankees Detroit OVER 10 1/2 WON
Tampa Bay UNDER 9 1/2 WON
Mets OVER 11 at least a push

still left to play Oakland Toronto UNDER 8

[BatemanPatrickl]

Nice job Curious!

[WestsidePete]

you're getting on a good roll..good job

[ShowMeDaMoney]

i dont bet totals enough, i have a hard enough time betting on teams totals are hard for me to calculate\guess

[curious]

i dont bet totals enough, i have a hard enough time betting on teams totals are hard for me to calculate\guess

Here is how I do it:
For the OVER
1. use espn.com and go to stats, then team batting, then use last 7 days split.
2. Take the top 10 teams in runs scored per game over last 7 days.
3. Do the same for pitching, but get the WORST 10 teams in ERA last 7 days.
4. Take the schedule and for each game give each team a + 1 if they are in the top 10 teams in runs scored last 7 games, and a +1 if they are in the top 10 in the worst teams in ERA last 7 games.
5. Add up the +1s for each game.
6. Any game that the +1s = 4 is a big bet on the OVER.

Here is an example from a couple of weeks ago. The Reds average runs per game last 7 days was over 7. The cubs average runs per game last 7 days was over 6.5. Both teams ERA last 7 days was over 6.5. This game was pegged as a definite OVER. It won.

NOTE** Be careful with teams like the Rockies that score a lot at home but not a lot on the road. Check to see if the last 7 days were home or away games and if the next game is home or away, if it is away see if that park is a hitter's park or a pitcher's park. Teams that are in hitters parks run hot and cold depending on whether they are playing at home or away, and if the away game is also a hitter's park.

For the UNDER:
Do the same as 1 - 6 above but the matchup you want now is the WORST 10 teams in runs scored per game the last 7 days and the BEST 10 teams in ERA last 7 days.

After you give each team that is in the worst runs scored per game list or the best ERA list a +1, and find the games that the total of the +1s adds up to 4, you have found a definite UNDER.

This method is extremely accurate.

I noticed that the more I go with my first reaction and the less I ANALyze the game, the more accurate this approach is.

Only thing I would add, given that the end of summer is approaching and some parks will take on different hitting / pitching characteristics due to changes in humidity/weather/etc, is I would use the park adjustment factor for time of year for certain parks.

Do not CHEAT!! Do not justify using a game that is a +3 or a +2 because you "like" the OVER/UNDER for that game.

The other way I find OVER/UNDER games is to look at starting pitching matchup and runs scored per game, if both starting pitchers have extremely low ERAs their last 3 starts and one of the teams is having trouble scoring runs lately AND the expected relief pitchers for the current game are red hot, then I use the starting pitchers to justify the UNDER. This is also very effective.

NOTE** this method does not work for the OVER, because a bad pitcher can have a good day anytime, but red hot pitchers don't have bad days very often.