Friday's Front Page Picks (Aug 24)

[Willie Bee]

Marlins +120 at Cincinnati Reds

Game Time: 08/24/2007 07:10 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Dontrelle Willis appears to have straightened himself out somewhat, while Aaron Harang comes is off of a couple of shaky outings. Make the Marlins your play as a dog.

The Florida Marlins put an emphatic end to their eight-game losing streak last night with an 11-3 drubbing of the St. Louis Cardinals, and we look for their newfound success to continue tonight as a road underdog vs. the Cincinnati Reds.

The Marlins have enjoyed visiting the Queen City, as they are 9-4 in the last 13 head-to-head meetings here in Cincinnati. Sure, Dontrelle Willis has been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball, but he has been pitching much better lately. Willis has four Quality Starts in his last five starts, and he allowed just four eared runs in the other outing.

Now Aaron Harang may be 12-3 with a 3.67 ERA overall, but his current form leaves much to be desired. He was touched up for six earned runs on nine hits in 6.2 innings by the Milwaukee Brewers in his last start, this coming on the heels of an outing against the Chicago Cubs where he allowed five earned runs in seven innings. Perhaps most importantly, Harang was hit hard by the Marlins right here in this stadium the last time he faced them, surrendering five earned runs and nine hits while lasting only four innings.

The bottom line here is that these starters are heading in opposite directions lately, making Willis very appealing as an underdog in this spot.

Free Pick: Marlins +120

[Willie Bee]

Back Braves (-135) at Cardinals

Game Time: 08/24/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

Albert Pujols has started to swing a mean stick for the Cardinals who are battling in the NL Central. But the Braves have their veteran right-hander John Smoltz on the hill tonight. Play Atlanta.

Our Friday night MLB selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals are involved in what is probably the best pennant race in all of baseball in the NL Central with the Cubs and Brewers. As Albert Pujols goes, so go the Cards. And right now there are few players hotter than Pujols and few teams hotter than St. Louis.

After 'only' getting 16 homers before the All Star break -- a low number for Pujols -- he has caught fire and hit a round tripper in five of his last six games. He already has 14 for the second half, thus ensuring that he will once again have a 30-homer season, just as he has done in every year since he came up in 2001.

But Atlanta's right-handed ace John Smoltz is also a very hot pitcher right now, and he has lost only once to the Cards since 1999. Smoltz beat another hot team and division leader in the Arizona Diamondbacks in his last start, arguably his best of the year, in which he went eight innings (something he doesn't do much anymore) and striking out a season-high 12 batters.

The Cards are a dismal 6-16 in games that have been started by right-hander Kip Wells who is on the mound tonight for this one. The Braves are one of the few teams in the majors with a winning record on the road as well as at home. Take Atlanta.

Free Pick: Braves -135

[Willie Bee]

Philadelphia Phillies -108 vs Padres

Game Time: 08/24/2007 07:05 PM -
By: Scott Spreitzer | sportspic.com

He might be headed for the Hall of Fame eventually, but San Diego's Greg Maddux has struggled this year on the road. Play the Philadelphia Phillies at home versus the Padres.

I'm playing the Phillies on Friday. Philadelphia rocks right-handers in home night games for almost six runs per game. Tonight, they'll face Greg Maddux, making his first start at Citizens Bank Park.

The future Hall-of-Famer has struggled a bit on the road this year. In fact, the Padres have lost his last four starts away from Petco. They're also 3-9 in his last 12 on the road.

Meanwhile, the Phillies are 7-3 in Jamie Moyer's 10 home starts this season. He's been especially tough as of late. In his last five home starts, the veteran southpaw has allowed just nine earned runs and 33 base runners in 32.1 IP. That adds up to a strong, 2.51 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.

The Friars are a sub-.500 squad in road night games against lefties and I expect another tough night on Friday. We'll back the Phillies with Moyer.

Free Pick: Phillies -108

[Willie Bee]

Smoltz, Braves -135 at Cardinals

Game Time: 08/24/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Michael Alexander | 10starpicks.com

This series should take on a playoff atmosphere with both the Braves and Cardinals desperate for wins. Back Atlanta tonight behind John Smoltz on the mound in St. Louis.

The Atlanta Braves roll into St. Louis after losing three of four to the Cincinnati Reds. The Braves, in the hunt for most of the season, have nowfallen six games off the pace in the NL East and currently sit in third place at 66-62. The Braves are only 2-7 in their last nine overall.

Tonight, however, they throw one of their bright spots on the season in veteran right-hander John Smoltz who is having a fine season with an 11-6 mark and a very good 3.05 ERA. On the road, Smoltz is 5-2 with a 3.53 ERA and will be facing a St. Louis club who is only 39-40 versus right-handers.

The St. Louis Cardinals, long left for dead, have climbed back into the race for the top spot in the mediocre NL Central. The Cardinals are below .500 at 61-63, but sit only three games out of first. St. Louis lost last night but has won eight of their last 11.

In the first game of this series the Cardinals will send veteran hurler Kip Wells to the hill. Wells has not been stellar this season sporting a 2-5 mark at home while his team is only 3-7 in his 10 home starts. That is going to spell trouble against a Braves team who is a very good 43-31 versus right-handed starters.

Supporting Angles: Atlanta is 22-14 (+8.0 Units) against the moneyline in road games against right-handed starters this season. Wells is 8-22 (-15.1 Units) against the moneyline after giving up two or more home runs in his last outing since 1997. Wells is 3-18 (-15.1 Units) against the moneyline vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season over the last three seasons.

Both teams are in the hunt for a playoff spot so this one gets down to the pitching matchup. We have a far superior one on the hill for the Braves tonight. I'm taking the Braves in this one.

Free Pick: Braves -135

[Willie Bee]

Cash Athletics (+119) at Devil Rays

Game Time: 08/24/2007 07:10 PM -
By: Nelly's Sportsline | playbook.com

With Oakland's offense coming to life lately and the team sporting a 6-1 record in lefty Lenny DiNardo's last seven starts, the Athletics are the play tonight in Tampa vs the Devil Rays.

The A's are 6-1 in Lenny DiNardo's last seven starts and the Oakland offense is posting strong numbers in recent weeks.

In their last 10 games, Oakland is averaging close to five runs per game, a vast improvement over certain parts of the season for the A's. Tampa Bay is hitting just .186 as a team in their last 10 games while scoring just over two runs per game. Oakland is 8-2 in the last 10 games while Tampa is still holding the worst record in baseball.

Right-hander James Shields is enjoying a strong year for the Devil Rays but he is a bit overvalued based on his strong start to the season. The Rays are just 4-9 in his last 13 starts.

Free Pick: Athletics +119

[Willie Bee]

Braves -135 at St. Louis Cardinals

Game Time: 08/24/2007 08:10 PM -
By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

The Braves head into this series opener against the Cardinals with their ace John Smoltz on the hill. Back Atlanta this evening in St. Louis who will counter with Kip Wells.

The Braves open a weekend series in St. Louis behind John Smoltz who has cashed in 12 of his last 15 August starts.

The Braves' veteran right-hander is having another strong season with an 11-6 record and 3.05 ERA in 24 starting assignments. He is coming off an 8-inning performance in his last outing when he struck out 12 and helped Atlanta to a 6-2 win over a tough Arizona Diamondbacks team.

With Smoltz in commanding KW form -- 3 walks and 16 strikeouts in his last three road starts -- and St. Louis' Kip Wells just 6-16 in his team starts this season, look for the Redbirds to dip to 6-15 in home series openers here tonight.

Free Pick: Braves -135

[Willie Bee]

Twins, Orioles Under 7½ (-115)

Game Time: 08/24/2007 07:05 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Tonight’s matchup between the Twins and Orioles features two excellent starting pitchers and two struggling offenses. That sounds like a perfect recipe for an Under here.

We are anticipating a pitchers’ duel when Johan Santana and the Minnesota Twins square off with Jeremy Guthrie and the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards tonight.

Santana is coming off of one of the best-pitched games by anyone in baseball this year, as he pitched eight scoreless innings vs. Texas while recording an amazing 17 strikeouts and allowing just two hits. The two-time Cy Young Award winner now has nine Quality Starts in his last 10 outings.

Guthrie recovered from a couple of sub-par outings vs. a couple of good offenses (Yankees, Mariners) to limit the Toronto Blue Jays to two runs and only three hits in eight innings in his last start. Guthrie has a 3.44 ERA with an excellent 1.11 WHIP in 146.2 innings this season, and he should be particularly difficult on a struggling Minnesota lineup that has never faced him before.

The Twins are batting a modest .246 vs. right-handed pitchers over the last 10 games, while the Orioles have been even worse vs. left-handers during this same period hitting .236 against them, so runs should be at a premium tonight.

Free Pick: Twins, Orioles Under 7½ (-115)

[Willie Bee]

Pittsburgh Pirates (-110) at Houston Astros

Game Time: 08/24/2007 08:05 PM

By: Joe Gavazzi | thegreengorilla.com

The Pirates have been plating runs at a high rate in August, and they have right-hander Ian Snell on the mound who spanked the Astros in Houston earlier this season.

No one has been hitting the leather off the ball more than the Pirates in the month of August. In 20 games this month they have scored 145 runs for nearly 7.3 RPG.

Expect that output to continue tonight against the Astros’ Matt Albers. He has a 6.14 ERA this year showing no signs of solid current form.

After a solid first three months, Pirates starter Ian Snell hit the wall in July. Earlier this month, however, he worked hard to improve his pitch location. He has pitched much better in August including three walks and 17 strikeouts in his two most recent starts vs. the big bats of the Phillies and Mets.

Free Pick: Pirates -110

[Willie Bee]

Athletics +119 at Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Game Time: 08/24/2007 07:10 PM

By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

The Athletics are making another one of their patented second half runs with nine wins in their last 11 games. Back Oakland tonight when they trave east to play the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Oakland has caught fire winning nine of their last 11 games. The A's are 15-5 in their last 20 games played on Astroturf. In their last 66 games vs. AL East opponents, the A's are a money-making 45-21. Oakland has won Lenny DiNardo's last four starts.

Tampa Bay is 4-15 in their last 19 games vs. a left-handed starter. In their last 54 games overall they are 15-39. Tampa is 4-9 in James Shields' last 13 starts. In the last 77 meetings between the clubs, the Devil Rays are is 21-56. The red hot A's will take Game 2 in this series. Play on the A's.

Free Pick: Athletics +119

[Willie Bee]

Texas Rangers +119 vs Mariners

Game Time: 08/24/2007 08:35 PM -
By: Tom Freese | sportspic.com

Texas is 3-1 in the four starts right-hander Kevin Millwood has made against Seattle this season. Ride the Rangers as home underdogs in tonight's contest against the Mariners.

Texas starter Kevin Millwood has been pitching very well of late allowing just 10 runs total in his last four starts. Millwood is 3-1 in four team starts against the Mariners this year.

Seattle starter Felix Hernandez is off a phony win in his last start where he allowed twice as many baserunners as innings pitched. Hernandez is 2-6 with a 5.44 ERA in eight career team starts against the Rangers, including going 1-3 at Texas with a 9.15 ERA. Play on Texas (Millwood vs. Hernandez).

Free Pick: Rangers +119