1-0, +1.00 Thursday.
3* Red Sox +112 (Game 1): Wrong team favored. John Lackey's 1-5 with a 5.75 ERA, 1.86 WHIP and .326 BAA in his career against Boston, and 1-3, 6.68, 1.94, .343 in his career at Fenway. Manny and Ortiz are a combined 17/44 (.386) with 5 HR and 18 RBI against Lackey, and the Halos are just 4-12 in their last 16 games at Fenway. At this price there would be value with the Sox with an ordinary pitch on the hill, and Clay Buchholz, in my opinion the premier pitching prospect in baseball, is no ordinary pitcher. Buchholz's combined numbers in the minors this season between AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket: 8-3, 2.15 ERA, 117 IP, 78 H, 164 K. I've seen him pitch on several occasions, and his stuff is comparable to Lincecum; mid-high 90s fastball, sharp 12:6 curveball and a changeup that may very well be his best and most effective pitch.
1* Braves +140: Brandon Webb's current 30-inning scoreless streak is impressive, but the streak has only inflated this line, adding to the value with Atlanta as a substantial home dog. Webb's last four games have come against the Marlins, Padres, Nationals and a struggling LAD offense, all teams that are inferior offensively to the Braves. Cormier's struggled mightily, but against a mediocre Arizona offense that's only hitting .237 on the road, he's more than capable of pitching well and keeping the game competitive.
1* Astros +195: With their offense, SD shouldn't be laying this much wood, even with Peavy on the hill. Woody Williams has pitched better of late, and I'll take my chances with the Stros at this generous price.
1* Mariners Team Total OVER 5 -110: Jose Contreras has been impressive in his 2 bullpen outings since being removed from the rotation, but for the better part of the last 2 months he's been the worst pitcher in baseball. In his last 6 starts, Contreras is 0-6 with a 12.09 ERA. In that span, he's allowed 57 H in 32 IP and given up fewer than 6 runs once (5 against the O's on 7/15).
1* Brewers -122: Cheap price for the Brewers at home. Milwaukee's struggling, but they're still one of the best home teams in the league, while Cincy's one of the worst road teams. Suppan's been much better at home (5-2, 3.91), and Milwaukee has a significant bullpen advantage.
3* Red Sox +112 (Game 1): Wrong team favored. John Lackey's 1-5 with a 5.75 ERA, 1.86 WHIP and .326 BAA in his career against Boston, and 1-3, 6.68, 1.94, .343 in his career at Fenway. Manny and Ortiz are a combined 17/44 (.386) with 5 HR and 18 RBI against Lackey, and the Halos are just 4-12 in their last 16 games at Fenway. At this price there would be value with the Sox with an ordinary pitch on the hill, and Clay Buchholz, in my opinion the premier pitching prospect in baseball, is no ordinary pitcher. Buchholz's combined numbers in the minors this season between AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket: 8-3, 2.15 ERA, 117 IP, 78 H, 164 K. I've seen him pitch on several occasions, and his stuff is comparable to Lincecum; mid-high 90s fastball, sharp 12:6 curveball and a changeup that may very well be his best and most effective pitch.
1* Braves +140: Brandon Webb's current 30-inning scoreless streak is impressive, but the streak has only inflated this line, adding to the value with Atlanta as a substantial home dog. Webb's last four games have come against the Marlins, Padres, Nationals and a struggling LAD offense, all teams that are inferior offensively to the Braves. Cormier's struggled mightily, but against a mediocre Arizona offense that's only hitting .237 on the road, he's more than capable of pitching well and keeping the game competitive.
1* Astros +195: With their offense, SD shouldn't be laying this much wood, even with Peavy on the hill. Woody Williams has pitched better of late, and I'll take my chances with the Stros at this generous price.
1* Mariners Team Total OVER 5 -110: Jose Contreras has been impressive in his 2 bullpen outings since being removed from the rotation, but for the better part of the last 2 months he's been the worst pitcher in baseball. In his last 6 starts, Contreras is 0-6 with a 12.09 ERA. In that span, he's allowed 57 H in 32 IP and given up fewer than 6 runs once (5 against the O's on 7/15).
1* Brewers -122: Cheap price for the Brewers at home. Milwaukee's struggling, but they're still one of the best home teams in the league, while Cincy's one of the worst road teams. Suppan's been much better at home (5-2, 3.91), and Milwaukee has a significant bullpen advantage.
