Thursday's Front Page Plays (Aug 16)

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  • Willie Bee
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-14-06
    • 15726

    #1
    Thursday's Front Page Plays (Aug 16)
    Bonds & Lincecum to lead Giants +140

    Game Time: 08/16/2007 07:35 PM -
    By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

    Tim Lincecum has lived up to the hype, with a nice 3.41 ERA and 1.07 WHIP on the road and 121 strikeouts in 111.1 innings overall. Conversely, Chuck James has been very inconsistent, and he has a 6.75 ERA in his last three starts. Look for Barry Bonds & Co. to support Lincecum by scoring enough runs to post the upset in this spot.

    The Atlanta Braves have taken the first two games of a three-game series with the San Francisco Giants, but we feel that young Tim Lincecum give the Giants an excellent chance to salvage the final game at some excellent odds here.

    Lincecum may very well be the most highly regarded pitching prospect in all of baseball, and he has certainly shown that he belongs at the Major League level since his recall. Sure, he has had a couple of bumps in the road, such as his stinker of an outing at home vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates last time out. However, we will forgive him that effort after Lincecum had posted eight consecutive Quality Starts prior to Saturday’s outing.

    There are certainly many veterans in the league that would love to have Lincecum’s numbers over his first few months in the league, as he is 6-3 with a 3.88 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, with an amazing 121 strikeouts in 111.1 innings! His numbers are actually slightly better on the road, where he is 3-1 with a 3.41 ERA and an excellent 1.07 WHIP, and he has already post a Quality Start vs. the Braves, allowing two runs on six hits in six innings on July 26.

    Now Atlanta starter Chuck James also showed tons of promise last season, but his 2007 campaign must be considered somewhat of a disappointment. James is barely over .500 at 9-8, and although his ERA is respectable at 3.93, he has been allowing far too many baserunners, as evidenced by his high 1.42 WHIP. Moreover, he had not exactly shown any improvement lately, posting an ugly 6.75 ERA in his last three starts without a Quality Start among them.

    Granted, the Giants have done little offensively lately, but Barry Bonds continues to roll along after hitting career home run number 759 last night. If he could connect again tonight, of if San Francisco could scratch out a few runs off of the erratic James, it could be enough to pull the upset if Lincecum goes back to his form prior to his last start. There is no reason to believe that will not happen.

    Free Pick: Giants +140
  • Willie Bee
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-14-06
    • 15726

    #2
    Lowe, Dodgers -153 vs. Astros

    Game Time: 08/16/2007 10:10 PM -
    By: Marc Lawrence | playbook.com

    Houston's Wandy Rodriguez has posted an 8.16 ERA on the road this season, and that makes the Astros an easy fade when they close out their series with the Dodgers in Los Angeles.

    The Dodgers send Derek Lowe to the hill in the wrap-up of this four-game series against Houston's Wandy Rodriguez.

    One quick look at Rodriguez's 8.16 road ERA (as opposed to his 1.65 home ERA) this season tells us where we want to be. Lowe faced the Astros earlier this season (July 25) in Houston and pitched well but was forced from the game due to a groin injury. Los Angeles eventually lost the game 2-1 on a Carlos Lee home run, and Lowe will want to put forth a winning effort here.

    With Lowe in solid strikeout-to-walk form (two walks and 12 strikeouts in his last three starts), look for the Astros to drop to 2-10 away behind Rodriguez this season here tonight.

    Free Pick: Dodgers -153
    Comment
    • Willie Bee
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 02-14-06
      • 15726

      #3
      Angels and Blue Jays Under 8½

      Game Time: 08/16/2007 07:05 PM -
      By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

      The Under is a strong 15-4-1 in the last 20 meetings between these two squads. And the Under should continue tonight with this pitching matchup in Toronto between the Angels and Blue Jays.

      Yesterday's pitcher's duel (2-1 final score) brought the Under to a perfect 5-0 the last five meetings in this series. Looking back further and we find the Under at a healthy 15-4-1 the last 20 games in this series, including a 9-1 mark the last 10 times the Angels played here in Toronto.

      Both of today's starters are in fine form and we could see another well-pitched affair. Kelvim Escobar has an excellent 1.71 ERA his last three starts, two of which finished below the total. For the season, he has seen the Under go 7-3 on the road and 15-7 overall. Escobar has also pitched very well vs. the Jays over his career, recording a 2.12 ERA while seeing four of five starts stay below the number.

      Meanwhile, Dustin McGowan has a stellar 2.66 ERA his last three starts while seeing the Under go 2-0-1. For the season he has seen the Under go 11-6-1, including 5-2 here at home. Consider a play on the Under.

      Free Pick: Angels-Blue Jays Under 8½
      Comment
      • Willie Bee
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 02-14-06
        • 15726

        #4
        NY Mets, Pirates Over 9½

        Game Time: 08/16/2007 07:05 PM -
        By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

        Two bottom of the rotation starters, Brian Lawrence for New York and Pittsburgh's Tony Armas, make the Over very inviting this evening when the Pirates host the Mets at PNC Park.

        Our Thursday night MLB selection is on the New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates scoring over the total.

        If you were wondering whatever happened to former San Diego Padres right-handed starter Brian Lawrence, then you needn't worry anymore. Lawrence, whose last major league start before his recent stint with the Mets, was almost two years ago is now trying to secure the number five spot in the New York Mets rotation. So far, Lawrence has not done anything to hurt his chances to stay with the Mets so long as Pedro Martinez is out with a shoulder injury.

        His first major league start since September 2005 was in Milwaukee two weeks ago and Lawrence got some great run support as the Mets put up 12 runs to defeat the Brewers. His next start was better than the first, although the Mets lost that game to the Marlins (4-3, Aug 10).

        The Pirates are going to start right-handed veteran Tony Armas who seems to have been around forever even though he is only 29-years-old. Armas is a pitcher who seems to attract large amounts of runs when he pitches. Only one of Armas' last nine starts has failed to reach a total of at least nine runs, that coming back on April 26 against Houston.

        The Over is 10-2-1 in the Mets' last 13 overall and 9-3 in the Pirates' last 12 overall. Take the Over.

        Free Pick: Mets-Pirates Over 9½
        Comment
        • Willie Bee
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 02-14-06
          • 15726

          #5
          Giants, Braves Under 8½ in Atlanta

          Game Time: 08/16/2007 07:35 PM -
          By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

          With a pair of good, young hurlers on the hill, this should be a low-scoring affair in Atlanta. Bet the Under this evening when the Braves host the San Francisco Giants at Turner Field.

          Solid pitching matchup going tonight at Turner Field as the Giants trot out their young phenom Tim Lincecum to duke it out with the Braves' Chuck James.

          James will be in search of his 10th win in this spot, and he's got an excellent shot of picking it up since the Giants have proven to be allergic to lefty pitching all season long (.239 AVG & .369 SLG). That being said, his mates are going to have a heck of a time trying to scratch runs across for him no matter how hot their bats are right now. This Lincecum kid has been flat-out nasty since dropping a couple games back in June. In fact, he just dropped his first bad start in a nine-start span, and I'm looking for him to come back with his filthy stuff and get right back on track.

          In his last three starts, James has struggled giving up four earned runs in each start, but the Giants are exactly the team for him to regain his confidence against. As long as both these guys limit their free passes, this has pitchers' duel written all over it. Both pens rank in the upper half of the league standings in terms of ERA, so hopefully both will be able to protect a lead if there is one late.

          The first two games saw numerous hits for both clubs, but both games landed on nine total runs. This is the best pitching matchup of the series, so don't expect the bats to thrive tonight as this one comes in a tad under this posted number.

          Free Pick: Giants-Braves Under 8½
          Comment
          • Willie Bee
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 02-14-06
            • 15726

            #6
            Pittsburgh Pirates (+117) vs New York Mets

            Game Time: 08/16/2007 07:05 PM -
            By: Nelly's Sportsline | playbook.com

            The Mets have the superior team but still have been unable to win lately at the Pirates' PNC Park. Take Pittsburgh as the underdog tonight at home against New York.

            The Mets have lost seven of their last nine meetings in Pittsburgh and the Pirates have exploded on offense, averaging over seven runs per game in their last 10 games.

            Tony Armas was awful as a starter earlier in the season but he has found his stuff again with great numbers of late. Armas allowed just one run in 11 relief innings in July, and in two starts in August he has allowed just four runs in over 12 innings, picking up two victories.

            Brian Lawrence, New York's starting pitcher this evening, allowed 16 hits in two starts for the Mets after not pitching in the big leagues since 2005. Look for Pittsburgh to surprise the Mets on Thursday.

            Free Pick: Pirates +117
            Comment
            • Willie Bee
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 02-14-06
              • 15726

              #7
              Toronto Blue Jays +115 vs. LA Angels

              Game Time: 08/16/2007 07:07 PM -
              By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

              Kelvim Escobar is certainly having a great year for the Angels, but his ERA is significantly higher on the road, and Dustin McGowan has been lights out lately, so play the Blue Jays at home.

              Now, Kelvim Escobar is certainly having a great season for the Los Angeles Angels, but we also love the way that Dustin McGowan has pitched of late, and we feel he offers nice value as a home underdog here.

              McGowan has reeled off five consecutive Quality Starts, and he has seven such outings in his last nine starts. He also held the opposition scoreless while going at least seven innings in three of those outings. McGowan should be doubly tough on an Angels lineup that has never faced him before.

              Yes, Escobar is 12-6 and is among the league leaders with a 2.74 ERA. That ERA does go up to a more human-like 3.66 on the road however, and he lost his last two starts vs. Toronto while not exactly fooling the Blue Jays hitters, allowing 21 hits in 14 innings.

              Finally, the Toronto bullpen is third in the American League with a 3.51 pen ERA, while the Angels are surprisingly in the bottom half of the league in this category, at 3.90.

              Free Pick: Blue Jays +115
              Comment
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