Blue Jays vs Dodgers World Series Game 4 Tuesday Picks & Betting Data

[SBR Andy]

Game 4 of the World Series goes Tuesday with Los Angeles up 2-1 in the series over Toronto. SBR's Mike Spector shares his best bets for tonight's game in his Blue Jays vs Dodgers Game 4 prediction:

Game prediction: Dodgers -1.5 (+112 via FanDuel)

Over/Under pick: First Five Innings Under 4.5 (-115 via bet365)

"There have been six or fewer total runs scored in six of Los Angeles’ last eight postseason games. Tonight’s starting pitching matchup between Shane Bieber and Shohei Ohtani should produce another pitchers' duel early.

Shohei Ohtani is getting the majority of the attention entering this matchup, given what he did in his last start. He should be in for another excellent outing after pitching to a 2.25 ERA over 12 postseason innings, which followed a stretch of 14 2/3 scoreless innings spanning three starts to finish the regular season.

Ohtani is also one of three Dodgers starters with a career 11.19 K/9 rate or better.

But former Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber should not be overlooked in this matchup. Bieber has already recorded his most strikeouts (eight) in a playoff start this postseason. And since the beginning of 2020, among pitchers with a minimum of 500 innings pitched, he ranks sixth in ERA, sixth in ERA+, third in FIP, and 10th in opponents’ OPS.

I am limiting this wager to the first five innings. Both teams combined to use 17 relievers to eat up 26 innings yesterday, which means both bullpens are likely running on fumes."

Player prop bet: Teoscar Hernandez Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-126 via DraftKings)

"Dodgers slugger Teoscar Hernandez is second on the team in RBIs (12) and total bases (31) this postseason. But Hernandez also has poor career numbers against Bieber, slashing .133/.133/.267 in 15 career at-bats.

While both of Hernandez’s hits against Bieber have gone for extra bases, he has also struck out in 40% of his at-bats. And given that Bieber has held current Dodgers batters to a .197/.222/.413 slash line in 61 combined at-bats, there should not be as much traffic on the basepaths as he is accustomed to when he comes to the plate."

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Sean Tomlinson has his best Blue Jays vs Dodgers Game 4 player prop bets ready to go:

Freddie Freeman Under 1.5 total bases (-135 via Caesars)

"Freeman deserves the applause he's getting after being a playoff hero again, sending a shot deep into the night to end an all-time World Series classic, and what had become nearly two complete baseball games after six hours and 39 minutes.

But don't let that moment of heroism - which came in the 18th inning off the Blue Jays' notoriously weakest reliever, Brendon Little, who was in his second inning of work and seldom pitches more than one frame - mask what has otherwise been a poor postseason by Freeman's sky-high standards.

Freeman enters tonight with a .231 batting average this postseason, significantly below his regular-season output of .295. He's not making consistent contact, and more importantly, his power is lacking too. He's put up a .797 OPS, which is also far under his regular-season mark of .869.

Now he'll face Shane Bieber for likely much of the evening. The once dominant righty has been inconsistent himself, but he's been successful against lefties after allowing an OPS of just .434 against them during the regular season."


Shohei Ohtani Over 6.5 strikeouts (-114 via Caesars)

"Yes, strikeout avoidance and putting the ball in play are central to the Blue Jays' offensive approach. They recorded the second-fewest strikeouts leaguewide during the regular season.

But even the most disciplined offenses have limits. Just ask the Milwaukee Brewers, who sat not too far behind the Blue Jays during the regular season while striking out the fifth fewest times. Yet Ohtani recorded 10 strikeouts against them. It was his second-straight postseason outing with nine-plus strikeouts, with the first coming against the Philadelphia Phillies, who also ranked a respectable 12th throughout the regular campaign in that metric.

The Dodgers carefully built Ohtani back up as a pitcher when he returned to the mound, allowing him to throw five-plus innings just three times across 14 starts. The leash is mostly off during the postseason, though there's still a smidge of hesitancy with this bet due to the events of last night, or rather earlier this morning. Ohtani seems superhuman, but even he may experience fatigue on the mound after such a marathon game."


Teoscar Hernandez to hit a home run (+440 via FanDuel)

"The Teoscar Hernandez experience this postseason means being either white hot or ice cold, and little in between.

He started out with seven hits across the Dodgers' first four postseason games, including three dingers, two of which came in one night. Hernandez then posted one hit over his next 12 at-bats while striking out four times. Then he homered again in the NLCS before going silent for a while once more, this time with one hit across 14 at-bats.

We saw the erupting version of him last night when he tallied four hits, and most notably his fifth homer of the postseason. Now he's well-positioned to sizzle for at least one more night while facing Bieber. Righties have been torching him while posting a .936 OPS. And when he leaves, Bieber will pass the ball to a Blue Jays bullpen that's allowed 14 homers this posteason, which is easily the worst mark during the playoffs and six clear of any other team."

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Shane Jackson shares his Same Game Parlay picks for Blue Jays/Dodgers Game 4:

Over 8 (-110)
Shohei Ohtani Over 17.5 outs (-155)
Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 stolen bases (+450)

Best parlay odds: +1800 via bet365

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Dustin Saracini has two bets for Game 4 posted on the MLB Picks page:

Dodgers -1.5 (-103)

"As much I'd like to see the Blue Jays keep this one close, Ohtani is about to put another mark on one of the most historic postseasons in baseball history. He gets the mound tonight against a Blue Jays lineup that will likely be without George Springer, who really makes that team tick offensively. Toronto might need a miracle tonight."

Under 8 (-109)

"Ohtani-Bieber after an 18-inning game? This has all the makings of an Under. It helps that the Dodgers own just a .248 xBA against Bieber, while Toronto comes in with a .251 xBA vs. Ohtani."

[SBR Andy]

World Series Game 4 betting data from BetMGM:

Most bet props (tickets)
1. Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Home runs +180
2. Shohei Ohtani Over 6.5 Strikeouts -118
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 Home runs +350
4. Shohei Ohtani Under 18.5 Pitcher outs -175
5. Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 Bases +105



World Series Winner Betting

[SBR Andy]

MLB Game 4 betting insights from DraftKings: