Toronto evened the series at 2-2 on Thursday and now we have a pivotal matchup Friday in Seattle. SBR's Josh Goldberg shares his best player prop bets for Blue Jays vs Mariners Game 5:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs (-117 via DraftKings)
"Blue Jays 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is on an otherworldly tear at the plate. After two quiet games in Toronto, he has six hits in his last nine at-bats with two home runs, four runs scored, and two RBIs.
Bryce Miller held Toronto’s bats in check in Game 1, but I have a difficult time seeing that level of success repeating itself. Miller was below average in several key metrics during the regular season, including average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and expected ERA."
Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 strikeouts (-125 via BetMGM)
"The Mariners have the third-highest strikeout rate in the postseason at 28.1%, and it's a bit higher at 28.7% through the first four games of the ALCS. T-Mobile Park was the most pitcher-friendly park during the regular season, and I'm anticipating a sharp outing from Gausman.
Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman has enjoyed pitching in Seattle during his career, registering a 3.44 ERA with 54 strikeouts over 52 1/3 innings (nine appearances)."
Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 RBIs (+156 via DraftKings)
"Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh has dominated Gausman, with four home runs, eight hits, and a staggering 1.703 OPS in 17 career at-bats. He also had a pair of hits, including a game-tying homer off Gausman in Game 1 of the series."
Daulton Varsho to hit a home run (+495 via DraftKings)
"Toronto outfielder Daulton Varsho has only two hits over his last five games (20 at-bats). Despite that, I like his matchup against Miller, who allowed a .556 slugging percentage off his fastball during the regular season.
Varsho had an excellent 15.9% barrel rate during the regular season and slugged an incredible .955 against offspeed pitches. That could serve Varsho well, as Miller has a splitter, a slider, and a knuckle curve in his arsenal."
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs (-117 via DraftKings)
"Blue Jays 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is on an otherworldly tear at the plate. After two quiet games in Toronto, he has six hits in his last nine at-bats with two home runs, four runs scored, and two RBIs.
Bryce Miller held Toronto’s bats in check in Game 1, but I have a difficult time seeing that level of success repeating itself. Miller was below average in several key metrics during the regular season, including average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and expected ERA."
Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 strikeouts (-125 via BetMGM)
"The Mariners have the third-highest strikeout rate in the postseason at 28.1%, and it's a bit higher at 28.7% through the first four games of the ALCS. T-Mobile Park was the most pitcher-friendly park during the regular season, and I'm anticipating a sharp outing from Gausman.
Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman has enjoyed pitching in Seattle during his career, registering a 3.44 ERA with 54 strikeouts over 52 1/3 innings (nine appearances)."
Cal Raleigh Over 0.5 RBIs (+156 via DraftKings)
"Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh has dominated Gausman, with four home runs, eight hits, and a staggering 1.703 OPS in 17 career at-bats. He also had a pair of hits, including a game-tying homer off Gausman in Game 1 of the series."
Daulton Varsho to hit a home run (+495 via DraftKings)
"Toronto outfielder Daulton Varsho has only two hits over his last five games (20 at-bats). Despite that, I like his matchup against Miller, who allowed a .556 slugging percentage off his fastball during the regular season.
Varsho had an excellent 15.9% barrel rate during the regular season and slugged an incredible .955 against offspeed pitches. That could serve Varsho well, as Miller has a splitter, a slider, and a knuckle curve in his arsenal."