SBR's Sean Tomlinson shares his best bets for Game 2 of Dodgers vs Brewers Tuesday at 8:08 PM ET:
Freddy Peralta Over 1.5 earned runs allowed (-118 via DraftKings)
"We're fading at least one aspect of Freddy Peralta's outing as part of our Dodgers vs. Brewers player props.
He posted a 10.4 K/9 during the regular season and has produced 15 strikeouts across two playoff outings thus far, despite struggling otherwise at times. That's why even if you believe, as I do, that the Dodgers will get to him, his 5.5 strikeout total that some of the best MLB betting sites are offering is tough to touch.
Instead, know that even if the Dodgers whiff against Peralta, they'll still do plenty against a hurler who has given up five earned runs across 9 2/3 postseason innings. Those outings came against the also powerful Chicago Cubs, but now Peralta faces a Dodgers lineup that regularly pulverizes righties. Los Angeles sat third in home runs, slugging, and OPS against RHPs throughout the regular season.
Peralta also relies heavily on his fastball while throwing it 53.5% of the time during the regular season, and opposing batters posted a .482 expected slugging against that pitch, according to Baseball Savant."
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 6.5 strikeouts (-130 via FanDuel)
"Yes, Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been a strikeout factory at times this season, largely due to a borderline unhittable split finger that opponents are batting just .136 against.
But we saw him scuffle in the NLDS strikeout-wise and in general against the high-powered Philadelphia Phillies. He finished with just two punchouts during his lone outing in that series, compared to nine in the wild-card round while facing the Cincinnati Reds.
The latter was more in line with Yamamoto's 10.4 K/9 during the regular season. But now he'll need to contend with a Brewers team that puts the ball in play a whole lot while seldom striking out. The Brewers sat third leaguewide with a .258 regular-season batting average, and they struck out the fifth-fewest times."
Freddie Freeman to hit a home run (+572 via DraftKings)
"Freddie Freeman isn't making a ton of contact this postseason while posting a pedestrian .250 batting average. But we care so very little about that here in the year 2025, a time when power and damage are the focus, and Freeman has been doing a lot in that department.
He's posting an .808 OPS while logging an extra-base hit nearly every time he records a knock. The first baseman has tallied seven hits so far during the playoffs, and four have gone for extra bases, most notably a critical two-run shot during a tight Game 1 in the NLCS.
Now he'll spend part of his evening facing off against Peralta, the Brewers' right-hander who's off to a stumbling start this postseason while putting up a 4.66 ERA, which includes giving up three homers during Milwaukee's NLDS against the Cubs.
That continues the long-ball prone ways from Peralta, who allowed 21 dingers during this past regular season and 26 in each of the previous two campaigns. Freeman also tees off on righties after hitting 16 of his 24 homers against them during the regular season with an .874 OPS."
Freddy Peralta Over 1.5 earned runs allowed (-118 via DraftKings)
"We're fading at least one aspect of Freddy Peralta's outing as part of our Dodgers vs. Brewers player props.
He posted a 10.4 K/9 during the regular season and has produced 15 strikeouts across two playoff outings thus far, despite struggling otherwise at times. That's why even if you believe, as I do, that the Dodgers will get to him, his 5.5 strikeout total that some of the best MLB betting sites are offering is tough to touch.
Instead, know that even if the Dodgers whiff against Peralta, they'll still do plenty against a hurler who has given up five earned runs across 9 2/3 postseason innings. Those outings came against the also powerful Chicago Cubs, but now Peralta faces a Dodgers lineup that regularly pulverizes righties. Los Angeles sat third in home runs, slugging, and OPS against RHPs throughout the regular season.
Peralta also relies heavily on his fastball while throwing it 53.5% of the time during the regular season, and opposing batters posted a .482 expected slugging against that pitch, according to Baseball Savant."
Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 6.5 strikeouts (-130 via FanDuel)
"Yes, Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been a strikeout factory at times this season, largely due to a borderline unhittable split finger that opponents are batting just .136 against.
But we saw him scuffle in the NLDS strikeout-wise and in general against the high-powered Philadelphia Phillies. He finished with just two punchouts during his lone outing in that series, compared to nine in the wild-card round while facing the Cincinnati Reds.
The latter was more in line with Yamamoto's 10.4 K/9 during the regular season. But now he'll need to contend with a Brewers team that puts the ball in play a whole lot while seldom striking out. The Brewers sat third leaguewide with a .258 regular-season batting average, and they struck out the fifth-fewest times."
Freddie Freeman to hit a home run (+572 via DraftKings)
"Freddie Freeman isn't making a ton of contact this postseason while posting a pedestrian .250 batting average. But we care so very little about that here in the year 2025, a time when power and damage are the focus, and Freeman has been doing a lot in that department.
He's posting an .808 OPS while logging an extra-base hit nearly every time he records a knock. The first baseman has tallied seven hits so far during the playoffs, and four have gone for extra bases, most notably a critical two-run shot during a tight Game 1 in the NLCS.
Now he'll spend part of his evening facing off against Peralta, the Brewers' right-hander who's off to a stumbling start this postseason while putting up a 4.66 ERA, which includes giving up three homers during Milwaukee's NLDS against the Cubs.
That continues the long-ball prone ways from Peralta, who allowed 21 dingers during this past regular season and 26 in each of the previous two campaigns. Freeman also tees off on righties after hitting 16 of his 24 homers against them during the regular season with an .874 OPS."