AL Wild Card: Tigers vs Guardians Predictions

[SBR Andy]

Two familiar foes face off in the AL Wild Card round as Cleveland hosts Detroit for their 3rd series in 2 weeks.

Who wins the series and punches their ticket to the divisional round? Share your picks and predictions below.

[SBR Andy]

Game 1 Tigers vs Guardians player prob bets from SBR's Shane Jackson:

Tarik Skubal Over 18.5 outs (+150 via bet365)

"Conventional wisdom suggests taking the Under on outs props for starters in the postseason. They will have a shorter leash, with the manager reluctant to let them see the lineup a third time.

However, all that logic goes out the window when talking about the best pitcher in the AL against the worst offense among all playoff teams. We know this because Skubal tossed 13 innings in two postseason starts against Cleveland last year. He threw at least six innings in all three postseason games last October.

The Tigers have to win Game 1 with Skubal on the mound, so I expect them to trust him a bit more on Tuesday."


Angel Martinez Under 0.5 runs (-145 via bet365)

"When betting your Tigers vs. Guardians player props, it’s important to remember that these two teams led all of baseball in pinch-hit at-bats. Both managers like to play matchups, something that will be amplified in a postseason setting.

Angel Martinez typically starts in center field against left-handed pitchers, but he’s a pinch-hit risk when facing a righty. That’s what happened when the Guardians faced Skubal and the Tigers on Sept. 23.

Martinez did score a run in that game, but if I believe in Skubal’s ability to limit the damage, there has to be value in this Under for a platoon outfielder not scoring a run."


Gleyber Torres Over 0.5 walks (+106 via DraftKings)

"Walks can be instrumental in the postseason. That’s why I like taking the plus-money price on Gleyber Torres to earn a free pass, as he leads the team with a 13.5% walk rate this year.

Torres has 85 walks in 145 games this season, but he’s gone five games without one for the longest such streak since early August. Ballpark Pal’s model projects 0.66 walks for Torres on Tuesday, suggesting that walk-less streak could end in Game 1."

[slewfan]

I bet Cleveland today at +145...

Skubal is 2-3 in his last 5 starts.. Meaning what?. I'm not sure.

Good Luck !

[slewfan]

Manny. What were you thinking.?

Go Cubs. Go Yanks.

Chasin' to catch up.

[stevenash]

^
The team FKA as the Indians probably would have won that game if they didn't play with their heads up theirr asses.

Yes, Slew, J-Ram's brain fart on the bases was inexcusable; this isn't Ramierez's first rodeo either, he has plenty of playoff experience, he's been an MVP runner-up, he's been a multiple All-Star, he knows better.
And Martinez's first-inning boot in RF in the first inning was just as bad.

Gavin William deserved better. The kid pitched his balls off and heart out.

[SBR Andy]

Tigers vs Guardians Game 2 player prop bets from SBR's Shane Jackson:

Daniel Schneemann Under 0.5 hits (-106 via DraftKings)

"In my Tigers vs. Guardians player props for Game 1 (2-1, by the way), I reminded readers that these two teams led MLB in pinch-hit at-bats, with neither manager afraid to go to the bench.

We saw that on Tuesday, with Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt using three pinch-hitters and two pinch-runners. Daniel Schneemann was used as a runner, but I expect him to get the start against Detroit righty Casey Mize.

That’s what happened when these two teams met on Sept. 16, with Schneemann getting the start against Mize and going 0-for-3 before being withdrawn."


Casey Mize Over 4.5 strikeouts (-150 via bet365)

"Mize, drafted No. 1 overall by the Tigers in 2018, will get the ball in a series-clinching spot. Fortunately for Detroit, he enters in excellent form, having thrown eight strikeouts in three of his past four starts.

One of those outings came against Cleveland two weeks ago. He threw 15 swinging strikes (matching a season high) across 5 1/3 innings. After watching the Guardians whiff 15 times in Game 1, Mize should have a good game plan to attack this lineup.

I project six strikeouts for Mize in a shorter start, so I’m willing to take this Over 4.5. I also like the Over on 8.5 strikeouts thrown by Tigers’ pitchers, especially at the +115 price tag DraftKings offers."


Parker Meadows Over 0.5 hits (-124 via DraftKings)

"Tigers leadoff batter Parker Meadows went 0-for-3 on Tuesday with two strikeouts and a walk. His poor outing has created some value on his Game 2 props, particularly at DraftKings, where he is -124 to get a hit. FanDuel offers -145 odds for the same ticket.

Meadows recorded 41 hits in 58 games for Detroit this year. A lot of that production came in the final month of the regular season, in which he netted 16 hits in 20 starts. I’ll bank on his recent form at this price tag."

[SBR Andy]

Game 3 Tigers vs Guardians player prop bets from SBR's Shane Jackson:

Chase DeLauter Under 0.5 hits (+119 via DraftKings)

"Chase DeLauter, the Guardians’ No. 2 prospect via MLB Pipeline, became the sixth player ever to make his MLB debut in a playoff game. He started in center field, finishing 0-for-2 with one walk.

DeLauter could get another start today, though I wouldn’t be surprised if Stephen Vogt is quick to make a substitution. This is a tough spot for the rookie, as he hadn’t played since July 11 before Wednesday’s showing."


Kerry Carpenter Over 0.5 hits (-135 via bet365)

"Detroit’s Kerry Carpenter has produced in this series, recording three hits and one run in eight at-bats. This comes after he closed the regular season with four hits in his final six games.

I don’t even need recent form to back Carpenter at this price against a right-handed starter. He has an OPS of .812 against righties this year, which is why bet365’s -135 value is such a bargain. That exact ticket costs as much as -170 at FanDuel."


Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 walks (+180 via bet365)

"The Tigers have been extremely careful when pitching to Jose Ramirez in this series. After all, he’s basically the only good Guardians batter in this lineup that ranks last among all playoff teams in most offensive categories.

Ramirez has earned four walks in two games, which includes three walks in Game 2. Detroit starter Jack Flaherty has posted a walk rate of 8.7% this year, which is right in line with the bullpen’s walk rate (8.8%) behind him.

At +180, I’ll take the chance that Ramirez nets another free pass."