# MLB Thursday, September 4, 2025 — Game Analysis & Best Bets
**Card posted ~9:00am PT.** I cap using pitching form, matchup splits, bullpen context, park/weather, and market movement. Sources cited inline where relevant. Fade/Follow — GL to all
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## TL;DR (Picks & Units)
```
PHI @ MIL — Under 7.5 (1u)
LAD @ PIT — Under 7.0 (1u) | Alt: F5 Under 3.5 (0.5u)
CLE @ TB — Over 8.5 (1u) | Alt: TB TT Over 4.5 (0.5u)
LAA @ KC — Pass — | Lean: LAA +1.5 small
CWS @ MIN — Over 8.5 (1u)
NYY @ HOU — Yankees -1.5 (+money) (1u) | Alt: NYY TT Over 4.5 (0.5u)
```
Bankroll note: 1u = 1% of bankroll. Line shop; I’ll note key numbers below.
---
## Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers — **Under 7.5** (1u)
**Pitching:** Red-hot **Freddy Peralta** just took **NL Pitcher of the Month** with a **0.32 ERA in August (4–0)** and 6 scoreless/8K in his last start; **16–5, 2.58 ERA** overall and the K% is elite. Ranger **Su
**Card posted ~9:00am PT.** I cap using pitching form, matchup splits, bullpen context, park/weather, and market movement. Sources cited inline where relevant. Fade/Follow — GL to all
---
## TL;DR (Picks & Units)
```
PHI @ MIL — Under 7.5 (1u)
LAD @ PIT — Under 7.0 (1u) | Alt: F5 Under 3.5 (0.5u)
CLE @ TB — Over 8.5 (1u) | Alt: TB TT Over 4.5 (0.5u)
LAA @ KC — Pass — | Lean: LAA +1.5 small
CWS @ MIN — Over 8.5 (1u)
NYY @ HOU — Yankees -1.5 (+money) (1u) | Alt: NYY TT Over 4.5 (0.5u)
```
Bankroll note: 1u = 1% of bankroll. Line shop; I’ll note key numbers below.
---
## Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers — **Under 7.5** (1u)
**Pitching:** Red-hot **Freddy Peralta** just took **NL Pitcher of the Month** with a **0.32 ERA in August (4–0)** and 6 scoreless/8K in his last start; **16–5, 2.58 ERA** overall and the K% is elite. Ranger **Su