After a red-hot stretch last week, SBR's Dustin Saracini has finally come back down to earth. Don't expect the skid to last long though as he shares his best No Run First Inning (NRFI) bets for Tuesday, July 29th:
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees (-128 at FanDuel)
Joe Boyle (1.42 ERA) vs. Max Fried (2.62 ERA)
NRFI record: Rays (54-53) vs. Yankees (50-56)
"Yeah, the Yankees just don't intimidate anyone as long as Aaron Judge isn't in the lineup, so we'll go with *checks notes* Joe Boyle to get us three simple outs today as part of our best NRFI bets today. For what it's worth, Boyle has been quite effective this season, allowing just three earned runs across 19 innings of work. The Rays always do a good job of finding talent for scraps, so I'll trust them against the Yankees today.
On the other side is Mr. Fried, who doesn't need an introduction. Tampa is hitting just .109 against the stud lefty, and owns a .272 xwOBA in this specific matchup. The numbers are adding up here, and at -128 betting odds, this is a no-brainer to lock in."
Atlanta Braves vs. Kansas City Royals (+100 at DraftKings)
Erick Fedde (5.22 ERA) vs. Seth Lugo (2.95 ERA)
NRFI record: Braves (49-59) vs. Royals (66-41)
"There's no doubt about it - Fedde has been an unmitigated disaster this season. He ranks next to last in xwOBA, K percentage, and whiff percentage among qualified starters. Whatever the statistic, he's likely at the bottom of the page. So why am I backing him as part of our best NRFI bets today? Well, the value we're getting here is nice, he'll be making his Braves debut, and he actually pitches well against the Royals.
Over 54 plate appearances, Kansas City is hitting .245, but more importantly, it's the top of the order that hasn't been able to do much against him. Bobby Witt (1-for-6) and Jonathan India (2-for-6) can't seem to square Fedde up, and we'll rely on that one more time for three outs.
On the other side, we have Lugo, who's fresh off signing a two-year extension with the Royals. The ace is striking the Braves out at a 25% clip across 94 plate appearances, and is limiting the struggling offense to a .225 xBA.
I'd price this closer to -105 betting odds (like you're seeing at FanDuel) over the even-money look we're getting at DraftKings."
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees (-128 at FanDuel)
Joe Boyle (1.42 ERA) vs. Max Fried (2.62 ERA)
NRFI record: Rays (54-53) vs. Yankees (50-56)
"Yeah, the Yankees just don't intimidate anyone as long as Aaron Judge isn't in the lineup, so we'll go with *checks notes* Joe Boyle to get us three simple outs today as part of our best NRFI bets today. For what it's worth, Boyle has been quite effective this season, allowing just three earned runs across 19 innings of work. The Rays always do a good job of finding talent for scraps, so I'll trust them against the Yankees today.
On the other side is Mr. Fried, who doesn't need an introduction. Tampa is hitting just .109 against the stud lefty, and owns a .272 xwOBA in this specific matchup. The numbers are adding up here, and at -128 betting odds, this is a no-brainer to lock in."
Atlanta Braves vs. Kansas City Royals (+100 at DraftKings)
Erick Fedde (5.22 ERA) vs. Seth Lugo (2.95 ERA)
NRFI record: Braves (49-59) vs. Royals (66-41)
"There's no doubt about it - Fedde has been an unmitigated disaster this season. He ranks next to last in xwOBA, K percentage, and whiff percentage among qualified starters. Whatever the statistic, he's likely at the bottom of the page. So why am I backing him as part of our best NRFI bets today? Well, the value we're getting here is nice, he'll be making his Braves debut, and he actually pitches well against the Royals.
Over 54 plate appearances, Kansas City is hitting .245, but more importantly, it's the top of the order that hasn't been able to do much against him. Bobby Witt (1-for-6) and Jonathan India (2-for-6) can't seem to square Fedde up, and we'll rely on that one more time for three outs.
On the other side, we have Lugo, who's fresh off signing a two-year extension with the Royals. The ace is striking the Braves out at a 25% clip across 94 plate appearances, and is limiting the struggling offense to a .225 xBA.
I'd price this closer to -105 betting odds (like you're seeing at FanDuel) over the even-money look we're getting at DraftKings."