SBR's Dustin Saracini shares his best No Run First Inning (NRFI) bets for Monday, July 28th (56-38, +8.19 YTD):
Atlanta Braves vs. Kansas City Royals (+100 at DraftKings)
Spencer Strider (3.72 ERA) vs. Rich Hill (1.80 ERA)
NRFI record: Braves (46-58) vs. Royals (66-40)
"We've got Strider on the mound and the best NRFI team in baseball, and we're getting even-money value on this play? You better believe we're going to take advantage as part of our best NRFI bets today.
Strider has slowly but surely returned to his normal self, allowing just three earned runs across his last 11 innings pitched. He'll get a Royals team that simply can't score in the first frame this year. It'll all start with the leadoff hitter, Jonathan India, who's just 1-for-5 against Strider in his career. Let's have a clean bottom of the first.
We get Mr. Hill, who's coming off a strong first start of his season, pitching five innings of one-run baseball against the Chicago Cubs, in the top of the opening frame today. We've got a pretty large sample size here, too. Across 59 plate appearances, Atlanta owns just a .214 xBA against Hill. He's shut down Ronald Acuna (1-for-9), Matt Olson (1-for-10), and Marcell Ozuna (1-for-7). That'll play.
It's not often we get an even-money wager at five-star confidence, but here we are - let's fire it up."
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-145 at DraftKings)
Matthew Boyd (2.20 ERA) vs. Jacob Misiorowski (2.46 ERA)
NRFI record: Cubs (63-43) vs. Brewers (62-43)
"Two of the best starters in MLB just screams NRFI to me, and so we are going to ride them both as part of our best NRFI bets today.
Boyd is striking this Brewers team out at a 41% clip across 22 plate appearances, which should make you feel warm and fuzzy inside as we look for six simple outs. Among the Brewers hitters who struggle versus Boyd is Christian Yelich, who's 1-for-5 with two strikeouts against the left-hander.
The rookie will bring us home here. Misiorowski has allowed just one earned run across his last 9 2/3 innings pitched and has allowed a run in the first frame just once in six starts this season. Look for the electric righty to have a clean first as a result.
I'd price this closer to -130 betting odds than the -145 we're getting at DraftKings. Feel free to avoid FanDuel today, which has this NRFI priced at -150."
Atlanta Braves vs. Kansas City Royals (+100 at DraftKings)
Spencer Strider (3.72 ERA) vs. Rich Hill (1.80 ERA)
NRFI record: Braves (46-58) vs. Royals (66-40)
"We've got Strider on the mound and the best NRFI team in baseball, and we're getting even-money value on this play? You better believe we're going to take advantage as part of our best NRFI bets today.
Strider has slowly but surely returned to his normal self, allowing just three earned runs across his last 11 innings pitched. He'll get a Royals team that simply can't score in the first frame this year. It'll all start with the leadoff hitter, Jonathan India, who's just 1-for-5 against Strider in his career. Let's have a clean bottom of the first.
We get Mr. Hill, who's coming off a strong first start of his season, pitching five innings of one-run baseball against the Chicago Cubs, in the top of the opening frame today. We've got a pretty large sample size here, too. Across 59 plate appearances, Atlanta owns just a .214 xBA against Hill. He's shut down Ronald Acuna (1-for-9), Matt Olson (1-for-10), and Marcell Ozuna (1-for-7). That'll play.
It's not often we get an even-money wager at five-star confidence, but here we are - let's fire it up."
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-145 at DraftKings)
Matthew Boyd (2.20 ERA) vs. Jacob Misiorowski (2.46 ERA)
NRFI record: Cubs (63-43) vs. Brewers (62-43)
"Two of the best starters in MLB just screams NRFI to me, and so we are going to ride them both as part of our best NRFI bets today.
Boyd is striking this Brewers team out at a 41% clip across 22 plate appearances, which should make you feel warm and fuzzy inside as we look for six simple outs. Among the Brewers hitters who struggle versus Boyd is Christian Yelich, who's 1-for-5 with two strikeouts against the left-hander.
The rookie will bring us home here. Misiorowski has allowed just one earned run across his last 9 2/3 innings pitched and has allowed a run in the first frame just once in six starts this season. Look for the electric righty to have a clean first as a result.
I'd price this closer to -130 betting odds than the -145 we're getting at DraftKings. Feel free to avoid FanDuel today, which has this NRFI priced at -150."